欧元区宏观监测 · 增长韧性使降息在2027年被排除在外

研报译文摘录

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 9 of this report. https://research.danskebank.com Macro Research Economic activity has proved more resilient than expected over the summer despite negative supply shocks from higher energy prices linked to the war in Iran and unusually warm weather. Euro area GDP rose by 0.4% q/q in Q2, up from flat growth in Q1 and well above expectations. The August PMIs suggest that solid growth momentum continued into Q3, with the composite PMI edging up to 52.1 from 52.0 in July, surprising to the upside. The improvement is still mainly driven by manufacturing, with the PMI rising to 52.7 from 51.9, supported by higher output and new orders. Indirect AI-related investment demand seems to be supporting, as firms in the euro area supply equipment and infrastructure for data centres and power systems. Fiscal policy is also turning more supportive, particularly through higher German public spending and less tightening in France than we expected. The services PMI was unchanged at 51.7 but still came in above expectations, with weakness in Germany and France offset by firmer activity in Southern Europe. Overall, the August PMIs point to rather solid Q3 growth around potential despite the recent shocks. Euro area HICP inflation rose as expected in August to 3.3% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in July, while core inflation declined to 2.4% y/y, below expectations of 2.5%. The rise in headline inflation was entirely driven by energy prices, with food inflation unchanged and core inflation lower. Momentum in core inflation remains low, with few signs of energy prices spilling over to underlying inflation. Core inflation rose around 0.17% m/m s.a., taking the 3m/3m SAAR (which measures current annualised momentum) down to 2.6% from 2.7%. The loss of momentum was due to services momentum fading to just 0.1% m/m s.a., while goods momentum is slowly ticking higher from a very low starting point. Broader non-energy inflation momentum is also running close to 2%, pointing to contained underlying inflation. The combination of growth around potential and contained underlying inflation has led us to revise our ECB call (see Research Euro Area: New ECB call –No cuts in 2027 , 27 August) . We continue to expect a final 25bp hike in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but now see the ECB keeping it there throughout 2027 rather than cut it back to 2.00%. The more resilient growth backdrop removes the need for cuts next year, while contained underlying inflation limits the need for more than one additional hike. With the deposit rate at 2.50% from September and onwards , policy will be at the upper end of the ECB’s estimated neutral range. Further hikes would take policy into restrictive territory, which we do not think the inflation data justifies given the absence of energy-related spillovers to underlying inflation. Risks to our call are balanced, with stronger spillovers or low gas inventories posing upside risks, while slower wage growth or a weakening labour market could still lead to cuts before the end of 2027. Euro Area Macro Monitor Growth resilience takes rate cuts off the table in 2027 2 September 2026 Assistant Analyst Ella Schlüntz eschl@danskebank.dk Senior Analyst, euro area economist Rune Thyge Johansen +45 40 26 04 37 rujo@danskebank.dk Today’s key points Headline inflation to average 3.0% y/y in 2026 and 2.3% y/y in 2027. Growth expected at 0.7% y/y in 2026 and 1.2% y/y in 2027. ECB to hike by 25bp in September and keep the deposit rate at 2.50% in 2027 Growth is holding up better than expected Source: Eurostat, Danske Bank, S&P Global, Macrobond Very low non-energy inflation momentum Source: ECB, Macrobond 2 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 欧元区 欧元区：GDP增长预测 欧元区：PMI与GDP增长 资料来源：欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 欧元区：制造业景气与投资 欧元区：消费者信心与私人消费 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟统计局、欧盟委员会、Macrobond Financial 欧元区：信贷增长 欧元区：失业率与工资增长 资料来源：欧洲央行、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：欧洲央行、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 3 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 欧元区：核心通胀 欧元区：HICP通胀 资料来源：欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟统计局、德国联邦统计局、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 德国 德国：PMI与GDP增长 德国：信贷增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：德意志联邦银行、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 德国：制造业景气与投资 德国：消费者信心与私人消费 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟委员会、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 4 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 德国：失业率与PMI 德国：失业率与工资增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、欧盟统计局、德意志联邦银行、Macrobond Financial 德国：售价预期 德国：金融市场 资料来源：欧盟委员会、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：德意志交易所、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 法国 法国：PMI与GDP增长 法国：信贷增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 5 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 法国：制造业景气与投资 法国：消费者信心与私人消费 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟委员会、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 法国：失业率与PMI 法国：失业率与工资增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 法国：售价预期 法国：金融市场 资料来源：欧盟委员会、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：泛欧交易所、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 6 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 意大利 意大利：PMI与GDP增长 意大利：信贷增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 意大利：制造业景气与投资 意大利：消费者信心与私人消费 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟委员会、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank 意大利：失业率与PMI 意大利：失业率与工资增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、欧盟统计局、意大利国家统计局、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 7 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 意大利：价格预期 意大利：金融市场 资料来源：欧盟委员会、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：富时、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 西班牙 西班牙：PMI与GDP增长 西班牙：信贷增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 西班牙：制造业景气与投资 西班牙：消费者信心与私人消费 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧盟委员会、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 8 | 2年9月2026 https://research.danskebank.com 西班牙：失业率与PMI 西班牙：失业率与工资增长 资料来源：标普全球、欧盟统计局、Macrobond Financial 资料来源：欧洲央行、欧盟统计局、劳动与社会经济部、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 西班牙：价格预期 西班牙：金融市场 资料来源：欧盟委员会、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 资料来源：马德里证券交易所、Macrobond Financial、Danske Bank 9 | 2年9月2026日 https://research.danskebank.com 一般免责声明和披露 本研究报告由丹麦银行（Danske Bank A/S）编制。

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丹麦银行

发布时间

2026/09/02

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