暗夜过境

关键论点

• 美伊新一轮袭击将布伦特原油推高至每桶100美元上方，令外交协议更加渺茫，但双方均有经济动力控制军费并部分重开霍尔木兹海峡。
• 阿曼沿海安全航运走廊及关闭应答器的“暗航”运输使石油仍在流动；暗航量估计至少500万桶/日，计入船对船转运后可达800万桶/日。
• 叠加红海管道分流约300万桶/日和非海湾地区供应增加120万桶/日，海湾剩余供应缺口收窄至约580万桶/日；若明年过境量达1200万桶/日，缺口将降至200万桶/日以下。
• 经合组织库存充裕，可覆盖缺口近两年，亚洲高达500万桶/日的需求下降也已吸收部分缺口，因此布伦特原油应在明年年中前回落至战前水平附近。
• 成品油和天然气市场更为紧张：海湾炼油能力受损及俄罗斯产量下降限制成品油供应；卡塔尔LNG产量降至约产能的20%且无替代出口路线，天然气价格在明年之前将高于战前水平。

对应原文证据

1. But even without a diplomatic solution, a gradual de-escalation is likely to begin in the coming months, and thanks to tankers’ covert transits through the strait, oil shipments from the Gulf region should gradually recover.
2. The outlook for petroleum products and natural gas is less favorable.
3. While Iran is stepping up attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military bases in the region, the U.S. is striking targets along the Iranian coast as well as oil tankers flying an Iranian flag.