加拿大丰业银行经济研究 · 2026/09/03

全球经济 · 每日要点

可引用研究简报

一句话结论

加拿大丰业银行经济部指出，由于美国与伊朗冲突，油价上涨，WTI期货上涨1-2%。预计日本央行将于9月18日加息25个基点，导致日本国债上涨和日元走强。加拿大央行10月加息概率30%被低估。关键数据包括美国就业、加拿大贸易和ISM服务业。

机构: 加拿大丰业银行经济研究
发布时间: 2026/09/03
时间范围: short-term

关键数字：WTI原油当日变动 1.5%; 美国8月挑战者裁员人数 52,881; 日本央行预期加息 +25个基点; 市场隐含的加拿大央行10月28日加息概率 30%; 美国ISM非制造业共识 54.1; 加拿大7月贸易收支最新 39亿加元

主要风险：美国与伊朗冲突可能进一步升级，推高油价。; 日本央行若鹰派成员获得支持，可能意外加大加息幅度或频率。; 美国关税或政治干扰可能影响市场情绪。; 通胀数据可能意外上行，迫使央行采取行动。

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全球经济 · 每日要点

访问我们的网站 scotiabank.com/economics | 在推特上关注我们 @ScotiaEconomics | 通过电子邮件联系我们 scotia.economics@scotiabank.com 贡献者德里克·霍尔特资本市场经济学副总裁兼主管丰业银行经济部 416.863.7707 derek.holt@scotiabank.com 全球经济每日要点 9月3,日 2026 @ 美东时间7:30 要点： • 油价再次上涨，美国仍深陷与伊朗的冲突之中 • 今日只是在为明日非农和加拿大就业报告预热 • 日本国债上涨，因日本央行压制鹰派异见 • 加拿大贸易数据为进入第三季度的动能提供参考 • 美国：裁员增加，ISM服务业指数、贸易数据和初请失业金数据待公布 • 美联储官员在静默期前密集表态 • 加拿大今日的投资公告将是众多公告中的第一个 • 马来西亚国家银行温和鹰派按兵不动 • 瑞士法郎在GDP和CPI双双超预期后上涨今晨中东局势不妙。随着美国和伊朗互相打击，WTI和布伦特原油价格上涨约1%至2%%。期货价格持续走高（图表1）。从他们的一些评论来看，共和党终于意识到没有明确的出路，他们在距离中期选举还有两个月之际陷入恐慌。通过把华盛顿变成现实版《南方公园》的“指责加拿大”剧本来转移注意力也无济于事。至于其他方面，今日市场的任何波动都只是在为明日就业报告的潜在爆炸性数据预热。来自通常所谓的“知情人士”的言论表明，日本央行倾向于在9月+25bp日加息18个基点，压制了委员会中一位此前试图为扩大加息幅度和频率打开大门的鹰派异见者。日本国债收益率走低，呈牛市趋陡形态，长端收益率下降8至9 bp个基点。这通过套利交易为其他基准市场带来些许缓解，英国国债和欧元区政府债券上涨，而加拿大和美国国债则保持平稳。日元表现强劲，资金回流日本国债。股市涨跌互现，但北美期货和欧洲现货市场总体变化不大。市场继续定价加拿大央行在10月30%日加息的可能性约为28%，并在12月前进一步加息。从行长麦克勒姆昨日的讲话方式（此处回顾）来看，我不会排除这种定价偏轻的可能性。顺便说一句，对于不太了解情况的人来说，那是该国的中央银行；在美国没有分支机构，哈哈！！北美数据发布仅是为周五就业报告预热明日美国和加拿大8月就业报告将是本周的主要焦点。两国今晨发布一些次要数据以消磨时间。周四，9月3日图表1 图表2 国家日期时间指标时期 BNS 共识前值 CA 09-03 08:30 商品贸易账（十亿加元） 7月 -- 3.2 3.9 CA 09-03 08:30 生产率（环比年率）第二季度 -- -- 2 US -0.509 -03:08 初请失业金人数（千人） 8月30 000 29 205 US 205203 09:-03 续请失业金人数（千人） 8月08 30 000 22 US 17901785 1778:09 生产率（环比年率）第二季度终值 -- -03 08 US 302 1.4:1.4 贸易账（十亿美元） 7月 09 -03 08 US 30-90 -90.3:-73.3 单位劳动力成本（环比年率）第二季度终值 -- 09 -03 US 0830 2:1.3 美联储沃勒主持温和对话 US 1.309 -03:08 ISM非制造业综合指数 8月 30 09 -03 US 1000 54.5:54.1 美联储哈马克致开幕词 US 54.109 -03:15 美联储古尔斯比致闭幕词 00 09 -03 15 55 15 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月千人 115 165

2025 2026 美国挑战者企业裁员 000千人，未经季调资料来源：丰业银行经济部，挑战者，格雷与圣诞公司。 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 8月-26 9月-26 10月-26 11月-26 12月-26 1月-27 2月-27 3月-27 4月-27 5月-27 6月-27 7月-27 8月-27 9月-27 10月-27 11月-27 12月-27 WTI期货美元/桶资料来源：丰业银行经济部，彭博。 3月11日 4月22日 3月2日 2月2日 3月25日 4月8日 6月23日 5月6日 5月14日 7月10日 1月2日

2 全球经济 9月3, 2026 每日要点非农和加拿大就业数据的预览已在我每周报告中提供。丰业银行内部预测非农就业人数为+30千人，加拿大就业人数为+20千人。加拿大今早（东部时间8:30）更新7月贸易数据。出口量一直表现强劲，因此我不会对出现一定放缓感到意外。加拿大还将在今早（东部时间2:8）更新第二季度劳动生产率数据，在GDP强劲增长后，该数据可能录得稳健增长。8月采购经理人指数（东部时间30:9）关注度较低，该指数在追踪经济反弹方面表现并不十分理想。美国贸易逆差预计将在今早7月数据更新（东部时间30:8）中扩大。我估计将从7月的-美国30亿美元增加到约-$73亿美元（8月）。更重要的可能是8月美国ISM服务业指数（东部时间$90）。该指数预计与7月的10读数相比变化不大，但经常出人意料。关注物价支付分项，该分项可能仍将非常火热，而就业分项今年以来显示就业岗位减少的次数多于增加。此外，FOMC沟通静默期将于周六开始，这导致官员们急于在此之前发表观点。州长沃勒将于东部时间54.1:8发表讲话，随后是极端鹰派的哈马克于东部时间30下午3，以及芝加哥联储的古尔斯比于东部时间3:55。昨天听取纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话让我觉得他并不确信需要加息。美国挑战者企业裁员8月份升至52,881人。这些数据未经季节性调整，且处于8月份的正常范围内。最后，卡尼总理将于今早东部时间10宣布“对加拿大制造业的历史性投资”。地点在桑德贝，那里的制造商包括地铁列车制造商，其中包括今年早些时候授予的为多伦多公车局制造70列“最先进”六节车厢列车的合同。距离投资峰会约一周半时间，未来几天我们应预期会有更多预先公告。隔夜市场动态马来西亚央行隔夜将政策利率维持在2.75%，与广泛预期一致。其表态略显偏鹰派，并指出通胀相对温和。这主要归因于燃料补贴和价格上限抑制了价格。瑞郎因瑞士GDP和通胀数据强于预期而小幅上涨。第二季度GDP按季环比年化增长2%（市场预期1.9%%），部分涨幅归因于第二季度数据小幅下修（从1.7%%修正至1%）。CPI环比上涨0.6%%（市场预期0.7%%）。这仍使通胀同比仅上升0.4%%（市场预期0%%），核心通胀同比0.8%%（市场预期0.8%%）。 0.4% 0.3% -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2024 2026 2023 2004 2008 2021 2003 2001 2000 2006 2018 2025 2005 平均 2013 2002 2017 2014 2019 2016 2010 2020 2011 2007 2009 2015 资料来源：丰业银行经济部，欧盟统计局。环比百分比变化，未经季调比较瑞士核心CPI所有月份8月份图表 2012

3 全球经济 9月3,日 2026 每日要点固定收益上次 1日变化 1周变化上次 1日变化 1周变化上次 1日变化 1周变化上次 1日变化 1周变化美国 4.36 4.37 4.23 4.53 4.53 4.40 4.77 4.78 4.68 5.25 5.26 5.19 加拿大 - 加拿大央行 2.25 加拿大 3.09 3.10 2.97 3.40 3.42 3.30 3.79 3.79 3.71 4.16 4.17 4.13 德国 2.97 3.00 2.86 3.10 3.12 2.98 3.35 3.38 3.25 3.83 3.84 3.76 美国 - 美联储 3.75 日本 1.85 1.87 1.70 2.28 2.32 2.16 2.96 3.03 2.91 4.08 4.17 4.08 英国 4.56 4.62 4.36 4.66 4.72 4.58 5.17 5.23 5.03 5.82 5.87 5.76 英格兰 - 英格兰银行 3.75 加拿大 -127 -127 -127 -113 -112 -110 -99 -99 -97 -109 -109 -106 欧元区 - 欧洲央行 2.40 德国 -139 -137 -137 -143 -141 -142 -142 -140 -142 -142 -142 -144 日本 -252 -250 -254 -225 -222 -224 -182 -175 -177 -117 -108 -112 日本 - 日本央行 1.00 英国 19 24 12 13 18 17 40 45 35 57 61 56 股票墨西哥 - 墨西哥央行 6.50 1 日变化 1个月 S&P/TSX 0.7 2.5 澳大利亚 - 澳大利亚央行 4.35 道琼斯 30 0.6 -0.2 标普 500 0.5 0.9 新西兰 - 新西兰央行 2.75 纳斯达克 0.5 1.2 DAX 0.0 -0.6 富时 0.3 -0.6 日经 -0.2 0.7 加拿大 - 加拿大央行 10月 28, 2026 恒生 -0.4 -3.1 CAC -0.2 -4.1 美国 - 美联储 9月 16, 2026 大宗商品 WTI原油 1.5 15.0 英格兰 - 英格兰银行 9月 17, 2026 天然气 1.1 7.5 黄金 1.2 9.3 欧元区 - 欧洲央行 9月 10, 2026 白银 0.7 13.1 CRB指数 -0.1 9.7 日本 - 日本央行 9月 18, 2026 汇率 USDCAD -0.3 -1.7 墨西哥 - 墨西哥央行 9月 24, 2026 EURUSD 0.2 0.9 USDJPY -1.6 -0.7 澳大利亚 - 澳大利亚央行 9月 29, 2026 AUDUSD 0.3 2.8 GBPUSD 0.0 0.4 新西兰 - 新西兰央行 10月 27, 2026 USDCHF -0.5 -0.2 与美国利差（基点）：政府收益率曲线（%）： 2年期 5年期 10年期 30年期 10.3 上次 36092 53062 7667 26218 25850 变化 265.9 295.1 35.1 118.1 33.0 -111.2 -97.9 -18.5 % 变化： -0.5 7.0 1周 -2.0 水平 -2.9 -0.7 10789 64214 25213 8262 % 变化： 1年 25.5 17.2 18.9 22.0 9.6 17.6 53.1 % 变化： -0.8 -0.1 0.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.4 3.8 -2.4 2.8 10.6 -3.6 -5.0 44.4 24.5 59.6 水平水平 2.99 -0.46 0.03 416.84 92.39 4432.94 65.77 1.38 51.26 0.45 -0.0041 1.3802 1.1610 156.11 0.7193 1.3491 0.8088 -0.0040 0.0022 -2.6000 0.0024 0.0005 当前利率中央银行下次会议日期 0.6 9.9 -0.4 -0.4 -2.1 -0.0 -0.8 0.1 -0.4 5.4 0.3 0.6 37.7

完整英文原文

Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707 derek.holt@scotiabank.com GLOBAL ECONOMICS DAILY POINTS September 3, 2026 @ 7:30 EST KEY POINTS: • Oil is up again as the US remains trapped in conflict with Iran • Today will merely pass the time before nonfarm, Canadian jobs tomorrow • JGBs rally as the BoJ tamps down a hawkish outlier • Canadian trade to inform momentum into Q3 • US: layoffs up, ISM - services, trade and claims on tap • FOMC officials cram in views before blackout • Canada ’ s investment announcement today will be the first of many • Negara delivered a mildly hawkish hold • Swiss franc rallies after GDP, CPI both beat Oil ’ s not well in the Middle East this morning. Prices are up by about 1 – 2% across WTI and Brent as the US and Iran swapped strikes. Futures prices are creeping higher (chart 1). Based on some comments from them it ’ s finally sinking in within the GOP that there is no clear way out of it as they panic with two months to go before the midterms. Diverting attention by turning Washington into a real - life ‘ blame Canada ’ South Park sequel won ’ t help either. As for the rest, any market moves today are merely passing the time before potential fireworks with tomorrow ’ s jobs reports. Talk from the usual ‘ people familiar with the matter ’ indicates that the BoJ is leaning toward +25bps on September 18 th , tamping down a hawkish outlier on the Board who previously tried to open the door to upsizing and a greater frequency of hikes. JGB yields are lower in bull flattener fashion with the long - end down by 8 – 9 bps. This is causing slight relief through the carry trade into other benchmarks as gilts and EGBs rally while Canada and the US tread water. The yen is outperforming as flow comes back into JGBs. Stocks are mixed but generally little changed across N.A. futures and European cash markets. Markets continue to price about a 30% chance of a Bank of Canada hike on October 28 th and most of hike by December. The way Governor Macklem spoke yesterday (recap here ), I wouldn ’ t shut the door on the view that such pricing is light. By the way, and for the rather less enlightened, that's the country's central bank; it has no branches in the US lol!! N.A. RELEASES WILL MERELY TEASE BEFORE FRIDAY ’ S JOBS Tomorrow ’ s US payrolls and Canadian jobs reports for August will be the main focus over the duration of the week. The two countries release a few sideshows to bide the time this morning. On Deck for Thursday, September 3 rd Chart 1 Chart 2 Country Date Time Indicator Period BNS Consensus Latest CA 09-03 08:30 Merchandise Trade Balance (C$ bn) Jul -- 3.2 3.9 CA 09-03 08:30 Productivity (q/q a.r.) 2Q -- -- -0.5 US 09-03 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (000s) Aug 29 205 205 203 US 09-03 08:30 Continuing Claims (000s) Aug 22 1790 1785 1778 US 09-03 08:30 Productivity (q/q a.r.) 2Q F -- 1.4 1.4 US 09-03 08:30 Trade Balance (US$ bn) Jul -90 -90.3 -73.3 US 09-03 08:30 Unit Labor Costs (q/q a.r.) 2Q F -- 1.3 1.3 US 09-03 08:30 Fed's Waller in Moderated Conversation US 09-03 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Aug 54.5 54.1 54.1 US 09-03 15:00 Fed's Hammack Gives Opening Remarks US 09-03 15:55 Fed's Goolsbee Gives Closing Remarks 15 65 115 165 215 265 315 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Thousands 2023 2024 2025 2026 US Challenger Job Cuts 000s of jobs, NSA Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 Nov-26 Dec-26 Jan-27 Feb-27 Mar-27 Apr-27 May-27 Jun-27 Jul-27 Aug-27 Sep-27 Oct-27 Nov-27 Dec-27 WTI Futures USD/bbl Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg. Mar. 11th Apr. 22nd Mar. 2nd Feb. 2nd Mar 25th Apr. 8th Jun 23rd May. 6th May 14th Jul 10th Jan 2nd

2 Global Economics September 3, 2026 DAILY POINTS Previews for nonfarm and Canadian jobs were offered in my weekly . Scotia ’ s house calls are +30k for nonfarm and +20k for Canadian jobs. Canada refreshes trade figures for July this morning (8:30amET). Export volumes have been on a tear so I wouldn't be surprised to see some moderation. Canada also refreshes labour productivity figures for Q2 that might post a solid gain after strong GDP (8:30amET). Little watched PMIs for August (9:30amET) have not performed terribly well at tracking the economic rebound. The US trade deficit is expected to blow out in this morning's July update (8:30amET). I estimate it will increase from - US$73billion in July to about - $90 billion in August. More important may be US ISM - services for August (10amET). It ’ s expected to be little changed from the 54.1 reading in July but often surprises. Watch prices paid that are probably going to remain very hot, while the employment subindex has been indicating job losses more often than gains so far this year. And the arrival on Saturday of the FOMC communications blackout is causing of rush of officials seeking to jam in their views beforehand. Governor Waller speaks at 8:30amET and will be followed by uber - hawk Hammack at 3pmET and Chicago ’ s Goolsbee at 3:55pmET. Listening to NY Fed President Williams yesterday had me thinking he is not convinced by the need to be raising rates. US Challenger job cuts climbed to 52,881 in August. The figures are not seasonally adjusted and they were within the normal range for a month of August. Lastly, PM Carney will announce “ an historic investment in Canadian manufacturing ” this morning at 10amET. It ’ s in Thunder Bay where manufacturers include subway train cars including a contract awarded earlier this year to make 70 “ state of the art ” six - car trains for the TTC. With the Investment Summit about a week - and - a - half away we should be expecting more pre - announcements in the coming days. LIGHT OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS Bank Negara Malaysia held its policy rate at 2.75% overnight as widely expected. It sounded like a mildly hawkish hold that observed inflation is relatively tame. That's largely because of fuel subsidies and caps that have kept prices down. The Swiss franc rallied a touch on the back of stronger than expected GDP and inflation figures. Q2 GDP was up by 1.9% q/q SAAR (consensus 1.7%) with some of the beat due to a small downward revision to Q1 (0.6% from 0.7%). CPI increased by 0.4% m/m (consensus 0%). That still leaves inflation running at just 0.8% y/y (0.8% consensus) with core at 0.4% y/y (consensus 0.3%). -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2024 2026 2023 2004 2008 2021 2003 2001 2000 2006 2018 2025 2005 2013 Average 2002 2017 2014 2019 2016 2010 2020 2011 2007 2009 2015 2012 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Eurostat. m/m % change, NSA Comparing Swiss Core CPI for All Months of August Chart 3

3 Global Economics September 3, 2026 DAILY POINTS Fixed Income Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk U.S. 4.36 4.37 4.23 4.53 4.53 4.40 4.77 4.78 4.68 5.25 5.26 5.19 Canada - BoC 2.25 CANADA 3.09 3.10 2.97 3.40 3.42 3.30 3.79 3.79 3.71 4.16 4.17 4.13 GERMANY 2.97 3.00 2.86 3.10 3.12 2.98 3.35 3.38 3.25 3.83 3.84 3.76 US - Fed 3.75 JAPAN 1.85 1.87 1.70 2.28 2.32 2.16 2.96 3.03 2.91 4.08 4.17 4.08 U.K. 4.56 4.62 4.36 4.66 4.72 4.58 5.17 5.23 5.03 5.82 5.87 5.76 England - BoE 3.75 CANADA -127 -127 -127 -113 -112 -110 -99 -99 -97 -109 -109 -106 Euro zone - ECB 2.40 GERMANY -139 -137 -137 -143 -141 -142 -142 -140 -142 -142 -142 -144 JAPAN -252 -250 -254 -225 -222 -224 -182 -175 -177 -117 -108 -112 Japan - BoJ 1.00 U.K. 19 24 12 13 18 17 40 45 35 57 61 56 Equities Mexico - Banxico 6.50 1 Day 1-mo S&P/TSX 0.7 2.5 Australia - RBA 4.35 Dow 30 0.6 -0.2 S&P 500 0.5 0.9 New Zealand - RBNZ 2.75 Nasdaq 0.5 1.2 DAX 0.0 -0.6 FTSE 0.3 -0.6 Nikkei -0.2 0.7 Canada - BoC Oct 28, 2026 Hang Seng -0.4 -3.1 CAC -0.2 -4.1 US - Fed Sep 16, 2026 Commodities WTI Crude 1.5 15.0 England - BoE Sep 17, 2026 Natural Gas 1.1 7.5 Gold 1.2 9.3 Euro zone - ECB Sep 10, 2026 Silver 0.7 13.1 CRB Index -0.1 9.7 Japan - BoJ Sep 18, 2026 Currencies USDCAD -0.3 -1.7 Mexico - Banxico Sep 24, 2026 EURUSD 0.2 0.9 USDJPY -1.6 -0.7 Australia - RBA Sep 29, 2026 AUDUSD 0.3 2.8 GBPUSD 0.0 0.4 New Zealand - RBNZ Oct 27, 2026 USDCHF -0.5 -0.2 Spreads vs. U.S. (bps): Government Yield Curves (%): 2-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR 30-YEAR 10.3 Last 36092 53062 7667 26218 25850 Change 265.9 295.1 35.1 118.1 33.0 -111.2 -97.9 -18.5 % change: -0.5 7.0 1-wk -2.0 Level -2.9 -0.7 10789 64214 25213 8262 % change: 1-yr 25.5 17.2 18.9 22.0 9.6 17.6 53.1 % change: -0.8 -0.1 0.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.4 3.8 -2.4 2.8 10.6 -3.6 -5.0 44.4 24.5 59.6 Level Level 2.99 -0.46 0.03 416.84 92.39 4432.94 65.77 1.38 51.26 0.45 -0.0041 1.3802 1.1610 156.11 0.7193 1.3491 0.8088 -0.0040 0.0022 -2.6000 0.0024 0.0005 Current Rate Central Banks Next Meeting Date 0.6 9.9 -0.4 -0.4 -2.1 -0.0 -0.8 0.1 -0.4 5.4 0.3 0.6 37.7

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September 3, 2026 DAILY POINTS 4 Global Economics This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. These reports are provided to you for informational purposes only. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any financial instrument, nor shall this report be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The information contained in this report is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “ call to action ” or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. Scotiabank may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed this report and may have positions, or be in the process of acquiring or disposing of positions, referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and any of their respective officers, directors and employees may from time to time take positions in currencies, act as managers, co - managers or underwriters of a public offering or act as principals or agents, deal in, own or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities or related derivatives. As a result of these actions, Scotiabank may receive remuneration. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. Officers, directors and employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations. Any securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Scotiabank recommends that investors independently evaluate any issuer and security discussed in this report, and consult with any advisors they deem necessary prior to making any investment. This report and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank. Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with “ Global Banking and Markets ”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotiabank (Ireland) Designated Activity Company; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized users of the Scotiabank mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V, Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat, and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities. Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

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关键论点

由于美国与伊朗冲突，油价上涨，WTI和布伦特原油上涨1-2%。
日本央行可能于9月18日加息25个基点，导致日本国债上涨和日元表现超群。
市场对加拿大央行10月加息概率30%的定价可能偏低，鉴于麦克勒姆的鹰派言论。
美国ISM服务业预计变动不大，为54.1，但物价支付指数仍高。
加拿大贸易顺差在强劲出口后可能放缓。

风险

美国与伊朗冲突可能进一步升级，推高油价。
日本央行若鹰派成员获得支持，可能意外加大加息幅度或频率。
美国关税或政治干扰可能影响市场情绪。
通胀数据可能意外上行，迫使央行采取行动。