加拿大丰业银行经济研究 · 2026/09/04

全球经济 · 每日要点

可引用研究简报

一句话结论

该报告展望了即将公布的美国和加拿大就业数据，分析了潜在的市场影响和行业驱动因素，同时指出德国工厂订单强劲及当前市场状况。

机构: 加拿大丰业银行经济研究
发布时间: 2026/09/04
时间范围: near-term · intraday

关键数字：加拿大8月就业人数 2万（丰业银行），市场预期1.5万; 加拿大8月失业率 6.3%（丰业银行），市场预期6.4%; 美国8月非农就业 +3万（丰业银行），市场预期5.5万; 美国8月失业率 4.2%（丰业银行），市场预期4.1%; 德国7月工厂订单月率+2.5%; 德国6月工厂订单月率+3.7%

主要风险：美国非农就业可能因季节性调整因素和行业下滑而远弱于预期。; 如果季节性调整偏差逆转，加拿大就业增长可能令人失望。; 贸易政策紧张可能抑制企业招聘和投资。; 美联储政策风险：如果沃什继续忽视劳动力市场走软，政策可能过紧，增加衰退风险。

条件 / 失效条件：如果像7月那样地方政府教育岗位继续下降。; 如果补贴削减的滞后影响持续存在。; 如果类似航空旅行暴跌的读数持续。

上下文：这是 Tlines 对公开机构研报的自动结构化结果，并非机构原话；引用结论时须同时保留上述机构与日期范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗

自动质量提示本研报仍可阅读，但 AI 分析或译文低于优选质量阈值，已进入改进队列。重要判断请同时核对官网原文。

完整研报正文

完整中文译文

全球经济 · 每日要点

访问我们的网站 scotiabank.com/economics | 在 Twitter 上关注我们 @ScotiaEconomics | 通过电子邮件联系我们 scotia.economics@scotiabank.com 撰稿人 Derek Holt 副总裁兼资本市场经济学主管加拿大丰业银行经济学 416.863.7707 derek.holt@scotiabank.com 全球经济每日要点 9月4,日 2026 上午 7:15（东部时间）要点： • 市场等待美国和加拿大双份就业报告 • 非农就业预期 • 加拿大就业将考验近期强劲势头 • 德国工厂表现非常好今天上午全球市场的表现几乎不值得关注，因为一旦美国非农数据公布，加上加拿大就业数据，情况可能会发生很大变化。仅作参考，主权债券收益率在大多数市场基本持平，但日本国债隔夜出现相当强劲的牛市趋陡，长端收益率下降约10bp个基点。股市涨跌互现，欧洲大多数现货市场小幅下跌，美国期货持平或小幅上涨。货币市场涨跌互现，除日元走软和韩元走强等温和例外外，波动不大。油价今晨小幅走弱。隔夜事态发展非常清淡。德国工厂最近表现非常好，工厂订单量连续三个月增加，其中7月份环比经季节调整后增长+2.5%%，6月份增长3.7%%。来自特朗普内阁中那些不负责任且未经选举的人士的强硬贸易言论增多。加拿大就业——考验动能加拿大统计局8月份劳动力调查将于东部时间上午8:30发布，希望网站能正常运行。该数据公布之际，近期势头强劲，过去三个月新增就业181千人，失业率从去年年底的6.8%%降至7月份的6.4%%。就业增长预期从大约零到25千人不等（丰业银行为20千人），异类数据再次来自提交较晚的外国公司。失业率预计将下滑至6.3%%，市场共识为不变6.4%%。任何意外都可能被加拿大央行淡然处之，该行通常关注趋势而非最新的即期数据。对于一个误差范围为正负57千人的95%%置信区间的噪音报告来说，这应该是正确的态度。如果我们只关注季节性调整因素和经季节调整后不变的就业变化，则就业变化情景指向增长（图表1）。由于计算中存在的近期偏差，新冠疫情后8月份同期的经季节调整因素呈现稳步上升趋势，这夸大了就业增长。8月份通常是未经季节调整就业下降的月份。第二个考虑因素是加拿大统计局采用的小组轮换方法，该方法在滚动六个月的目標人口中轮出第一个月，并用最新月份替换。这可能导致招聘或解雇的动量，因为基本上是对类似小组中的类似人群进行询问。图表2显示，当就业增长超过150千人或前三个月（本次为181千人）时，下个月通常会再次上升。周五（9月4日）接下来图表1图表2 国家日期时间指标时期 BNS 共识最新加拿大 09-04 08:30 就业变动（000千人，环比） 8月 20 15.0 75.1 加拿大 09-04 08:30 失业率（%） 8月 6.3 6.4 6.4 美国 09-04 08:30 平均时薪（环比） 8月 0.3 0.3 0.1 美国 09-04 08:30 平均时薪（同比） 8月 3.0 3.1 3.2 美国 09-04 08:30 平均每周工时 8月 -- 34.3 34.3 美国 09-04 08:30 非农就业报告（000千人，环比） 8月 30 55。

0 -23.0 美国 09-04 08:30 失业率 (%) 八月 4.2 4.1 4.1 美国 09-04 08:30 家庭就业报告 (000s 月环比) 八月 -- -- -87.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1976 1976 1976 1980 1981 1983 1983 1984 1987 1987 1989 1994 1997 1997 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2006 2010 2012 2017 2018 2018 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2025 2025 * 不包括 2020 和 2021。资料来源：Scotiabank Economics、加拿大统计局。加拿大就业人数月度变动，在累计就业增长达到 150K或以上后的月份，或过去 3个月内增长超过150k后的月份，月度变动（单位：000千人，经季调）。-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -100 -70 -40 -10 20 50 平均季节调整因子（2021-25）季节调整因子（2025）资料来源：Scotiabank Economics、加拿大统计局。加拿大劳动力调查八月就业情景（单位：000千人，经季调）季节调整因子（单位：000千人，未经季调）

2 全球经济九月 4, 2026 每日要点还有其他驱动因素和考量，我在周度预览中已指出（见此处），但另一个值得关注的是工时数据，最近表现强劲。基于第二季度2的交接和七月数据，工时环比年化增长率接近4%。八月的读数可能推动这一估计向上或向下修正，但这很重要，因为GDP等于工时乘以劳动生产率，因此这些数据表明经济动能。非农就业——沃什已表示将忽视该数据要让美联储主席沃什重视非农就业数据可能需要付出很大努力。因为他基本上已表示美国就业市场一切良好。在我定期撰写的文章中，我往往不同意这一观点，并认为他对数据施加了不健康的过滤，在解读双重使命的两方面发展时应当更加平衡。对就业人数变动的估计范围从约零（一个负面异常值）到+125千不等。丰业银行的估计为+30千（在76位预测者中排名第3位）。大多数估计在20千至100千之间。置信区间为正负122千。我的周报提供了完整预览（见此处），并解释了为何我认为沃什主席对就业市场状况的漠视具有误导性。这次结果可能出现的范围很广。图3展示了如果将去年八月的季节调整因子应用于未经季节调整的变动范围（历史上八月通常为增长）可能的结果范围。我认为中间情景（小幅下降和小幅增长）是最可能的结果，尽管存在噪声带。这将焦点转向其他考量。地方政府教育就业在七月下降约50千后，是否因ESSER资金到期开始影响教育就业而再次下降？美国更多学区报告新学年开始后进一步裁员。医疗行业招聘是否会因ACA补贴削减的滞后效应而继续减弱？休闲/酒店行业是否会因航空旅行骤降等读数而再次裁员？其他考量在我周度预览中提出，但我主要倾向于按行业自下而上分解估计。-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 -125 -50 25 100 175 250 325 400 475 2025 季节调整因子平均 2025-2022 资料来源：Scotiabank Economics、美国劳工统计局。美国八月非农就业情景（单位：000千人，经季调）季节调整因子（单位：000千人，未经季调）图3

3 全球经济九月 4, 2026 每日要点固定收益上次 1日 1周最新 1日 1周最新 1日 1周最新 1日 1周美国 4.35 4.34 4.35 4.52 4.52 4.48 4.77 4.77 4.72 5.25 5.25 5.21 加拿大 - 加拿大央行 2.25 加拿大 3.13 3.11 3.00 3.43 3.42 3.33 3.80 3.79 3.72 4.18 4.17 4.13 德国 2.97 2.96 2.91 3.09 3.08 3.02 3.35 3.34 3.28 3.83 3.81 3.77 美国 - 美联储 3.75 日本 1.84 1.85 1.71 2.24 2.28 2.19 2.92 2.96 2.93 4.00 4.08 4.12 英国 4.54 4.52 4.41 4.65 4.62 4.62 5.15 5.13 5.06 5.80 5.78 5.78 英格兰银行 3.75 加拿大 -122 -123 -134 -109 -110 -115 -97 -98 -100 -107 -108 -108 欧元区 - 欧洲央行 2.40 德国 -138 -138 -144 -143 -143 -146 -142 -143 -144 -142 -143 -144 日本 -251 -249 -263 -228 -223 -229 -185 -181 -179 -125 -117 -108 日本央行 1.00 英国 19 18 6 13 11 14 38 36 34 55 53 57 股票墨西哥 - 墨西哥央行 6.50 1 当日 1月 S&P/TSX 1.5 2.3 澳大利亚 - 澳大利亚央行 4.35 道琼斯 30 1.2 -0.7 标普 500 1.1 0.1 新西兰 - 新西兰央行 2.75 纳斯达克 1.4 -0.0 DAX 0.2 -0.5 富时 -0.0 -0.5 日经 1.3 1.7 加拿大央行十月 28, 2026 恒生 1.7 -0.8 CAC -0.2 -4.6 美联储九月 16, 2026 大宗商品 WTI原油 -0.9 19.4 英格兰银行九月 17, 2026 天然气 0.6 9.2 黄金 -0.1 9.6 欧洲央行九月 10, 2026 白银 -0.2 12.2 CRB指数 -0.0 11.6 日本央行九月 18, 2026 汇率 USDCAD 0.1 -1.8 墨西哥央行九月 24, 2026 EURUSD -0.0 0.8 USDJPY 0.3 -0.9 澳大利亚央行九月 29, 2026 AUDUSD 0.0 2.2 GBPUSD 0.1 0.6 新西兰央行十月 27, 2026 USDCHF 0.2 0.0 当前利率中央银行下次会议日期 0.0 10.5 -0.7 0.3 -2.4 0.5 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2 5.3 0.8 0.4 38.7 0.0017 1.3806 1.1622 156.32 0.7201 1.3536 0.8092 0.0012 -0.0004 0.5100 0.0000 0.0011 水平水平 2.93 -0.14 0.02 416.70 90.49 4468.35 66.84 -0.81 -4.57 -0.14 2.8 -4.7 1.5 8.5 0.3 0.7 42.5 26.0 64.3 % 变动： 1年 26.7 17.7 19.2 22.5 9.7 17.5 52.7 % 变动： 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.9 0.3 0.3 -5.0 806.5 437.6 -14.9 % 变动： 2.4 7.4 1周 -0.5 水平 -2.1 -1.5 10827 65021 25651 8271 63.7 上次 36633 53686 7748 26584 26067 变动 541.5 624.2 81.1 366.2 与美国利差（基点）：政府收益率曲线（%）： 2年 5年 10年 30年

完整英文原文

Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707 derek.holt@scotiabank.com GLOBAL ECONOMICS DAILY POINTS September 4, 2026 @ 7:15 EST KEY POINTS: • Markets await dual US, Canadian jobs reports • Nonfarm payrolls expectations • Canadian jobs to test strong recent momentum • German factories are doing very well It ’ s barely even worth noting how global markets are performing thus far this morning since a lot could change once US payrolls arrive with a side order of Canadian jobs. Just for giggles, sovereign yields are rather flat across most markets except a fairly strong bull flattener in JGBs overnight with the longer - end down by about 10bps. Stocks are mixed with small losses across most European cash markets and either flat to small gains in US futures. Currencies are mixed with small moves other than mild outliers to yen softness and won strength. Oil prices are exhibiting a touch of weakness this morning. Overnight developments were very light. Germany ’ s factories are doing very well of late with three consecutive increases in the volume of factory orders including +2.5% m/m SA in July and 3.7% in June. There was more tough trade talk from the unaccountable and unelected folks in Trump ’ s cabinet. CANADIAN JOBS—TESTING MOMENTUM Statcan ’ s Labour Force Survey for August will be released at 8:30amET with a hopefully fixed website. It arrives against the backdrop of solid recent momentum with 181k jobs created in the past three months while the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.8% at the end of last year to 6.4% in July. Estimates for job growth range from roughly zero to 25k (Scotia 20k) with outliers once again coming from foreign firms that submit late. The unemployment rate is forecast to slip to 6.3% with consensus at an unchanged 6.4%. Any surprises may be taken in stride by the BoC that generally looks to trends versus the latest spot data. That ’ s the way it should be for a noisy report with a +/ - 57k 95% confidence band. Scenarios for the change in jobs if the only things we focus upon are seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally unchanged changes in jobs point to gains (chart 1). There has been steady upward drift in the SA factors for like months of August coming out of the pandemic due to the recency bias in the way they are calculated that overstates job gains. August is normally a down - month for seasonally unadjusted jobs. A second consideration is the panel rotation methodology employed by Statcan that rotates out the first month and replaces it with the latest month in a rolling six - month target population of households. This can lead to momentum in hirings or firings by basically asking similar groups of individuals across similar panels. Chart 2 shows that when job growth has exceeded 150k or the prior three months (181k this time), the next month is usually up again. On Deck for Friday, September 4 th Chart 1 Chart 2 Country Date Time Indicator Period BNS Consensus Latest CA 09-04 08:30 Employment (000s m/m) Aug 20 15.0 75.1 CA 09-04 08:30 Unemployment Rate (%) Aug 6.3 6.4 6.4 US 09-04 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) Aug 0.3 0.3 0.1 US 09-04 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings (y/y) Aug 3.0 3.1 3.2 US 09-04 08:30 Average Weekly Hours Aug -- 34.3 34.3 US 09-04 08:30 Nonfarm Employment Report (000s m/m) Aug 30 55.0 -23.0 US 09-04 08:30 Unemployment Rate (%) Aug 4.2 4.1 4.1 US 09-04 08:30 Household Employment Report (000s m/m) Aug -- -- -87.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1976 1976 1976 1980 1981 1983 1983 1984 1987 1987 1989 1994 1997 1997 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2006 2010 2012 2017 2018 2018 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2025 2025 * excluding 2020 & 2021. Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. CA Jobs Month After Cumulative Job Growth of 150K or More in 3 Months m/m change in 000s, after a job growth of more than 150k in last 3 months -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -100 -70 -40 -10 20 50 Avg. SA factor (2021-25) SA factor (2025) Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. Canada LFS Jobs Scenarios for August m/m in 000s, SA SA factors m/m in 000s, NSA

2 Global Economics September 4, 2026 DAILY POINTS There are other drivers and considerations that were flagged in my weekly ’ s preview ( here ), but one other thing to monitor is hours worked that have been on a tear of late. Based on the Q2 hand - off and July, hours have been tracking a gain of nearly 4% q/q SAAR. August ’ s reading could driver a revision to this estimate in either direction, but it ’ s important because GDP is hours times labour productivity and hence the figures are signalling momentum in the economy. NONFARM PAYROLLS—WARSH ALREADY SAID TO IGNORE IT It might take a lot for nonfarm payrolls to matter to Federal Reserve Chair Warsh. That ’ s because he has basically indicated everything is peachy with the US labour market. In regular writings I ’ ve tended to disagree with that and feel he ’ s imposing an unhealthy filter over the data and should be more balanced in how he reads development across both sides of the dual mandate. Estimates for the change in payrolls run from roughly zero (one negative outlier) to +125k. Scotia ’ s estimate is +30k (ranked 3 rd of 76 forecasters). Most estimates are within around 20k to 100k. The 90% confidence band of +/ - 122k. My weekly offered a full preview ( here ) along with an explanation of why I think Chair Warsh ’ s indifference to the state of the job market is misleading. There is a wide range of possible outcomes this time. Chart 3 shows a range of possibilities if we apply last August ’ s SA factor to the range of seasonally unadjusted changes that are usually gains across like months of August in history. I think the middle scenarios around small losses and small gains is the most likely outcome within the noisy bands. That shifts the focus to other considerations. Will local government education jobs that fell by about 50k in July post another drop as the expiration of ESSER funding has begun to hit education jobs? More school boards across the US have been reporting further job losses into the start of the new school year. Will health sector hiring continue to dampen somewhat as the lagging effects of ACA subsidy reductions work through? Will the leisure/hospitality sectors lose jobs again in light of readings like plunging air travel. Other considerations were raised in my weekly preview but what I would mostly default to is a bottom - up deconstruction of the estimate by sector. -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 -125 -50 25 100 175 250 325 400 475 2025 SA factor Avg 2025-2022 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BLS. US Nonfarm Payroll Scenarios for August m/m in 000s, SA SA factors m/m in 000s, NSA Chart 3

3 Global Economics September 4, 2026 DAILY POINTS Fixed Income Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk Last 1-day 1-wk U.S. 4.35 4.34 4.35 4.52 4.52 4.48 4.77 4.77 4.72 5.25 5.25 5.21 Canada - BoC 2.25 CANADA 3.13 3.11 3.00 3.43 3.42 3.33 3.80 3.79 3.72 4.18 4.17 4.13 GERMANY 2.97 2.96 2.91 3.09 3.08 3.02 3.35 3.34 3.28 3.83 3.81 3.77 US - Fed 3.75 JAPAN 1.84 1.85 1.71 2.24 2.28 2.19 2.92 2.96 2.93 4.00 4.08 4.12 U.K. 4.54 4.52 4.41 4.65 4.62 4.62 5.15 5.13 5.06 5.80 5.78 5.78 England - BoE 3.75 CANADA -122 -123 -134 -109 -110 -115 -97 -98 -100 -107 -108 -108 Euro zone - ECB 2.40 GERMANY -138 -138 -144 -143 -143 -146 -142 -143 -144 -142 -143 -144 JAPAN -251 -249 -263 -228 -223 -229 -185 -181 -179 -125 -117 -108 Japan - BoJ 1.00 U.K. 19 18 6 13 11 14 38 36 34 55 53 57 Equities Mexico - Banxico 6.50 1 Day 1-mo S&P/TSX 1.5 2.3 Australia - RBA 4.35 Dow 30 1.2 -0.7 S&P 500 1.1 0.1 New Zealand - RBNZ 2.75 Nasdaq 1.4 -0.0 DAX 0.2 -0.5 FTSE -0.0 -0.5 Nikkei 1.3 1.7 Canada - BoC Oct 28, 2026 Hang Seng 1.7 -0.8 CAC -0.2 -4.6 US - Fed Sep 16, 2026 Commodities WTI Crude -0.9 19.4 England - BoE Sep 17, 2026 Natural Gas 0.6 9.2 Gold -0.1 9.6 Euro zone - ECB Sep 10, 2026 Silver -0.2 12.2 CRB Index -0.0 11.6 Japan - BoJ Sep 18, 2026 Currencies USDCAD 0.1 -1.8 Mexico - Banxico Sep 24, 2026 EURUSD -0.0 0.8 USDJPY 0.3 -0.9 Australia - RBA Sep 29, 2026 AUDUSD 0.0 2.2 GBPUSD 0.1 0.6 New Zealand - RBNZ Oct 27, 2026 USDCHF 0.2 0.0 Current Rate Central Banks Next Meeting Date 0.0 10.5 -0.7 0.3 -2.4 0.5 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2 5.3 0.8 0.4 38.7 0.0017 1.3806 1.1622 156.32 0.7201 1.3536 0.8092 0.0012 -0.0004 0.5100 0.0000 0.0011 Level Level 2.93 -0.14 0.02 416.70 90.49 4468.35 66.84 -0.81 -4.57 -0.14 2.8 -4.7 1.5 8.5 0.3 0.7 42.5 26.0 64.3 % change: 1-yr 26.7 17.7 19.2 22.5 9.7 17.5 52.7 % change: 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.9 0.3 0.3 -5.0 806.5 437.6 -14.9 % change: 2.4 7.4 1-wk -0.5 Level -2.1 -1.5 10827 65021 25651 8271 63.7 Last 36633 53686 7748 26584 26067 Change 541.5 624.2 81.1 366.2 Spreads vs. U.S. (bps): Government Yield Curves (%): 2-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR 30-YEAR

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关键论点

加拿大就业增长势头预计将持续，丰业银行预测8月新增2万就业，失业率降至6.3%。
美国非农就业预计约为+3万（丰业银行估计），由于季节性因素和行业特定风险，结果范围可能很广。
美联储主席沃什对劳动力市场疲软的漠视被视为误导，因为潜在趋势和行业压力仍然存在。
德国工厂订单连续三个月增长，表明工业势头正在改善。
加拿大工作时间追踪强劲增长，支持GDP增长预测。

风险

美国非农就业可能因季节性调整因素和行业下滑而远弱于预期。
如果季节性调整偏差逆转，加拿大就业增长可能令人失望。
贸易政策紧张可能抑制企业招聘和投资。
美联储政策风险：如果沃什继续忽视劳动力市场走软，政策可能过紧，增加衰退风险。