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三井住友银行 · 2026/09/04

美国利率策略周报

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美国利率策略周报 9月4,日 2026日 Joseph Abate,美国利率策略 Monty Gandhi,美国利率策略 Troy Ludtka,美国经济 joseph.abate@smbcnikko-si.com mgandhi@smbc-cm.com troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212 893-1592 1 212 224-5114 1 212-224-5483 • 本周十年期国债收益率触及4.80%,为5月2025,以来的最高水平,但自10月中旬以来,-2025年期期限溢价仍维持在区间内波动。企业债务发行量大、对美联储反应函数的不确定性以及油价走势,推动期限溢价走向区间上端。• 财政部的回购公告逆转了期限溢价的上升趋势,尽管市场上许多人怀疑财政部是否有能力持续压低利率。同样,沃什主席在杰克逊霍尔的偏鹰派讲话也压低了期限溢价。• 对财政路径不可持续性的担忧尚未将期限溢价推离2025年后的区间。• 我们认为,4.80%至5.00%可能是10年期国债收益率的近期多月高点。有一些迹象表明,当收益率处于吸引人的水平时,全球债券需求可能会出现。• 自3月以来,债券已连续六个月下跌。自1970,年以来,仅出现过三次类似情况,其中只有两次延续到第七个月。我们认为,这表明持仓面临有利的风险回报,有望押注收益率下行。• 我们预计总体CPI环比上涨0.3%%(同比3.3%%),核心CPI环比上涨0.2%%(同比2.4%%)。8月份,汽油价格环比上涨3.2%%,而二手车价格环比下降-1.2%%。住房仍是通缩压力的关键来源。尽管通胀正朝着美联储的目标取得进展,但我们认为8月份的数据不会阻止FOMC在本月加息。收益率接近高位,期限溢价区间波动尽管10年期收益率触及新高并重新回到5月2025,的水平,但期限溢价并未明显追随这一走势。美联储ACM模型估计10年期期限溢价目前约为70bp(图1)。这处于自5月2025以来50-90bp的交易区间内。多种因素近期将溢价推向区间上端。企业债务发行量大,挤占了国债发行。同样,对美联储反应函数的不确定性,叠加油价不确定性,可能加剧了这一上行压力。但在财政部宣布回购后,溢价的上升趋势得以逆转。尽管沃什主席在杰克逊霍尔露面时未提供任何前瞻指引,但其偏鹰派的语气似乎缓解了市场对美联储在抗击通胀方面失去部分信誉的担忧,从而压低了期限溢价。此后,市场对财政部通过回购压低长期利率的能力更加怀疑。尽管财政部长提醒市场他可动用的工具很多,但自8月中旬宣布回购以来,他并未采取进一步行动。

SMBC美国利率策略周报 2 期限溢价的这种来回波动主要反映了技术性因素——而非财政路径不可持续性这一更大的问题。市场对赤字前景的担忧似乎并不比今年早些时候更多。事实上,今夏互换利差走阔,而非像市场若对赤字支出愈发担忧时那样收窄。这与2024末至2025初形成对比,当时财政风险重估推动10年期期限溢价上升了90bp个基点。由于回购具有独特性,我们预计跨市场情形将截然不同(图2)。在德国和法国,期限溢价自2025,以来也一直处于区间波动,且和美国一样,处于区间上端。今夏,法国期限溢价因政治不确定性和能源价格上涨而上行。相比之下,日本期限溢价自-2025年中以来已上升100 bp个基点。

长久期——风险回报正在转变

我们认为,4.80%至5.00%可能是10年期美债收益率的近期多月峰值。我们认为,直接的收益率水平正变得越来越有吸引力。全球方面,有报道称,全球最大机构投资者之一GPIF可能加大日本国债购买力度,收益率接近3%的水平对许多投资者颇具吸引力。无论实际买盘何时出现,高收益率水平本身就可能鼓励空头头寸的投资者开始回补。同样,10年期德国国债收益率近期触及3.40%,我们认为在该水平会出现需求。未来一两周内,公司债供应也应大致被消化。从历史经验看,与发行相关的压力往往在9月的第一周被吸收,而今年因劳动节的时间安排,调整可能会稍晚一些。受地缘政治推动的油价上涨仍是关键风险。与此同时,有吸引力的直接收益率、全球收益率上升可能接近尾声的迹象,以及针对长久期的美国国债回购增加,都应提供支撑。收益率已连续六个月上升。自1970,以来,仅出现过三次这样的连涨,且只有两次延续到第七个月。历史表明,在如此长时间的上涨之后,风险回报越来越有利于押注收益率下行。

图1:美国10年期期限溢价(%)

图4:全球10年期期限溢价(%)

资料来源:彭博,SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:美联储,SMBC日兴证券

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1月-25 4月-25 7月-25 10月-25 1月-26 4月-26 7月-26 美国 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 1月-25 4月-25 7月-25 10月-25 1月-26 4月-26 7月-26 法国 德国 日本

SMBC美国利率策略周报 3 下周关注 • 生产者价格报告(8月,周四):我们预测总体PPI环比上涨0.4%,核心PPI环比上涨0.3%。此前7月数据疲软,环比上涨-0.02%。我们预计在原油环比上涨4.1%之后,8月生产者价格将加速上涨。工业金属价格当月亦有所上涨(环比上涨3.7%)。自2024年底以来,PPI医疗保健成本已放缓(图3)。 • 消费者价格报告(8月,周五):我们预测总体CPI环比上涨0.3%(同比上涨3.3%),核心CPI环比上涨0.2%(同比上涨2.4%)。8月,汽油价格环比上涨3.2%,而二手车价格环比下降-1.2%。住房仍是通缩压力的关键来源(图4)。我们预计CPI住房分项环比上涨0.2%。我们预计核心CPI同比将在2027放缓至2.1%。图3:PPI医疗保健价格(同比%)图4:凯斯-席勒房价指数(同比%) vs. CPI住房分项(同比%)资料来源:BLS,Haver,SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:BLS,标普,Haver,SMBC日兴证券 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 凯斯-席勒全美房价指数(16个月领先) CPI:住房分项(同比%,右轴) 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

SMBC美国利率策略周报 4 表3:经济指标预测

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关键论点
  • 本周10年期美债收益率触及4.80%,创2025年5月以来新高,但期限溢价仍呈区间波动。
  • 企业债券发行量庞大、美联储政策不确定性及油价推升期限溢价至区间上沿。
  • 财政部回购公告和沃什主席的鹰派讲话逆转了期限溢价的上行趋势。
  • 财政可持续性担忧尚未将期限溢价推至2025年后的区间之外。
  • 自3月以来债券已连续六个月下跌,历史表明收益率下行的风险回报有利。
  • 预计8月CPI环比上升0.3%(同比3.3%),核心CPI环比上升0.2%(同比2.4%),受汽油和住房动态驱动。
风险
  • 地缘政治驱动的油价上涨仍是收益率前景的关键风险。
  • 财政可持续性担忧可能重现,推高期限溢价。
  • 如果8月CPI高于预期,美联储可能需要更激进加息。
  • 随着市场怀疑增加,财政部回购可能无法持续压低利率。
  • 月度收益率上涨的连胜可能超过历史情形,导致进一步抛售。