加拿大丰业银行经济研究 · 2026/09/04

加拿大就业减少，工时增加，GDP跟踪数据强劲

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加拿大就业减少，工时增加，GDP跟踪数据强劲

加拿大8月份意外减少42千个就业岗位……
……而失业率因劳动力规模缩小而保持稳定
工时激增表明雇主招聘趋于谨慎，延长现有员工工作时间……
……并暗示第三季度GDP增长非常强劲，闲置产能更早关闭
加拿大就业环比变动000千人 / 失业率%，季调后，8月：
实际值：-41.7 / 6.4
丰业银行预测：20 / 6.3
市场共识：15 / 6.4
前值：75.1 / 6.4

加拿大8月份就业减少，但工时增加。约42千个岗位流失，细节疲软（图1），但工时表现强劲（图2,、3）。这可能反映出雇主有意识地选择更克制地增加更多员工，而倾向于延长现有员工的工作时间。这对GDP和加拿大央行的含义是好坏参半，但更偏鹰派而非鸽派；他们不会对8月就业数据过度反应，但GDP跟踪数据可能敲响警钟。

工时环比（季调）连续上升0.6%%。按此趋势，第三季度环比年化增幅约为5%%，为4年第二季度以来最大增幅。

由于GDP等于工时乘以劳动生产率，5%%的工时增长为跟踪GDP提供了一个非常强劲的起点。要形成对生产率的初步判断，我们需要整个季度内更多的经济活动数据，但除非生产率表现近乎灾难性，否则难以抵消如此强劲的工时增长。

如图4所示，制造业增加了22千个岗位。加上信息、文化与娱乐业（+12千）以及医疗保健和社会服务业（6千），这些是上月仅有的就业增长来源。其余行业表现疲弱，大多数行业出现岗位流失，其中商业支持服务业（减少-20千）和零售/批发业（减少-11千）跌幅居前。

未经季调的数据为历年8月份的第二差纪录（图5）。部分原因是季节性调整因子随时间推移在历年8月份呈上升趋势（图6）。若非季调因子较高，岗位流失幅度会更严重。

失业率维持在6.4%%不变，尽管就业数据令人失望，因为劳动力规模上月缩减37千，与预期基本一致。劳动参与率保持稳定（图7,、8）。

工资增长放缓。8月份环比年化率为–6.9%%，此前一个月为–2.3%%。这些数据波动性极大（图9），但工资同比增速已回落至仅2%%，考虑到CPI涨幅高于工资涨幅，这意味着近期实际工资在下降。

由于支出在很大程度上由薪酬驱动，而薪酬是工资乘以工时，在总量上，8月份这些影响相互抵消，但显示出前期强劲的收入就业增长。8月份工资乘以工时环比持平（环比年化–-0.1%%），但7月份增长4.8%%，6月份增长10.6%%。

图10显示岗位流失集中在安大略省和魁北克省。

本报告由丰业银行经济部编制，供丰业银行客户使用。本报告中的观点、估计和预测均为我们截至报告日期的判断，如有变更，恕不另行通知。本报告中的信息和观点来自我们认为可靠的来源，但我们不对其准确性或完整性作出任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证。丰业银行及其任何高管、董事、合伙人、员工或关联机构均不对因使用本报告或其内容而产生的任何直接或间接损失承担任何责任。

完整英文原文

Canada unexpectedly lost 42k jobs in August…
...while the unemployment rate held steady as the labour force shrank
Surging hours worked indicate cautious hiring, working employees longer…
...and suggests very strong Q3 GDP growth, earlier closure of spare capacity
Canadian jobs m/m 000s / UR %, SA, August:
Actual: -41.7 / 6.4
Scotia: 20 / 6.3
Consensus: 15 / 6.4
Prior: 75.1 / 6.4

Canada lost jobs but worked longer hours in August. About 42k jobs were lost with soft details (chart 1), but hours worked are on a tear (charts 2, 3). This could reflect a conscious choice by employers to be a little more restrained in adding a greater number of workers in favour of giving them more hours. The implications for GDP and the Bank of Canada are mixed but more hawkish than dovish; they won’t overreact to August jobs but GDP tracking may ring alarms.

Hours worked were up by 0.6% m/m SA in back-to-back fashion. They are tracking a Q3 gain of about 5% q/q SAAR. That’s the biggest gain since 2021Q4.

Since GDP is hours worked times labour productivity, a still tentative 5% jump in hours is a very strong starting point for tracking GDP. We need a lot more activity readings over the quarter in order to form a rough opinion on productivity, but it would have to be nearly disastrous to offset such strength in hours.

As chart 4 shows, manufacturing added 22k jobs. Along with info/culture/rec (+12k) and healthcare and social services (6k), these were the only sources of job gains last month. The rest of the picture was weak as most other sectors posted job losses led by business support services (-20k) and retail/wholesale (-11k).

The seasonally unadjusted number was the second worst on record for like months of August (chart 5). That was partially reined in by the fact that the seasonal adjustment factor continues to drift higher for like months of August over time (chart 6). The lost jobs would have been bigger if not for a higher SA factor.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% despite disappointing jobs because the labour force shrank by 37k last month which was about as expected. The participation rate has been holding steady (charts 7, 8).

Wage growth has ebbed. August came in at –6.9% m/m SAAR after –2.3% the prior month. The figures are exceptionally volatile (chart 9) but the year-over-year growth in wages has fallen back to just 2% which points to recently falling real wages given CPI is running hotter than wages.

Since spending is significantly driven by pay and pay is wages times hours worked in aggregate the effects cancel out for August but indicated strong prior income employment growth. Wages times hours were flat in August (-0.1% m/m SAAR), but up 4.8% in July and 10.6% in July.

Chart 10 shows lost jobs were in Ontario and Quebec.

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关键论点

8月就业减少4.2万，远低于预期，但工时环比上升0.6%，表明雇主更倾向于延长工时而非增加招聘。
工时预计第三季度按年化季率增长约5%，为2021年第四季度以来最强，除非生产率大幅下滑，否则这暗示GDP增长非常强劲。
由于劳动力规模缩减3.7万，失业率维持在6.4%，劳动参与率保持稳定。
就业增长集中在制造业（+2.2万）、信息/文化/娱乐（+1.2万）以及医疗和社会援助（+0.6万），而商业支持服务（-2万）和零售/批发（-1.1万）领跌。
工资增长放缓，同比增速仅为2%，表明在CPI涨幅更高的情况下，实际工资可能正在下降。

风险

生产率可能出现近乎灾难性的下滑，抵消工时的强劲表现并削弱GDP增长。
8月就业报告波动较大，如果劳动参与率上升，失业率可能走高。
工资增长可能继续放缓，进一步压制消费支出。