预计欧洲央行下周将提高其关键利率。
欧洲央行下周将加息，这是第二次加息，将存款利率提高25 basis points个基点至2.50%。就连欧洲央行管委会中偏鸽派的代表也表达了类似观点。据斯洛文尼亚央行行长普里莫日·多伦茨称，目前加息的理由很充分，尤其是考虑到“通胀形势并未自行化解”。芬兰央行行长奥利·雷恩认为市场预期“可以理解”。鉴于欧洲央行管委会发出的这些明确信号，期货市场已完全消化了此次加息，彭博社调查的经济学家也几乎都预期会加息。
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完整中文译文
欧洲央行将加息多少？
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- 欧洲央行将加息多少？（pdf，795 KB）
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完整英文原文
The ECB is expected to raise its key interest rates next week.
The ECB will raise interest rates next week, ...
The ECB is expected to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time next week, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50 percent. Even representatives of the dovish camp on the ECB Governing Council have expressed views along these lines. According to Primož Dolenc, governor of the Slovenian central bank, the case for a rate hike is currently strong, especially since the “inflation situation is not resolving itself.” Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank, considers market expectations to be “understandable.” In light of these clear signals from the ECB Governing Council, the futures markets have fully priced in this rate hike, and nearly all economists surveyed by Bloomberg also expect a rate hike.
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- How far will the ECB raise rates? (pdf, 795 KB)
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关键论点
- 预计欧洲央行下周将关键利率上调25个基点，使存款利率达到2.50%。
- 管理委员会中偏鸽派成员如Primož Dolenc和Olli Rehn也支持加息，认为通胀形势尚未自行解决。
- 期货市场已完全消化此次加息，大多数接受彭博调查的经济学家也预期加息。
风险
- 如果通胀未如预期回落，欧洲央行可能需要进一步加息。
- 鹰派转变可能减缓欧元区经济增长。