美国8月新增就业岗位162,000个，超出市场所有预期，同时前两个月数据合计上修55,000个。鉴于美联储主席凯文·沃什表示美国已处于充分就业状态，这一结果提升了市场对9月加息的预期，但最终决定将取决于下周五的通胀数据。
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完整中文译文
美国就业报告全面超预期，为九月加息增添理由
就业增长稳固，失业率保持低位
今日发布的美国8月就业报告表现强劲，使得美联储9月加息的可能性有所上升。非农就业人数增加162千人，且前两个月数据上修合计55千人。市场原本预期仅增加55千人。失业率维持在4.1%%不变，尽管劳动参与率有所改善。薪资增长温和，同比上升3.1%%。
细节显示，私营部门贡献了127千个新增岗位，占总数162千个的大部分；休闲和酒店业在连续两个月下滑后反弹，增加62千个；私人教育和医疗保健新增29千个。建筑业增加22千个，制造业增加16千个。尽管联邦和州政府就业小幅下降，但政府部门就业依然稳固，地方政府教育岗位增加42千个，成为主要推动力。鉴于媒体报道学生入学率下降及该行业可能裁员，这一结果令人意外。
就业增长仍集中在三个行业：私人教育和医疗保健服务、政府部门以及休闲和酒店业。这一集中趋势凸显了其他所有经济部门自2022年底以来累计就业岗位减少的事实。考虑到同期GDP增长的强劲表现，这一情况引人注目，暗示着生产率的大幅提升，并印证了美国企业盈利能力强劲的观点。
劳动参与率仍令人担忧地低迷
用于计算失业率的家庭调查显示，就业人数增加569千人，失业人数增加115千人，而民用劳动力增加683千人。这在一定程度上修正了人们退出劳动力市场的惊人趋势。十个月前，劳动参与率曾高达62.6%%，7月降至61.4%%，但现已回升至61.6%%。
通胀数据疲软仍可能诱使美联储按兵不动
不出所料，市场已将25bp个基点的加息概率定价为16bp%，高于昨日州长沃勒发表相对鸽派言论后的12.5bp%，他表示通胀数据疲软可能使其投票支持维持政策不变。下周五的CPI报告将成为关键决定因素。我们和市场普遍预期总体物价环比上涨0.4%%，核心（不含食品和能源）物价环比上涨0.2%%，这可能不足以阻止沃什推动FOMC其他成员加息。
完整英文原文
The US added 162,000 jobs in August, above all expectations in the market, with an additional 55,000 of upward revisions to the past two months. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh describing the US at full employment, this outcome has nudged expectations of a September rate hike higher, but the final decision hangs on next Friday's inflation print
Solid job gains, unemployment stays low
Today has seen the release of a strong US August jobs report that makes a September Fed interest rate hike look a little more likely. NFPs rose 162k with 55k of upward revisions to the past two months. Expectations were for just a 55k rise in total. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1% despite an improvement in the participation rate. Wage growth is benign, rising 3.1% year-on-year.
The details show the private sector contributing 127k of the 162k total new jobs, with leisure and hospitality rebounding 62k after two consecutive down months and private education & healthcare adding 29k. Construction added 22k and manufacturing added 16k. Government was also firm despite small drops in federal and state government employment. Instead, it was local government education, which rose 42k that led the charge. That is a surprise given media coverage of falling pupil enrolment and supposed lay-offs in the sector.
Jobs growth continues to be dominated by just three sectors – private education and healthcare services, government and leisure and hospitality. This concentrated story is underscored by the fact that cumulatively, all other sectors of the economy have lost jobs since the end of 2022. That is a remarkable situation given the strength of GDP growth seen over that period and implies big productivity gains and reinforces the message about robust corporate profitability in the United States.
Labour force participation remains worryingly weak
In terms of the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, it showed a 569k increase in employment and a 115k increase in unemployment facilitated by a 683k increase in the civilian labour force. This is a partial correction to a startling trend of people leaving the workforce. Ten months ago, the participation rate was up at 62.6%, falling to 61.4% in July, but now back to 61.6%.
A soft inflation print could still tempt the Fed to hold steady
Unsurprisingly, the market has moved to price 16bp of a 25bp rate hike, up from 12.5bp yesterday after Fed Governor Waller's relatively dovish comments whereby he suggested a soft inflation print could mean he votes for stable policy. Next Friday's CPI report will indeed be the key decider and the 0.4% month-on-month increase in headline prices and a 0.2% increase in core (ex food and energy) prices, which is what both we and the consensus predict, is probably not cool enough to prevent Warsh nudging the rest of the FOMC into a hike.
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关键论点
- 8月就业报告强劲，新增非农就业16.2万，上修5.5万，超出预期。
- 尽管劳动参与率上升，失业率维持在4.1%，薪资同比增长3.1%，依然温和。
- 就业增长集中在三个行业，暗示生产率提高和企业盈利强劲。
- 市场目前定价加息25个基点的概率为16个基点（上日为12.5个基点），下周五的CPI是关键。
- 若CPI环比上涨0.4%（核心0.2%），可能不足以阻止加息。
风险
- 若CPI数据弱于预期，可能导致9月暂停加息。
- 就业增长集中于少数行业，可能不可持续。
- 劳动参与率仍低于先前水平，表明劳动力市场存在闲置。