沃什的鹰派转向:对投资者可能意味着什么
沃什的鹰派转向:对投资者可能意味着什么
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- 莉兹·安·桑德斯在X和领英上。
- 科林·马丁在X和领英上。
美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中采取了比投资者预期更加鹰派的基调,增加了再次加息的可能性,因为美联储仍关注持续的通胀。科林·马丁和莉兹·安·桑德斯讨论了这对市场意味着什么,为什么加息的步伐和目的比任何特定的利率水平更重要,以及投资者可能如何进入一个通胀波动性更高、股债关系转变以及市场对经济数据敏感度增加的新时代。最后,他们展望了未来一周可能对投资者最重要的指标和数据。
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本材料仅供一般信息和教育用途。这不应当被视为个性化建议或个性化投资建议。所提及的证券、投资产品和投资策略并非适合所有人。每位投资者在做出任何投资决策之前,都需要根据自身的具体情况审视投资策略。
所有观点表达如有变更,恕不另行通知,以应对市场、经济或政治状况的变化。本文所包含的来自第三方提供方的数据,是从被认为是可靠的来源获得的。然而,其准确性、完整性或可靠性无法得到保证。
过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。
投资涉及风险,包括本金损失。
分散投资和资产配置策略并不能确保盈利,也不能在市场下跌时防止损失。
业绩可能受到非分散化投资相关风险的影响,包括投资于特定国家或行业。其他风险还可能包括但不限于:投资于外国证券、尤其是新兴市场、房地产投资信托基金、固定收益、市政债券(包括特定州市政债券)、小市值证券和大宗商品。每位投资者在投资某一特定证券或策略之前,都应仔细考虑这些风险。
在利率上升期间,固定收益证券可能面临更大的本金损失风险。固定收益投资还面临各种其他风险,包括信用质量变化、市场估值、流动性、提前偿还、提前赎回、公司事件、税务影响以及其他因素。
所有名称和市场数据仅作说明之用,并非推荐、出售要约或买入任何证券的要约邀请。
本文中的预测仅为说明之用,可能基于专有研究,并通过分析历史公开数据得出。
嘉信理财提供的政策分析并不构成也不应当被解释为对任何政党的背书。
指数未经管理,不承担管理费、成本和开支,也无法直接进行投资。有关指数的更多信息,请参见 Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions。
超大规模云服务商是指大规模云服务提供商,通过互联服务器和软件的分布式基础设施,提供庞大的计算、存储和网络资源。
负相关是指投资往往呈反向变动:一种上涨,另一种下跌。
完整英文原文
Warsh's Hawkish Turn: What It May Mean for Investors
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech struck a more hawkish tone than investors expected, increasing the likelihood of another rate hike as the Fed remains focused on persistent inflation. Collin Martin and Liz Ann Sonders discuss what that means for markets, why the speed and purpose of rate hikes matter more than any specific interest-rate level, and how investors may be entering a new era of higher inflation volatility, shifting stock-bond relationships, and increased market sensitivity to economic data. Finally, they look ahead to the indicators and data that could matter most to investors in the coming week.
On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.
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This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
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Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.
Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.
All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
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The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.
Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions
A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software.
Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.
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关键论点
- 沃什的鹰派语气增加了再次加息的可能性。
- 加息的速度和目的比利率水平更重要。
- 投资者可能正进入通胀波动加剧、股债关系转变以及市场对经济数据更加敏感的新时代。
风险
- 通胀波动加剧可能导致意外市场波动。
- 股债关系的变化可能降低传统多元化策略的有效性。
- 市场对经济数据更加敏感可能增加数据发布前后的波动。