尽管菲律宾整体CPI略有放缓，但持续的核心通胀以及厄尔尼诺现象带来的食品价格上涨风险表明，物价将在更长时间内保持在目标水平之上。这支持了我们关于第四季度再加息一次的预测。
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完整研报正文
完整中文译文
菲律宾通胀压力持续存在，尽管整体CPI放缓
尽管整体CPI温和回落，但通胀依然顽固
8月整体CPI通胀同比回落至6.1%，略低于7月的6.2%，符合预期。食品和饮料通胀同比放缓至4.6%，反映出非大米食品项目的价格压力有所缓和。然而，大米价格继续加速上涨，同比涨幅从17.0%升至19.4%，凸显持续的供给侧压力。潜在通胀基本保持不变，核心价格同比仍高于4%，服务成本对整体通胀的贡献稳定在1.1个百分点。燃料价格走势不一，运输成本加速上升，而电价则有所下降。
厄尔尼诺现象、大米价格和工资压力使上行风险居高不下
展望未来，通胀风险仍偏向上行。尽管国内大米库存相对充足，但全球和本地大米价格通胀均持续加速。与此同时，厄尔尼诺现象现已牢固确立。世界气象组织预计天气干扰将加强并持续到至少2027年2月。食品价格压力重新抬头的风险正在上升，尤其是大米和其他对天气敏感的作物。这可能会减缓通胀回落进程。政府还表示，菲律宾可能需进口多达五百万吨大米，以确保充足的供应，因为风暴、季风降雨以及厄尔尼诺相关的干旱正威胁国内收成。
此外，核心通胀仍顽固地高于同比4%，而油价的新一轮上行压力可能使整体通胀保持高位。我们预计CPI通胀在2026年剩余时间内将保持在同比5.5%以上。工资进一步传导至服务通胀的风险依然存在。因此，通胀不太可能在2028年之前可持续地回到菲律宾央行的目标区间。
4年第四季度可能再加息一次
我们继续预计25bp年第四季度将再加息4次。在此之前，围绕厄尔尼诺现象的严重性和持续时间、油价上涨、菲律宾比索贬值以及工资传导程度的不确定性不太可能完全消除。再加上持续的核心通胀和高企的通胀预期，这些因素应会使菲律宾央行继续专注于确保通胀以可持续的方式回归目标。
完整英文原文
While Philippine headline CPI eased marginally, persistent core inflation and rising food-price risks from El Niño suggest prices will stay above target for longer. This supports our call for an additional rate hike in the fourth quarter
Inflation remains sticky despite a modest easing in headline CPI
Headline CPI inflation eased marginally to 6.1% YoY in August from 6.2% in July, in line with expectations. Food and beverage inflation moderated to 4.6% YoY, reflecting softer price pressures in non-rice food items. However, rice prices continued to accelerate, rising to 19.4% YoY from 17.0%, highlighting persistent supply-side pressures. Underlying inflation remained largely unchanged, with core prices holding above 4% YoY and services costs contributing a steady 1.1 percentage points to headline inflation. Fuel price developments were mixed, as transport costs accelerated while electricity prices declined.
El Niño, rice prices and wage pressures keep upside risks elevated
Looking ahead, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Although domestic rice inventories remain relatively comfortable, both global and local rice price inflation continue to accelerate. Meanwhile, El Niño conditions are now firmly established. The World Meteorological Organisation expects weather disruptions to strengthen and persist until at least February 2027. The risk of renewed food‑price pressure is rising, especially for rice and other weather‑sensitive crops. This could slow the disinflation process. The government has also indicated that the Philippines may need to import as much as five million metric tons of rice to secure adequate supplies as storms, monsoon rains and a developing El Niño-related drought threaten domestic harvests.
Moreover, core inflation remains sticky above 4% YoY, while renewed upward pressure from oil prices could keep headline inflation elevated. We expect CPI inflation to remain above 5.5% YoY for the remainder of 2026. The risk of further wage pass-through into services inflation remains. As a result, inflation is unlikely to return sustainably to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ target range before 2028.
One more rate hike likely in 4Q26
We continue to expect one additional 25bp rate hike in 4Q26. Uncertainty surrounding the severity and duration of El Niño, higher oil prices, depreciating PHP, and the extent of wage pass-through is unlikely to be fully resolved before then. Together with persistent core inflation and elevated inflation expectations, these factors should keep the BSP focused on ensuring that inflation returns to target on a sustained basis.
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AI 分析
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关键论点
- 8月整体CPI同比从6.2%放缓至6.1%，但核心通胀仍高于4%，服务业成本贡献稳定。
- 大米价格同比从17.0%加速至19.4%，表明供给侧压力持续存在。
- 厄尔尼诺现象已经形成，预计至少持续到2027年2月，增加食品价格上涨风险。
- 通胀在2028年之前不太可能持续回到菲律宾央行的目标区间。
- 预计2026年第四季度将再次加息25个基点。
风险
- 厄尔尼诺可能引发的食品价格上涨压力可能减缓通胀回落进程。
- 油价上涨可能使整体通胀保持高位。
- 菲律宾比索贬值可能加剧通胀压力。
- 工资向服务通胀的传导风险依然存在。
- 通胀可能在2028年之前无法持续回到目标水平。