亚洲周度展望：关注中国、台湾、印度、日本和韩国的重要数据

Markets will focus on trade and inflation data from China and Taiwan, India's CPI, Japan's GDP and PPI, and South Korea’s revised GDP

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China releases trade and inflation data. Trade has been very strong year-to-date, and we expect this to continue into August. We’re looking for export growth of 24.1% year-on-year and import growth of 32.4%, bringing the August trade surplus to $107.0bn. We’re also expecting CPI inflation to rebound moderately in August, rising to 0.9% YoY from 0.5% in July, with fuel prices likely to rebound.

Taiwan releases trade and inflation data. We expect prices to moderate slightly but remain above target at 2.3% YoY. Additional upside surprises could dial up pressure on the central bank to hike later this month. Market participants are split on whether the local elections will prohibit a rate hike. But historical cycles suggest this shouldn’t be a major factor. Continued strong export orders suggest solid trade growth continued in August, with exports up 32.7% YoY and imports up 33.5%, for a trade surplus of $21.9bn.

We expect CPI inflation to increase to 4.7% YoY. The pickup will be driven by food price pressures from weak monsoons, visible especially in sugar and rice prices, and the spillover of higher fuel prices into core inflation.

Japan releases revised Q2 GDP and July current account data on Tuesday. Market consensus expects GDP growth to be revised up to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, equivalent to 1.8% annualised, from the previous 0.3% QoQ and 1.1% annualised, respectively. The market expects Japan’s current account to rebound to a surplus of JPY 285bn in July, following a JPY 92.3bn deficit in June. The trade balance is expected to remain in deficit at JPY 268.4bn. Income from Japan’s overseas investments should continue to support the overall current account balance.

Japan will release its August PPI on Friday. The market expects it to accelerate to 7.4% YoY, from 7.2% in July. The pickup would suggest that upstream price pressures remain elevated, potentially sustaining the pass-through of higher input costs to consumer prices.

South Korea will release its revised Q2 GDP data on Tuesday. Market consensus expects growth to remain unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 0.6% QoQ and 3.7% YoY. This would confirm robust second-quarter growth, supported by continued strength in exports, particularly technology and semiconductor shipments.