美联储沃勒相对鸽派的言论抑制了上周以来的看跌趋势。但市场对数据仍然敏感，在强劲的ISM报告之后，美国非农就业数据将受到密切关注。若该数据低于25k，加之下周通胀数据温和，可能会说服美联储在即将召开的会议上按兵不动。
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利率策略：短暂的喘息
美国数据牵动全球利率波动
美联储沃勒的鸽派言论周四推动利率走低。他更倾向于维持利率不变，理由是出现了一些反通胀迹象，但同时也指出未来两周仍有数据待公布，并提到了CPI数据。
随后公布的ISM服务业报告表现强劲，再次推高利率，但并未完全回升至先前水平。新订单和支付价格高于预期，而就业分项表现疲软，这与人工智能预期的影响相符。
利率可能继续受数据扰动，周五的就业数据将是决定下次FOMC会议决策的两个关键数据之一。在沃勒发表评论后，市场对9月加息概率的隐含预期仅短暂明显跌破50%关口，这凸显出在美联储主席于杰克逊霍尔发表评论后，除非8月就业和CPI数据支持暂停，否则加息仍是更可能的选项。我们的经济学家认为，目前可能需要就业数据低于25k，甚至可能净减少，且随后核心CPI月率低于0.2%，才能阻止或推迟加息。
长期利率也跟随短期利率走势，但收益率曲线的陡峭化提醒我们，还有其他因素在起作用，这将在未来使长期利率保持高位。
周五事件与市场观点
市场聚焦非农就业数据，近期美联储官员的评论提高了加息的可能性，同时也使决策更加依赖于会议前的失业和通胀数据。
在周五的美国就业报告中，市场普遍预计在7月下降23k后，非农就业将增加55k。失业率预计将保持在4.1%不变。请注意，周五是美联储在9月16 FOMC会议前沟通静默期前的最后一天。
欧洲央行首席经济学家莱恩将于周五发表讲话，但不太可能涉及政策相关问题，因为欧洲央行已进入自身静默期。其他数据方面，欧元区将公布7月零售销售数据。
完整英文原文
Relatively dovish comments from the Fed's Waller pushed back against the bearish trend from the past week. But markets remain sensitive to data and after a strong ISM report, the US payrolls number will be closely watched. A number below 25k together with a benign inflation reading next week could persuade the Fed to stay on hold at the upcoming meeting
The US takes global rates on a data rollercoaster
Dovish comments by the Fed’s Waller sent rates lower on Thursday. He was more inclined to keep rates on hold, citing some signs of disinflation, but also pointed to the remaining data ahead in the next two weeks with a nod to the CPI release.
A stronger ISM services report then pulled rates higher again, though not all the way back. Higher-than-expected new orders and prices paid, alongside a weaker employment component gel with the anticipated impact of AI.
Rates will likely continue to be jolted around by the data with Friday’s jobs data being one of two key releases that will help define the next FOMC decision. After Waller’s comments, the market’s implied probability for a rate hike at the September meeting only briefly dropped noticeably below the 50% threshold, highlighting that after the Fed Chair’s comments at Jackson Hole, the decision is better framed as a hike unless the August jobs and CPI data justify a pause. Our economist suspects that now, it will likely require a jobs figure below 25k, possibly even net job losses, with then a core CPI reading below 0.2% month-on-month, to prevent or delay a hike.
Long-end yields are also following the lead of the short end, but the steepening of the curve is a reminder that there are other narratives at play that will keep long-end yields elevated going forward.
Friday’s events and market view
All eyes are on the payrolls' data after recent Fed commentary has raised the stakes for a hike while making it also more dependent on the final jobs and inflation data ahead of the meeting.
In Friday's US jobs report, consensus eyes a 55k increase in non-farm payrolls after the 23k decline in July. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.1%. Note that Friday is the final day ahead of the Fed’s communications blackout ahead of the 16 September FOMC meeting.
ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak on Friday, but is unlikely to touch on policy-relevant issues since the European Central Bank is already in its own black-out period. In terms of other releases, the eurozone will publish retail sales data for July.
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关键论点
- 沃勒的鸽派言论暗示倾向维持利率，理由是部分去通胀迹象和未来数据。
- ISM服务业报告强劲，其中新订单和支付价格走高但就业分项疲弱，推高收益率。
- 美联储9月决策取决于数据；市场认为除非非农和CPI证明暂停合理，否则视为加息。
- 若非农低于2.5万（甚至净减少）且核心CPI月率低于0.2%，可能阻止或推迟加息。
- 长端收益率跟随短端，但其他叙事和曲线陡峭化带来上行压力。
风险
- 非农或通胀数据强于预期可能强化9月加息的理由。
- 供应和财政担忧持续对长端收益率施加上行压力，蕴含久期风险。
- 随着FOMC决定临近，数据噪音可能加剧市场波动。
- 若美联储加息，市场重新定价可能剧烈，因为当前概率接近持平。
- 欧洲央行因静默期沟通风险低，但外部冲击仍存。