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法国外贸银行 · Benito BERBER · 2026/09/03

数据依赖的美联储与巴西的胶着选情

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营销传播:本文件为营销展示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;亦不受禁止在投资研究传播前进行交易的任何禁令约束。3九月2026 纵览美洲 撰文:Benito BERBER 电话:+12126983044 benito.berber@natixis.com Christopher HODGE 电话:+1 212 891 1917 christopher.hodge@natixis.com John BRIGGS 电话:+1 212 583 4982 john.briggs@natixis.com Selin AKER 电话:+1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com 在网站上发现更多 数据依赖的美联储与巴西的胶着选情 “夏末将至,转瞬即逝 泳衣晾晒,行将收干 我会如约而至,就在那里 但愿我没有毁了你的整个假期” ——约翰·普莱恩,《夏末》 ► 颇具影响力的美联储理事沃勒表示,他在九月会议上的投票将取决于下周的通胀数据。就短期而言,我们认为明天的就业数据将令人失望。请阅读我们的完整预览:《八月就业预览:原地踏步》。 ► 尽管周一我们在方向上保持中性,但在近期曲线趋平之后,我们更加确信陡峭化交易,尤其是2s10s。 ► 拉美宏观 巴西——胶着! 智利——低增长 + 弱势智利比索 + 顽固的通胀 = 智利央行利率在4.5%维持更长时间。 秘鲁——秘鲁央行将等待加息时点。

纵观美洲 2 美国本周回顾 本周最大的新闻,至少在今天(明日非农数据发布之前)来看,是美联储理事沃勒今天的讲话。沃勒表示,他在9月美联储会议上的投票观点将很大程度上受到下周通胀数据的影响,如果数据表现疲软,他将倾向于维持利率不变。与美联储主席沃什的观点相反,沃勒认为实际上已经取得了去通胀进展,如果这一进展在8月的数据中得以延续,那么当前的政策立场(他称之为“温和限制性”)将是合适的。沃勒的讲话使得市场对9月加息的预期从约 65% 下降至撰写本文时的 52%。他的观点罕见而明确地揭示了政策制定者的反应函数,使得下周的CPI数据更加重要。7月职位空缺数据弱于预期,6月数据也被下修,这有助于确认劳动力市场已经降温的观点。尽管如此,尽管就业增长放缓,劳动力供需似乎仍大致平衡。低劳动力流动(低招聘/低解雇)使得工资增长温和,并未对通胀压力做出贡献,但也远非值得夸耀的就业市场。比JOLTS数据更重要的是明天的就业形势报告,该报告将公布8月非农就业人数和失业率。我们预计报告将再次表现平平,非农就业人数低于市场共识预期,失业率略有上升。目前劳动力市场仍处于平衡状态,失业率一直非常稳定,但我们认为如果劳动参与率回升,可能会显现出一些潜在的疲软。通胀仍是美联储双重使命中更令人担忧的部分,但我们预计劳动力需求将持续疲软,同时工资增长温和,不会增加通胀压力。请阅读我们的完整预览:《8月非农就业预览:原地踏步》。劳动力市场似乎处于平衡…… ……且不是通胀压力的来源 资料来源:Natixis,Haver 资料来源:Natixis,Haver ISM服务业指数从上月的 54.1 升至 55.4,大多数分项继续上涨。今年服务业活动一直具有韧性,但就业分项指数继续低于 50 的荣枯线(高于该值表明扩张)。近年来,PMI作为增长或就业预测指标的可靠性有所下降,但我们仍可将其视为衡量服务业经济动能的大致指标。

美洲纵横 3 ISM制造业指数延续涨势 资料来源:Natixis, Haver ISM制造业指数8月再次处于扩张区间,但未达预期,且较前月下滑。五大分项指数中有四项较前月恶化,部分原因可能是随着对伊朗战争的担忧消退,企业补库存放缓。然而,在经历了从2023到-2025,的连续下滑后,我们认为,得益于人工智能建设热潮、贸易紧张局势缓解(加拿大除外)以及《一项大而美的法案》带来的税收优惠,制造业产出的韧性有望持续。ISM制造业指数延续涨势 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 7月耐用品订单数据符合预期,延续了今年稳健活动的趋势。实际资本品出货量是预测企业设备投资的关键投入指标,7月再次表现稳健,这与我们对第三季度私人投资推动GDP增长的持续乐观情绪一致。

美洲纵横 4 耐用品订单依然稳健…… …但预期指数大幅下滑 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 下周关注要点 下周的焦点,也是美联储关注的核心,将是9月11(周五)公布的CPI数据。我们对通胀轨迹保持谨慎乐观,但承认近期避免加息的责任在于偏鸽派的数据。我们认为,若月度环比涨幅低于0.2%,可能被视为反通胀路径上的额外进展,而高于该水平则可能巩固美联储的偏鹰派立场,并导致本月晚些时候加息。

美洲纵横 5 美国利率周回顾 因出差原因,本期为简版。本周不仅美国国债收益率面临上行压力,全球发达市场债券收益率整体亦承压。持续的战争、油价上涨(欧洲还有天然气价格飙升)、对AI发行量的担忧、政府赤字忧虑……均助推收益率上行。显然,这些并非新因素,但在缺乏顶级经济数据的情况下,加之我们认为财政部阻止收益率上行的努力未果(甚至可能适得其反),市场持续推动自8月底以来的这一趋势。正如我们上周及本周在Natixis美国利率技术图表手册中所提示,从技术面看,已有相当程度的破坏(引用我们图表手册中的原话:“当前并非过度解读图表的时机:5年期收益率正在突破,目标位在4.63%和4.736%”)。确实,除了我们全年对长端的担忧外,近期对市场对美联储定价的担忧促使我们于周一平掉了以长期通胀对冲的5年期多头头寸,实现小幅净盈利+4bp个基点(详见此处)。尽管我们认为市场对美联储的定价(即鲍威尔迷你周期的退出)已达到极限,但鉴于尚无任何因素能稳定市场,即便市场对美联储加息的定价已超过60bp个基点,我们仍对任何多头头寸保持谨慎。当我们考虑建仓时,将倾向于中期或更短久期,依据美联储定价以及(希望是)技术面顺风而非当前的逆风。至于长端,中期来看,我们认为其在反弹中(很可能由美联储定价下调驱动)或下跌中(受我们全年讨论的结构性因素影响)均将表现落后。对我们而言,走向平坦化的路径是熊市陡峭化,即市场定价超过75bp个基点的加息,而目前我们认为这一概率较低。总之,尽管我们自周一起方向性中性,但近期曲线趋平后,我们对陡峭化交易更有信心,尤其是2s10s。此外,图表形态更为有利,曲线在~30bp个基点处获得支撑,是值得依托的良好水平。当然,大幅波动可能要等到8月CPI报告乃至9月FOMC会议结果出炉,但AI建设带来的长期压力(实际利率上升)以及期限溢价的重建(长端收益率走高)应会持续。美国2s10s现金曲线周度 来源:Natixis,彭博

纵观美洲 6 拉丁美洲要点 巴西:势均力敌!总统选举第一轮于10月4举行,第二轮于10月25举行。多数民调显示什么?过去的民调显示,并且现在继续显示,首先,没有候选人能在第一轮中获得足够支持以胜出。其次,且特别相关的是,选举实际上在左倾总统卢拉和右倾的前总统之子弗拉维奥·博索纳罗之间打成平手。使用咨询公司Plano Politico的第二轮民调聚合器,一个月前卢拉领先弗拉维奥3个百分点。截至9月3,,该聚合器显示差距为1.6个百分点,仍有利于卢拉。鉴于大多数民调的误差幅度为3%,我们可以说选举在统计上已陷入平局。此外,我们认为民调收紧不是因为弗拉维奥在竞选中做了不同或明显更好的事情,而是因为涉及卢拉之子卢林哈的腐败指控。第三,无论原因如何,弗拉维奥在正确的时间达到顶峰。智利:低增长 + 疲软的智利比索 + 顽固的CPI = 央行将政策利率维持在4.5%更长时间 我们认为智利央行不仅会在下周的会议上将政策利率维持在4.50%,而且会在未来九个月内保持该水平。下周,我们预计智利央行将重申谨慎观望的立场。经济活动正在放缓。今年有四个月的非矿业IMACEC环比收缩。最新发布的7月数据显示,非矿业IMACEC环比经季节性调整后收缩0.55%,为自8月2025以来的最大收缩。较高的失业率、疲弱的建筑业活动和天气干扰均导致了经济放缓。七月中旬一场严重的冬季风暴袭击了智利,对经济造成冲击。矿业收缩严重,由于风暴导致部分矿山暂时关闭,矿业IMACEC环比经季节性调整后暴跌9.44%。7月通胀率为同比3.5%。未来几个月,由于厄尔尼诺现象的影响,通胀可能会加速至4.0%左右。最近几个月核心CPI略低于3.0%的目标,鉴于经济活动疲弱,核心CPI不太可能显著加速。在正常情况下,我们认为智利央行的倾向将是释放降息信号。然而,随着美联储紧缩周期概率上升,智利央行不太可能开启降息周期,尤其是考虑到政策利率已处于中性区间。智利央行还需警惕厄尔尼诺效应可能对通胀预期造成的污染。总之,我们预计智利央行今年剩余时间极有可能将政策利率维持在4.50%,并可能持续至2027上半年。

横跨美洲 7 2025 1月 3月 4月 6月 7月 9月 10月 12月 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50% 0 0 0 0 -25 0 0 -25 2026 1月 3月 4月 6月 7月 9月 10月 12月 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2027 1月 3月 4月 6月 7月 9月 10月 12月 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 资料来源:智利央行。法国外贸银行。智利:货币政策路径与预测 秘鲁:秘鲁央行将等待再加息 9月,秘鲁央行(BCRP)将政策利率下调2025,个基点至4.25%,该水平远在中性区间之内,此后一直维持不变。这已是连续第十一次会议维持政策利率不变。我们认为,该行将在下周的会议上维持利率不变,并在今年剩余时间内维持不变。6月经济增长放缓,月度GDP指数的三个月年化率收缩0.3%%,此前5月收缩2.1%%。渔业部门受到重创,正规就业收缩。尽管如此,需求依然具有韧性,我们继续预测GDP同比增速在2.5%%至3.0%%之间。8月通胀环比有所缓和,但年内余下时间可能会加速。我们认为,到12月通胀率将处于4.0%%至5.0%%之间,具体取决于厄尔尼诺现象的严重程度和油价走势。然而,超级核心通胀率可能仍将保持在2.0%%的目标附近。秘鲁央行处境艰难。经济活动尚可,大致符合潜在增速。通胀已受到油价上涨带来的严重供给冲击,且因厄尔尼诺现象而即将恶化。通胀预期高企,但主要反映供给冲击。如果通胀预期进一步上升,且美联储开始加息,秘鲁央行应当加息,而且可能不得不加息。然而,秘鲁索尔过于强势,即使央行在购买外汇储备,贸易条件仍接近数十年高位。另一个反对加息的理由是,厄尔尼诺现象也可能损害经济增长。换言之,秘鲁央行该怎么做并不完全清楚。我们将维持偏鹰派的倾向,尤其是如果通胀和通胀预期继续上升,且美联储开始一轮小型加息周期。但就目前而言,我们认为秘鲁央行将在未来几个月将政策利率维持在4.25%%。 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% -25 0 0 0 -25 0 0 0 -25 0 0 0 2026 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2027 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 资料来源:秘鲁央行。法国外贸银行。秘鲁:货币政策路径与预测

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No part of author compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The personal views of authors may differ from one another. Natixis, its subsidiaries and affiliates may have issued or may issue reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. The stocks/companies mentioned might be subject to specific disclaimers. Please click on the following link to consult them: https://www.research.natixis.com/Site/en/disclaimers/3 . France: Natixis is supervised by the European Central bank (ECB). Natixis is authorized in France by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Régulation (ACPR) as a Bank-Investment Services Provider and subject to its supervision. Natixis is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in respect of its investment services activities. This material is not, and is not intended to be, a “research report”, “investment research” or “independent research” as may be defined in applicable laws and regulations worldwide. However, it may constitute “research” as defined in Recital 28 of the Commission Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 and in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook. EU : In compliance with Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), please find relevant information regarding investment recommendations. If this material is an investment recommendation as that term is defined in Article 3(1)(35) of the EU and UK MAR, distribution of this material is subject to the relevant provisions of MAR. Policy for managing conflicts of interest: Summary-Policy-management-of- conflicts-of-interests_ENG_20241212.pdf Information about potential conflicts of interest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation. USA : Natixis, a foreign bank and broker-dealer, makes this report available solely for distribution in the United States to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. securities Exchange Act of 1934. This document shall not be distributed to any other persons in the United States. All major U.S. institutional investors receiving this document shall not distribute the original nor a copy thereof to any other person in the United States. Natixis is a National Futures Association (NFA) member in the United States and has filed its Swap Dealer registration per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulations, and is registered as a Security-Based Swap Dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Please refer to the Natixis website and applicable final legal documentation relating to the relevant product for additional risk disclosures. Investors are exposed to the default risk of the issuer and/or the guarantor as applicable. For any swap products, please also refer to Dodd-Frank Act - Compliance – Natixis https://www.natixis.com/natixis/en/dodd-frank-act-rpaz5_115246.html. Structured securities, options, futures and other derivatives are complex instruments and may involve a high degree of risk. Before entering into any such transactions, please ensure that you have read and understood the Options Clearing Corporation’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) available at: http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp . THIS COMMUNICATION IS NOT A “RESEARCH REPORT” AS DEFINED IN CFTC REGULATIONS 1.71 and 23.605 AND IS TO BE DISTRIBUTED ONLY TO INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS. THIS COMMUNICATION HAS BEEN GENERATED BY ONE OR MORE EMPLOYEES OF NATIXIS AND IS BEING CONVEYED TO YOU EITHER (I) COMMENTARY ON ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, OR MARKET CONDITIONS AND STATISTICAL SUMMARIES OF MULTIPLE COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL DATA, WHICH MAY INCLUDE LISTS OF CURRENT RATINGS, AND ON THE BASIS OF WHICH NO INVESTMENT DECISION SHOULD BE MADE AS THIS MATERIAL IS CONDENSED, NOT COMPREHENSIVE, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE ALL RISK FACTORS OR OTHER MATTERS THAT MAY BE MATERIAL, OR (II) A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION, BUT IS NOT A BINDING OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AS OF THE DATE OF THIS COMMUNICATION AND ARE NOT TO BE RELIED ON AS AUTHORITATIVE, AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF NATIXIS OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES OR SUBSIDIARIES, OR THEIR RESPECTIVE OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, CONTRACTORS, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES, SUCCESSORS AND ASSIGNS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ANY VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN MAY NOT BE OBJECTIVE OR INDEPENDENT OF THE AUTHOR OR OTHER NATIXIS (AND ITS AFFILIATES) SALES AND TRADING DESKS, WHO ARE ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS IN THE MARKETS, INVESTMENTS, OR STRATEGIES REFERRED TO IN THIS COMMUNICATION. THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS COMMUNICATION IS BASED ON PUBLIC INFORMATION AND SHALL NOT BE USED NOR CONSIDERED AS AN UNDERTAKING FROM NATIXIS. NATIXIS TAKES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS OF THE COMMUNICATION. NEITHER THE AUTHORS NOR NATIXIS HAVE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR OTHERWISE NOTIFY THE RECIPIENT IN THE EVENT ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING ANY OPINION OR VIEW, CHANGES OR BECOMES INACCURATE. NATIXIS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY FINANCIAL LOSS, DAMAGES, OR ANY DECISION TAKEN ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION DISCLOSED IN THIS COMMUNICATION AND NATIXIS DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY ADVICE, INCLUDING IN CASE OF INVESTMENT SERVICES. THIS COMMUNICATION IS COMMUNICATED TO EACH RECIPIENT FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document does not constitute a financial analysis or research report and has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Accordingly, there are no prohibitions on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Opinions expressed may differ from the opinions expressed by other business units of Natixis. Natixis and each of its respective affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this material or reliance on the information contained herein. However, this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not lawfully be disclaimed. No representation or assurance is provided by Natixis with respect to whether any product or financial instrument referenced in this document meets requirements or criteria established under any regulatory, industry or other rules and standards related to climate, sustainability or environmental matters. Canada : In Canada, this document may only be transmitted to “permitted clients” as defined in National Instrument 31-103. No further distribution is permitted. Distribution to retail investors is prohibited. In Canada, Natixis operates through Natixis Canada Branch, a Foreign Bank Branch (Schedule 3 – Lending only). Natixis Securities Americas LLC is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province but operates under the International Dealer Exemption in each province. Natixis S.A. is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province and operates under the International Dealer Exemption in Quebec and Ontario. Any securities transaction or other offer, sale, or solicitation will be structured to be in compliance with such exemption. Mexico : As per your request, this information is delivered to you, which strictly pertains to activities performed by Natixis, a Foreign Financial Entity in its country of origin, such institution is herein represented by its Representation Office in Mexico. This information is being delivered to you for information purposes only. Please note that the Representation Office in Mexico is prevented from negotiating, executing, or participating in (i) operations related to listed derivatives; and (ii) securing funds from the general public in Mexico. Brazil: This communication and the matters discussed therein have not been and will not be issued, placed, distributed or offered in the Brazilian market. Documents relating to this communication, as well as information contained therein may not be supplied to the public in Brazil nor be used in connection with any offer for subscription or sale of financial products or services to the public in Brazil. This communication will not be offered in Brazil, except in circumstances which do not constitute any breach or noncompliance with the Brazilian applicable legislation. Persons wishing to acquire or invest in any debt or equity interest in Brazil should consult with their own counsel as to the applicability of registration requirements or any exemption therefrom. This material is only intended for persons who are eligible investors residing in Brazil, which are considered to be Professional Investors (Investidores Profissionais), as designated by the applicable regulation, mainly the CVM Resolution No. 30 from the 11th of May 2021. Argentina : Products/services included in the presentation have not been and will not be publicly issued, placed, distributed, offered, or registered in Argentine Securities Commission (Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV). Neither this nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any general offering to the public within Argentina. Any Argentine resident who acquires any products or services will do so under his/her own responsibility under the terms of a private offering to him/her, from outside of Argentina. Disclaimer A CROSS T HE A MERICAS research.natixis.com Panama : This document and its content are for information purposes and shall not be interpreted as banking or financial intermediation, business solicitation and/or public offering of any kind. Natixis is duly authorized by the relevant authorities to carry out banking activities in the United States. Any and all services provided by Natixis are provided on a cross border basis outside of Panama. Natixis is not authorized by the Superintendence of Banks nor the Superintendence of the Securities Market to carry out any activities in Panama.The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice or credit analysis with respect to the material presented, and the information and/or documents contained in this material do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to offer. Peru : The products or information discussed here have not been registered under the Peruvian Securities Market Law (Supreme Decree N° 093-2002-EF) or before the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV). There will be no public offering of the shares in Peru. The SMV has not reviewed the information provided to the investor. This material is only for the exclusive use of institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution. Colombia : By receiving this document you confirm that you have requested us to provide you this document and information on the matters described in it. You also confirm that your interest in requesting such documents and information arose out of your own private interest and was not the result of any direct or indirect solicitation, promotion or offering of services or products by Natixis or by any of its representatives. Accordingly, the information contained in this document is not intended and should not be construed as constituting onshore promotion, marketing or solicitation of securities-market services or products. The distribution of the information contained in this document is restricted by law and persons who access it are required to comply with all such restrictions. The information is not intended to be published or made available to any person in any jurisdiction where doing so would contravene any applicable laws or regulations. By receiving this document, you confirm that you are aware of the laws in Colombia relating to the promotion and marketing of financial services products and you warrant and represent that you will not pass on or utilise the information contained in this document in a manner that could constitute a breach of such laws by Natixis, its affiliates or any other person. Any securities mentioned in this document have not been and will not be registered with the National Register of Securities ("Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores") maintained by the Colombian Financial Superintendency ("Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia") and may not be publicly offered or sold in Colombia. This information does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to enter into any agreement, or to purchase or subscribe any securities. The information on the following pages is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice or any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any of the funds or securities mentioned. Prospective investors should take appropriate professional advice before making any investment decision. Bolivia : Natixis is not authorized to conduct in Bolivia activities reserved by law for financial intermediation entities and/or brokerage firms. The products/services offered will be provided from Natixis's offices outside of Bolivia. Chile : This communication and any accompanying information (the "Materials") are intended solely for informational purposes and do not constitute (and should not be interpreted to constitute) the selling, or conducting of business with respect to such products or services in Chile (this "Jurisdiction"), or the conducting of any brokerage, banking or other similarly regulated activities in this Jurisdiction. Natixis ("Bank") is not registered (or intended to be registered) in this Jurisdiction. The Materials are private, confidential and are sent by the Bank only for the exclusive use of the addressee. The Materials must not be publicly distributed and any use of the Materials by anyone other than the addressee is not authorized. The addressee is required to comply with all applicable laws in this Jurisdiction, including, without limitation, tax laws and exchange control regulations, if any. The services do not include the offer or intermediation of any securities. Additionally, the Bank will not be liable for investment decisions made by the client based on the information derived or obtain from the Bank's materials. UK : In the UK, Natixis SA is authorised by L'Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Germany : Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland is subject to a limited form of regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) with regards to the conduct of its business in Germany under the right of establishment there. The transfer / distribution of this document in Germany is performed by / under the responsibility of Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland. Spain: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Spain and the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Spain. Italy: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Italy and the CONSOB (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Italy. Japan: Natixis Tokyo Branch is authorized in Japan by the Financial Service Agency as a Bank. Natixis Japan Securities Co., Ltd. (NJS) is a Financial Instruments Business Operator (Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 2527 and a Money Lender (Tokyo Governor (4) No. 31548), supervised by the Financial Services Agency. NJS is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. This document is intended solely for distribution to Professional Investors as defined in Article 2.31 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Hong Kong: In Hong Kong, Natixis is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the “SFC”) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) and Type 6 (advising on Corporate Finance) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (“SFO”). This document has not been approved by the SFC nor has a copy of this document been registered by the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, unless specified otherwise. The investments contained herein may or may not be authorised by the SFC. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the investments contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. The investments may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong, by means of any document, other than (i) to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO, or (ii) in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32 of the Laws of Hong Kong)(the “C(WUMP)O”) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the C(WUMP)O. No person shall issue or possess for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the investments, which to his knowledge is or contains an invitation to the public of Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the applicable laws and rules of Hong Kong) other than with respect to investments which are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong or only to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO. This document is not and should not be construed as Natixis (or any affiliate or anyone else) offering or holding itself out as being willing or able to provide any service or to carry on any activity which it is not licensed to provide or carry on in Hong Kong. Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: Natixis Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. If this document is distributed in Singapore, this document is intended solely for distribution to Institutional Investors, Accredited Investors and Expert Investors as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. People’s Republic of China: In Mainland China, Natixis Shanghai branch and Natixis Beijing branch are regulated in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”, which, for such purposes, does not include the Hong Kong or Macau Specifical Administrative Regions or Taiwan) by National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the engagement of banking business. This document is intended solely for distribution to investors of the PRC who are qualified/authorized under the laws of the People’s Republic of China to engage in the purchase of Product of the type being offered or sold. PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsolicited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Financial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 美联储理事沃勒表示其9月投票将取决于下周的通胀数据;若数据疲软,他将倾向于维持利率不变,这使得市场加息预期从约65%降至52%。
  • Natixis预计8月非农就业将低于市场共识,失业率将小幅上升,反映出劳动力市场的潜在疲软。
  • 最近的曲线平坦化以及技术面背景支持陡化交易,尤其是2s10s,同时该行对整体久期保持中性。
  • 巴西总统选举中,卢拉和弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在统计上不分上下,差距收窄至1.6个百分点。
  • 由于增长低迷、CLP疲软和通胀顽固,预计智利央行将在2026年剩余时间以及可能到2027年上半年维持4.50%的政策利率。
  • 秘鲁央行在未来几个月可能维持4.25%的利率,并保持鹰派倾向,但如果通胀预期加速且美联储开始加息,则可能加息。
风险
  • 8月通胀数据可能高于环比0.2%,这将巩固美联储本月晚些时候的加息。
  • 如果市场定价超过75个基点的美联储加息,曲线可能熊市平坦化,损害陡化交易头寸。
  • 巴西选举可能受到腐败指控或意外事件的影响,导致市场波动。
  • 厄尔尼诺现象和油价可能推高智利和秘鲁的通胀,迫使央行采取行动。