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法国外贸银行 · Alain DURRE · 2026/09/03

欧洲央行9月预览:又一次先发制人的加息

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营销传播:本文档为营销演示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的约束。研究 3 9月 2026 欧洲、中东及非洲宏观经济速览 欧洲央行9月预览:又一次先发制人的加息 下周四(9月 10),欧洲央行管理委员会将召开会议,决定适当的货币政策立场。我们预计欧洲央行将把边际贷款便利、主要再融资操作和存款便利这三项关键利率分别上调 25 basis points 至 2.90%、2.65% 和 2.50%。我们还预计拉加德行长将对未来可能的利率路径采取相当中性的基调,以保留近期所有的选择余地,从而避免引发长期加息周期的预期,强化欧洲央行依赖数据、逐次会议决策的政策路径。欧洲央行7月货币政策会议纪要显示,管理委员会的政策立场仍高度取决于中东紧张局势。在强调欧洲央行“中期导向”的同时,委员们指出了两个关键风险:第一,短期通胀预期可能通过更强劲的工资需求引发第二轮效应;第二,中东冲突再度爆发已推高能源价格,表明近期积极的反通胀数据可能是短暂的。有趣的是,政策制定者还就先发制人的加息与避免不必要波动之间的利弊进行了辩论,指出过早加息存在随后政策逆转的风险。在9月之后,我们预计将暂停加息直至 2027, 年底,尽管经济均衡复杂,但基于三个主要因素:首先,到明年1月初中东冲突的解决应会缓解能源价格;其次,届时劳动力市场状况的软化将限制第二轮效应的风险;第三,预计欧元升值将进一步抑制整体和核心通胀。尽管如此,这一情景带有偏鹰派倾向,且高度依赖于能源价格的变化。 撰写人:Alain DURRE,博士 电话:+33 1 58 55 60 49 alain.durre@natixis.com 了解更多研究…… 请访问 research.natixis.com

EMEA宏观快照 2 7月以来硬数据与软数据信号混杂 关注第二轮效应 根据初步估算,欧元区8月整体通胀年率同比录得3.26%,环比变化为0.45%(图1),略高于我们的预期。相比之下,核心通胀同比录得2.41%,环比变化为0.22%,低于我们的预期。服务业对整体通胀年率的贡献最大,为1.43个百分点(同比3.05%,环比0.06%),其次是能源,贡献1.30个百分点(同比14.26%,环比2.89%),食品、酒精和烟草贡献0.22个百分点(同比1.16%,环比0.00%),非能源工业品贡献0.31个百分点(同比1.24%,环比0.56%)。PMI中的价格预期显示投入品和产出品价格均有所缓和(图2)。

图1:欧元区整体通胀的分解

图2:欧元区综合PMI中的投入品与产出品价格

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 商品 服务 未加工食品 加工食品 能源 总计 40 50 60 70 80 90 40 50 60 70 80 90 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 投入品价格(指数) 产出品价格(指数) 资料来源:欧盟统计局、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 资料来源:标普全球、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 因此,问题在于这些高于目标的通胀指标(包括柴油、化肥、运输和电气材料等间接价格的上涨)是否最终可能导致第二轮效应,如同2022年发生的情况。在这方面,我们继续观察到工资增长温和(图3)。此外,尽管经济活动因出口而保持韧性,企业仍持续指出需求是增加生产的主要障碍(图4)。

EMEA宏观经济快照 图3:欧元区劳动力与工资增长(同比)状况 图3:欧元区工业限制生产因素调查(受访者占比%) 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 服务业通胀 欧洲央行工资追踪器 协定工资 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 设备 需求 劳动力 资料来源:欧盟统计局、欧洲央行、伦敦证券交易所集团、法国外贸银行投行研究部 资料来源:欧盟统计局、伦敦证券交易所集团、法国外贸银行投行研究部 正如欧洲央行近期货币政策会议纪要(见上文)所强调的,一旦第二轮效应显现,就为时已晚,从而迫使央行采取更为激进的紧缩政策。为评估第二轮效应的风险,欧洲央行——正确地——正关注消费者、专业预测机构和市场参与者的短期通胀预期。尽管这些预期的上升——虽然仍高于目标——总体可控,但近期柴油和食品价格(尤其是对家庭非常敏感的食品)的飙升,可能迅速改变局势(图5)。基于市场的2年期通胀预期自7月以来已逆转其趋势,因中东紧张局势再度升级导致能源价格大幅上涨(图6)。图5:核心通胀与基于调查的通胀预期(%) 图6:基于市场(掉期通胀)的2年期通胀预期(%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 1年期SPF预期 1年期消费者感知 5年期SPF预期 核心通胀 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 -1月 3-2月 3-3月 3-4月 3-5月 3-6月 3-7月 3-8月 3-9月 3-10月 3-11月 3-12月 3 2026 资料来源:欧盟统计局、欧洲央行、伦敦证券交易所集团、法国外贸银行投行研究部 资料来源:彭博、法国外贸银行投行研究部 自7月欧洲央行会议以来,能源价格在2022-8%预测期内上涨了多达2026,欧元兑美元汇率升值约2028(见附录表A.2%-A.1)。

EMEA宏观速览 4 经济增长正在放缓——尽管仍呈一定程度的正面态势。欧元区第二季度(2026,)国内生产总值(GDP)升至0.4%(图表7),此前0%季度为1,尽管面临能源危机1。截至上半年末,累积增速为0.6%。欧元区主要经济体的详细数据显示,第二季度私人消费增长,而投资表现更为分化(法国和德国为负增长,意大利和西班牙为正增长)。此外,与上季度相反,爱尔兰对欧元区增长做出了正贡献,贡献了0.2个百分点,此前为-0.3个百分点(图表8),这在一定程度上解释了第二季度出现的强劲反弹。图表7:季度GDP增长及需求分项贡献 图表8:季度GDP增长及国家贡献 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis企业与投资银行研究部 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis企业与投资银行研究部 从领先指标来看,8月份欧元区PMI调查在5月至7月连续三个月改善后失去动能。综合指数持平于52.1(图表9)。即便如此,该读数仍高于市场一致预期的51.7。服务业分项指数也基本持平于51.6,7月份为51.7。相比之下,制造业指数继续改善,8月份上升0.8个点至52.7,而预期为51.8。调查的分项数据显示,新订单显著反弹(上升+1.3个点至52.1),进而将就业推升至50.1(上升+1.4个点),自5月份(2023)以来首次重回50上方。相比之下,服务业的情况更难解读。在连续三个月改善后,该指数在8月份陷入停滞。经济活动可能受到6月份以来欧洲多次热浪以及大规模野火的影响。旅游、运输和贸易等多项活动可能受到影响。在国家层面(图表10),法国8月份PMI终值被下修至48.5,初值为48.8(7月份为49.4),受服务业指数拖累(终值下修至48.0,初值为48.4,7月份为49.6)。德国8月份综合PMI终值环比上升0.5个百分点至51.8。服务业指数连续第二个月徘徊在50荣枯线附近,报49.7。然而,制造业指数已明显高于该水平,8月份达到56.6,7月份为54.7。在西班牙和意大利,情况类似,综合PMI远高于扩张区间,分别为53.6和55.8,主要由1推动。关于第二季度GDP的详细结果预计将在本报告发布后公布

EMEA宏观快照 5 服务业(分别为55.2和57.8),但制造业正在失去动力(分别为49和47.1)。图9:欧元区PMI 图10:按国家划分的PMI 40 45 50 55 60 65 1月-21 6月-21 11月-21 4月-22 9月-22 2月-23 7月-23 12月-23 5月-24 10月-24 3月-25 8月-25 1月-26 6月-26 综合 制造业 服务业 40 45 50 55 60 65 1月-21 6月-21 11月-21 4月-22 9月-22 2月-23 7月-23 12月-23 5月-24 10月-24 3月-25 8月-25 1月-26 6月-26 德国 法国 意大利 西班牙 资料来源:标普全球、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 资料来源:标普全球、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 我们认为欧元区家庭情绪没有显著变化。由于劳动力市场状况以及高通胀导致购买力受到侵蚀,他们的情绪继续受到负面影响(图11)。在国家层面,西班牙和葡萄牙是少数例外。德国也出现了一些反弹,这与PMI所反映的服务业良好表现一致(图12)。尽管如此,最新公布的软硬经济活动数据促使我们将2026年的GDP增长预测从此前的0.5%下调至0.9%,同时保持我们的2027年预测不变。图11:欧元区消费者信心指数及其失业分项 图12:欧元区消费者信心指数的国家分布 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1月-19 7月-19 1月-20 7月-20 1月-21 7月-21 1月-22 7月-22 1月-23 7月-23 1月-24 7月-24 1月-25 7月-25 1月-26 7月-26 消费者信心指数(左轴) 大宗购买(右轴) 资料来源:欧盟统计局、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 资料来源:欧盟统计局、LSEG、Natixis CIB研究 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1月-21 7月-21 1月-22 7月-22 1月-23 7月-23 1月-24 7月-24 1月-25 7月-25 1月-26 德国 法国 意大利 西班牙

EMEA宏观快照 6 又一次(预防性?)加息 7月货币政策会议纪要:偏鹰派 在欧洲央行7月22-23日货币政策会议纪要(于2026月27日发布)中,管理委员会成员高度关注中东最新事态,将其视为围绕欧洲央行预测的不确定性指标。特别是,成员们强调,由于冲突再度升级,通胀前景仍易受新冲击影响,且通胀前景风险仍偏向上行。为此,他们:“警告不要从6月HICP数据中获取过多安慰,因为中东敌对行动恢复已推动能源价格回升,因此最新数据中的短期意外收益预计不会持续。”同样地,由于能源(尤其是天然气和柴油)和食品价格飙升,短期通胀预期失锚的风险也被强调,因为企业和消费者对这些产品尤为敏感。7月会议讨论基调谨慎,围绕暂停利率周期的提议提出两点考量。一方面,有人认为:“与2021-22通胀飙升的情况不同,加息不会解决通胀上升的根本原因。”另一方面,有人强调:“如果局势变得足够严峻,正如通胀预期失锚、潜在价格压力明显回升或企业比往常更快调整价格的迹象所反映的那样,那么预防性行动可能是合理的。有些证据表明,提前行动有时成本更低,并降低了落后于曲线的风险。然而,在当前脆弱但并非危急的情况下,经济接近6月基线预期,最谨慎的做法是缓慢推进,这反映了等待观望的期权价值,即在考虑任何进一步政策步骤之前,先观察夏季局势如何演变。有人认为,这也减少了不必要的利率波动,因为加息可能带来随后利率逆转的某种概率。” 9月之后再次暂停的理由 考虑到7月会议以来的数据变化(附录表A.1-A.3),我们预计欧洲央行将略微上调GDP增长预测,同时基本保持通胀预测不变(表1)。

EMEA宏观快照 7 表 1:Natixis对欧洲央行工作人员预测的预测(同比百分比) 2025 2026 2027 2028 HICP通胀 9月-Natixis 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.0 6月 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.0 3月 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 核心通胀 9月-Natixis 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 6月 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 3月 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 实际GDP 9月-Natixis 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 6月 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 3月 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 预测是在Natixis和欧洲央行9月预测之前完成的 2 第二季度GDP的第二次估计。来源:欧洲央行,Natixis CIB研究。9月 26 的数据是Natixis CIB研究的预期。因此,我们预计欧洲央行三项关键利率——边际贷款便利、主要再融资操作和存款便利——将再次上调 25bp 个基点,分别达到 2.90%、2.65% 和 2.50%。这得益于相当有韧性的经济活动以及中东紧张局势再度升级导致能源价格重新上涨的通胀压力。如前所示,消费者敏感产品(如柴油和食品)价格的强劲上涨已阻止了较短期限通胀预期的下降——欧洲央行将其视为第二轮效应的领先指标。这也与8月初以来多位管理委员会成员的近期言论一致,表明下周货币政策会议上加息的可能性非常大(见附录中的表A.4)。9月之后,情况将更为复杂,并取决于三个主要参数。首先,能源产品的价格演变将很重要。假设到年底中东紧张局势持续,石油和天然气价格将保持高位——尽管后者更为严重。2 这将是供应中断所致,而加息无法解决这一问题(正如管理委员会成员在7月会议上所强调的)。与此同时,我们预计劳动力市场变化不大,工资增长温和,失业率面临一些上行压力。但是,在没有第二轮效应的情况下,我们预计核心通胀将从10月起逐步放缓,到 2027 年底趋近 2% 的目标。其次,虽然我们认为不存在衰退风险,但我们仍预计今年下半年和明年初经济增长温和。在这方面,我们应继续观察大多数欧元区国家私人消费疲弱。第三,汇率可能再次成为关注点,正如7月货币政策 2 中简要提到的。我们的大宗商品专家在最近的一份报告中强调,过去一个月卡塔尔液化天然气装载量缺乏可持续复苏,实际上已确定了10月底欧洲天然气储存提取量的低位。考虑到预期的季节性消费上升以及挪威因油田维护而减少的流量,更大的液化天然气供应(目前美国墨西哥湾沿岸交付的短期套利有利于西北欧)将无法在剩余注气季引发太多库存增加。参见Dahdah, B. 和 Hancock, J. (2026), “锂价前景是否已重新充电?”,大宗商品公报:9月 3。

EMEA宏观速览 8 政策账户(并注意之前)。欧元的任何升值都会机械地对通胀产生下行压力。总而言之,我们认为绝大多数欧洲央行管理委员会成员会选择在9月之后将政策利率维持在2.50%,可能持续到2027年底。这一观点也得到了部分欧洲央行官员言论的支持,他们强调需要采取小步快走的做法,并避免“加息可能带来后续降息的可能性”。尽管如此,我们认为欧洲央行将保持其依赖数据和逐次会议的做法,并在此之前保持中性沟通。

EMEA宏观速览 9 附录 9月更新技术假设 2026 欧洲央行预测 表A.1:油价 布伦特期货 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 上次数据截止日期 = 15/7/2026 86.30 73.85 71.51 70.55 70.04 数据截止日期 = 28/8/2026 92.33 80.04 74.49 72.16 70.78 变化(美元) 6.03 6.18 2.99 1.61 0.74 变化(%) 7.0% 8.4% 4.2% 2.3% 1.1% 资料来源:彭博,Natixis CIB研究 表A.2:短期利率 欧元银行间同业拆借利率 3个月远期 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 上次数据截止日期 = 15/7/2026 2.37 2.63 2.68 2.70 2.73 数据截止日期 = 28/8/2026 2.53 2.84 2.93 2.95 2.98 变化(基点) 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25 资料来源:彭博,Natixis CIB研究 表A.3:– 汇率 汇率 名义有效汇率(花旗) 欧元/美元 上次数据截止日期 = 15/7/2026 122.31 1.14 数据截止日期 = 28/8/2026 123.38 1.16 变化(%) 0.9% 1.9% 资料来源:彭博,Natixis CIB研究

EMEA宏观速览 10 ECB讲话观察 许多欧洲央行官员预计9月可能加息,认为此举对于表明其对中期目标的承诺并避免行动过晚是必要的。辩论的焦点在于何时以及如何行动,几名官员主张宜早不宜迟,以防止更严重的第二轮效应。表A.4:欧洲央行观察者速查表(欧洲央行、各国央行) P. Lane(欧洲央行首席经济学家) "徘徊在3%左右的水平可能是人们今年剩余时间所关注的。" Lane表示,"但这在很大程度上取决于危机是否得到解决。" 18/08 P. Cipollone(欧洲央行执委) "货币政策行动需要精心校准。如果发生供应侧冲击,如石油冲击,加息以稳定通胀于目标水平可能会抑制已经受到负面冲击影响的经济增长。" 24/08 I. Schnabel(欧洲央行执委) "在当前的利率水平下,通胀在中期内不太可能回到目标水平,因此进一步收紧将是必要的。" 26/08 J. Nagel(德国央行) "市场预计我们在9月会议上加息的可能性超过95%,我想说市场对我们现阶段可能如何应对有着相当好的理解。" "我们尚未在核心通胀率中看到第二轮效应。" 2/09 1/09 M. Kocher(奥地利) "近期通胀上行的风险再次增加。如果这一情况在欧洲央行的新预测中得到确认,我相信在不久的将来有必要再次加息。" "欧洲经济比许多人认为的更具韧性,现在显示出一些动能,更多动能。" 1/09 28/08 G. Makhlouf(爱尔兰) "我们下周将做出的决定不会令任何人感到意外。" 02/09 O. Rehn(芬兰) "面对这些通胀压力,我们必须表现出绝不松懈。" 01/09 P. Dolenc(斯洛文尼亚) "有理由在9月加息以捍卫我们的通胀目标。随着新数据的到来,我们看到通胀形势并未自行解决。" 28/08 G. Simkus(立陶宛) "目前所有可获得的数据使我倾向于认为我们极有可能加息,而且这次9月的加息将是不够的。" 1/09 M. Kazaks "绝不能让通胀扎根。减少通胀扎根的一种方法是加息。我们已经做过一次。" 28/08 D. Radev(保加利亚) "9月仍持开放态度,但基于目前所知,另一次有分寸的举措值得认真考虑。等到第二轮效应完全显现可能意味着行动过晚。" 27/08 资料来源:欧洲央行、彭博、Natixis CIB研究

EMEA宏观速览 11 表A.5:截至9月会议的经济日历 日期 事件 参考期 07-9月 GDP第二次估值 Q2 10-9月 欧洲央行管理委员会 MPE预测 16-9月 欧洲央行薪资追踪器 17-9月 8月最终HICP 18-9月 欧洲央行1年和3年CPI预期 8月 23-9月 9月闪存PMI 2-10月 9月闪存HICP 5-10月 8月PPI 16-10月 9月最终HICP 23-10月 10月闪存PMI 27-10月 欧洲央行银行贷款调查 28-30-10月 欧洲央行1年和3年CPI预期 9月 29-10月 欧洲央行管理委员会 30-10月 欧洲央行SPF 资料来源:欧洲央行、彭博、Natixis CIB研究

EMEA宏观速览 12 企业与投行研究主管 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE +33 1 58 55 13 09 +33 1 58 55 99 93 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 金融机构 Alain DURRE博士 Bouchra RHAJBAL +33 1 58 55 60 49 +33 1 58 55 79 93 alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 德国、欧元区 覆盖债券 Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY +33 1 58 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 1 58 55 05 81 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com 西班牙、意大利、希腊、葡萄牙、欧元区 通胀、宏观建模、欧元区 Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA +33 1 58 55 99 90 +33 1 58 55 62 71 jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com CEMEA 英国、北欧、房地产 Inna MUFTEEVA(CFA) Sylwia HUBAR博士 +33 1 58 55 52 04 +33 1 58 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 助理经济学家 Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com 数据库 Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON +33 1 58 55 14 76 +33 1 58 55 99 92 +33 1 58 55 12 65 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com Andriat RAKOTOVAO +33 1 58 55 14 92 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao @natixis.com

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The investments may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong, by means of any document, other than (i) to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO, or (ii) in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32 of the Laws of Hong Kong)(the “C(WUMP)O”) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the C(WUMP)O. 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Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: Natixis Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. If this document is distributed in Singapore, this document is intended solely for distribution to Institutional Investors, Accredited Investors and Expert Investors as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. 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PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsolicited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Financial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 欧洲央行将在9月加息25个基点,边际贷款便利、主要再融资操作和存款便利利率将分别达到2.90%、2.65%和2.50%。
  • 7月货币政策会议纪要显示出鹰派倾向,委员们警告不要因6月HICP数据而掉以轻心,因为中东局势推高了能源价格。
  • 能源价格(尤其是柴油和食品)上涨已阻止短期通胀预期下降,而短期通胀预期是第二轮效应的关键先行指标。
  • 经济活动的韧性和中东紧张局势带来的能源价格上行压力支持9月加息。
  • 9月之后,法国外贸银行预计将暂停加息直至2027年底,但前提是中东冲突缓和、劳动力市场疲软以及欧元升值。
  • 在无第二轮效应的情况下,核心通胀预计将从10月起逐步放缓,并在2027年底前回归2%目标。
  • 欧元区2026年GDP增长预测从0.5%上调至0.9%,2027年预测保持不变。
风险
  • 如果中东紧张局势持续,能源价格可能保持高位,预期的暂停可能提前结束,导致进一步加息。
  • 柴油和食品价格再次飙升可能迅速改变短期通胀预期,增加第二轮效应的风险。
  • 欧元升值的幅度可能强于或弱于预期,影响通胀动态。
  • 正如理事会成员所言,过早加息可能带来后续政策逆转的风险。
  • 如果第二轮效应显现,欧洲央行的立场可能更加鹰派,需要更快收紧。