与市场定价相反，我们认为，脆弱的就业市场和趋于降温的核心通胀相结合，应有助于推动英国央行在2027降息。
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英国央行将与美联储背道而驰，因通胀保持温和
英国与美国不同——利率仍具有限制性
美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的鹰派言论，加上近期能源价格上涨，意味着市场目前预计英国央行将在未来12个月内加息三次。
我们不同意这种看法；我们认为，到那时英国央行至少已经降息一次。沃什关于美国利率水平不再具有限制性的论点，在英国更难成立。
以就业市场为例。好消息是，根据薪资数据，除酒店业和零售业外，私营部门的招聘已不再下降。坏消息是，招聘调查普遍仍显示裁员将进一步增加。而在消费服务领域，薪资数据按年率计算下降超过3%，而且这一下降速度如果有什么变化的话，仍在恶化。
其结果是，私营部门工资增长处于2.8%，创下新低。即便在调整了数据中所谓的“构成效应”之后，工资增长也终于达到了3.25%的水平，英国央行今年早些时候曾告诉我们，这一水平与中期2%的通胀目标相符。前瞻性调查并未显示即将出现好转。
随着时间推移，经济增长可能会放缓
所有这些都难以与上半年稳健的增长数据相协调。部分原因仅仅在于通胀冲击没有想象中那么严重。但这存在三个更广泛的问题。
首先，自2022,以来，上半年经济增长率一直远高于下半年——而今年月度GDP的走势非常符合这一常见路径。我们与许多其他人一样，怀疑这是由于季节性调整的挑战。而这预示着下半年经济增长将走弱。
其次，增长非常集中。这无疑并非新现象，但三个行业——IT、医疗/社会护理和运输——贡献了英国1.1%年增长率的一半，尽管它们仅占经济产出的17%。上半年强劲的资本支出初步表明，英国正受益于目前席卷美国的人工智能数据中心热潮的缩减版。
第三，建筑业表现非常疲弱。私人住宅建设仍比疫情前水平低20%，这生动地体现了紧缩货币政策对利率敏感行业的影响。
此外还有通胀。我们计算的“能源密集型”通胀今年迄今实际上已经下降，即使考虑到去年水和道路税上调的影响。诚然，这存在滞后性。但特别是食品通胀持续下降，这对英国央行中的鹰派来说应该是好消息。英国央行青睐的“核心服务业”通胀指标今年迄今也有所下降。
除非能源价格出现持续且大幅飙升，否则我们认为到明年初，英国央行将乐于转向更为鸽派的立场。很大程度上将取决于十月份的预算。但目前，我们预计将于2027四月降息。
ING月度：抵御冲击
- 此捆绑包含15篇文章。
完整英文原文
Contrary to market pricing, we think the combination of a fragile jobs market and cooling core inflation should help unlock Bank of England rate cuts in 2027
The UK is not like the US – rates are still restrictive
US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish antics at Jackson Hole, together with the latest rise in energy prices, mean markets are now pricing three rate hikes from the Bank of England over the next 12 months.
We disagree; we think the Bank will have cut rates at least once by then. Warsh’s argument that the level of US interest rates is no longer restrictive is much harder to make in Britain.
Take the jobs market. The good news is that private sector hiring, outside of hospitality and retail, is no longer falling, according to the payroll numbers. The bad news is that the hiring surveys generally still point to further reductions in headcount. And in consumer services, payroll numbers are falling in excess of 3% annualised, and that rate of decline, if anything, is still getting worse.
The result is that private sector wage growth, at 2.8%, is hitting new lows. And even after adjusting for so-called ‘compositional effects’ in the data, it has finally reached the 3.25% level which the BoE told us earlier this year is consistent with a 2% inflation target in the medium term. Forward-looking surveys don’t point to an imminent turnaround.
Growth is likely to slow as the year goes on
All of that is hard to square with the solid growth data in the first half of the year. In part, that is simply because the inflation shock hasn’t been as bad as it could have been. But there are three broader problems with this.
First, ever since 2022, growth has been much stronger in the first half of the year than the second – and the trajectory of monthly GDP this year has very much followed this familiar path. We, like many others, suspect that this is down to seasonal adjustment challenges. And that points to weaker growth in the second half of the year.
Second, growth is very concentrated. This isn’t new, admittedly, but three sectors – IT, health/social care and transport – are contributing half of the UK’s 1.1% annual growth rate, despite only making up 17% of economic output. Strong CapEx in the first half tentatively suggests the UK is benefiting from a scaled-down version of the AI data centre boom currently engulfing the US.
Third, construction has been very weak. Private housebuilding is still 20% below pre-Covid levels, a neat encapsulation of tight monetary policy in a rate-sensitive sector.
Then there’s inflation. Our calculation of ‘energy intensive’ inflation has actually fallen so far this year, even accounting for the impact of last year’s water and road tax hikes. There are lags involved, admittedly. But the fact that food inflation in particular has been falling should be welcome news for the BoE hawks. The Bank’s favoured measure of “core services” inflation is also down so far this year.
Barring a sustained and material spike in energy prices, we think by early next year the BoE will be comfortable pivoting in a more dovish direction. A lot will depend on October’s budget. But for now, we’re pencilling in a rate cut for April 2027.
ING Monthly: Weathering the shocks
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关键论点
- 美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派立场可能不适用于英国，英国的利率仍然具有限制性。
- 私营部门工资增长为2.8%，创下新低，并已达到与2%通胀目标一致的水平。
- 增长数据因季节性调整问题和行业集中而具有误导性。
- 建筑业仍然疲软，私人建房比疫情前水平低20%。
- 今年能源密集型通胀有所下降，核心服务业通胀也在下降。
- 除非能源价格大幅飙升，否则明年初可能转向鸽派。
风险
- 能源价格持续大幅飙升可能阻碍降息。
- 十月份的预算案可能改变财政立场，影响英国央行的决策。
- 如果季节性调整问题得到解决，增长数据可能强于预期。
- 如果‘构成效应’逆转，通胀可能再次抬头。
- 招聘调查可能意外改善，导致工资增长加快。