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法国外贸银行 · Bastien AILLET · 2026/09/03

德国:9月选举升温

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营销通讯:本文件为营销展示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受禁止在投资研究发布前进行交易的规定约束。3年2026月 欧洲、中东及非洲宏观速览 德国:9月选举升温 德国2026年‘超级选举年’预计将在9月达到高潮,届时将在三个东部州举行备受期待的地区选举:萨克森-安哈尔特州于6年9月,随后是柏林和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州于20年9月。鉴于德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州近期民调中大幅领先,该极右翼政党有真实机会首次领导一个德国州政府。这一结果将是对基民盟/基社盟与社民党组成的联邦执政联盟的重大政治打击。德国选择党能否在州级层面掌权——无论是通过多数派还是少数派政府——将影响其在2029,年下次联邦选举前的策略,其最终目标是迫使联邦层面与基民盟/基社盟组成联盟。由于无论地区选举结果如何,联邦执政联盟和绿党仍将保持国内议会控制权,政府的立法能力将不受影响。因此,只要政治意愿持续,通过未来预算和实施德国财政计划的能力可能保持完好。尽管2026年无疑将给联邦执政伙伴带来接连挫折,但地区选举不太可能引发联邦政府垮台或领导权挑战。尽管如此,我们将密切关注两个阵营的动向——尤其是在基民盟/基社盟内部,寻求与德国选择党和解的压力可能随时间加剧。撰写人:Bastien AILLET 电话:+33158553936 bastien.aillet@natixis.com 访问我们的网站了解更多。

EMEA宏观速览 2 超级选举年的赢家与输家 社民党惨败,基民盟喜忧参半,选择党在三月取得胜利 2026 选举周期,被称为“超级选举年”,于三月开始,首先在莱茵兰-普法尔茨州和巴登-符腾堡州举行了两次州选举。中右翼的基民盟在莱茵兰-普法尔茨州获胜,而左翼绿党则成功保住了在巴登-符腾堡州的领先地位(图1)。然而,这两次选举对联邦执政联盟的两个伙伴党都造成了沉重打击。社民党(SPD)的得票率较上次选举大幅下降(图2),并失去了在莱茵兰-普法尔茨州的州长职位。基民盟的挫折则更为复杂:尽管此前在莱茵兰-普法尔茨州的州政府中没有席位(该州政府由社民党/绿党/自民党组成的“红绿灯”联盟领导),但他们赢得了该州。然而,在巴登-符腾堡州,尽管民调预测他们明显领先,他们却意外失利。与此同时,极右翼的选择党(AfD)取得了最显著的突破,在巴登-符腾堡州和莱茵兰-普法尔茨州分别增加了9.1个百分点和11.2个百分点的选票。图1:2026 年巴登-符腾堡州和莱茵兰-普法尔茨州的州选举结果(占所有选票的百分比)图2:2026 至2021 年州选举结果的变化(占所有选票的百分比)资料来源:Natixis CIB Research, dawum 资料来源:Natixis CIB Research, dawum 如果民调准确,九月预计将出现类似动态 这个超级选举年将在九月达到顶峰,届时将举行三个东部州的地区选举,备受关注:首先是9月6日的萨克森-安哈尔特州,随后是9月20日的柏林和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州(或简称MWP)。预计这些选举将遵循类似模式,尤其是在萨克森-安哈尔特州和MWP。在这两个州,选择党预计将赢得最多选票(图3和4)。因此,如果目前的民调保持稳定,基民盟可能失去在萨克森-安哈尔特州的州长席位,而社民党在MWP也可能面临同样命运。鉴于选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州和MWP的近期民调中大幅领先,这个极右翼政党有真实机会领导一个德国州政府,这将是前所未有的。

EMEA宏观快照 3 史上首次。这样的结果将对基民盟/基社盟和社民党的联邦执政联盟构成重大的政治打击。图表3:最新民调与萨安州州选举结果的比较图表4:最新民调与梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州2021州选举结果的比较来源:Natixis企业与投资银行研究部,dawum来源:Natixis企业与投资银行研究部,dawum在柏林,极右翼的德国选择党(AfD)和极左翼预计都将比2023,年的上次选举获得更多选票,而基民盟和社民党预计将失去最多选票。就目前情况而言,我们将看到一个高度分裂的议会,大多数政党将获得总票数的15%至20%。因此,可以排除AfD执政该州的可能性。至于这些发展的其余部分,我们将关注萨安州和梅前州,那里AfD真正有机会进入政府。州选举结果后基民盟-左翼党的困境尽管AfD确实有机会在其中一个州执政,但这并非板上钉钉。事实上,我们认为可能出现三种情景:1。AfD成功获得绝对多数,并在州议会(地区议会)中以绝对多数执政。2。AfD未赢得绝对多数,但以少数派政府执政。3。萨安州的基民盟和梅前州的社民党牵头组成少数派政府,并纳入一个或多个其他政党。区分情景2和情景3的关键,将取决于所有非AfD政党能否团结一致,在州总理选举中通过简单多数对抗AfD的选票。在萨安州,州总理选举通过简单多数进行,是在没有候选人两次获得绝对多数当选之后进行的。

EMEA宏观经济速览 4 多数。随后由州议会(即地区议会)投票决定是否自行解散,从而触发新的选举。如果议会决定不解散,则举行新一轮投票,以简单多数选出部长主席,获胜者将组建政府,尽管在州议会中处于少数。正是这一过程将带来我们的情景 2 和 3。事实上,如果德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州未获得绝对多数,我们预计地区议会不会解散。在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州,与萨克森-安哈尔特州的唯一区别在于,解散投票是在第一次尝试以绝对多数选举部长主席失败后进行的。其余过程类似。我们对情景 1, 2 和 3 分别赋予 20%、30% 和 50% 的概率。相反,我们不设想组建一个包括除德国选择党外所有进入州议会的政党的多数政府——即联盟(基民盟-社民党-绿党(?) - 左翼党)1,因为后者已被其联邦领导人和现任德国总理弗里德里希·默茨及其秘书长弗兰齐斯卡·霍普曼排除,他们表示:“基民盟内部有明确决定:不与德国选择党或左翼党合作”2。尽管如此,即使正式联盟不在考虑之列,基民盟在左翼党默许支持下的少数派政府也可能出现,以阻止德国选择党进入地区政府。同样,社民党在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州得到基民盟或左翼党支持的少数派政府也可能成立3。事实上,德国选择党赢得最多选票但未获得绝对多数的情况已在 12 月的图林根州发生2024。在这种情景下,组建了少数派联盟(基民盟-社民党-莎拉·瓦根克内希特联盟)以阻止德国选择党进入政府。尽管我们认为,就目前情况而言,类似于图林根州的情景可能在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州出现,但我们不能排除德国选择党以少数派政府上台的情景。事实上,如果选举按最新民调进行,德国选择党将赢得议会 83 个席位中的 39,只需 3 票赞成或 5 票弃权即可组建少数派政府。换句话说,每个非德国选择党政党都必须投票支持反对德国选择党的候选人,这给害群之马留下的空间非常小4。1 我们假设,无论是莎拉·瓦根克内希特联盟——在经济上更接近左翼党,但在移民、社会和外交政策上与德国选择党一致——还是自由保守政党自民党,都无法跨越进入州议会所需的 5% 门槛。2 这些声明重申了基民盟于 12 月在汉堡通过的决议2018,该决议明确拒绝与德国选择党和左翼党进行任何形式的联盟、合作或协作,无论是直接的还是间接的。参见《我们对左翼党和德国选择党的立场》3。此可能性考虑了社民党组建少数派政府的情景,一方面与左翼党结盟,另一方面与基民盟结盟。在第一种情况下,基民盟将支持该少数派政府的选举而不实际参与政府;在另一种情况下,左翼党将这样做。4 德国选择党例如可能成功争取到一两个

基民盟议员,或在选举期间迫使他们弃权。同样,左翼党成员可能拒绝投票支持基民盟候选人。

EMEA宏观速览 5 选择党领导的州政府可能带来哪些经济影响?从制度角度看,州政府负责以下职能:1)提出立法;2)编制和执行预算;3)在其职权范围内制定法规;4)与联邦政府谈判;以及5)参与联邦参议院。从经济角度看,州政府的关键杠杆在于其提出和通过预算的能力。然而,若在州议会中缺乏多数席位,这一立法能力(包括通过预算)将受到严重制约,可能对整个国家经济产生影响。尽管如此,鉴于萨克森-安哈尔特州的经济规模相对较小(即€81.7亿欧元的地区生产总值,占德国国内生产总值的1.8%%,数据截至2025年)以及梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州(€63.6亿欧元的地区生产总值,占国内生产总值的1.4%%),无论选举结果如何,这些选举对宏观经济的影响都将微不足道。在联邦层面,州政府可通过其在联邦参议院的代表来影响经济政策。根据这一制度,修改宪法或影响各州预算、组织及行政的法律须经联邦参议院以绝对多数批准。因此,如果联邦参议院反对联邦政府的政策,德国的财政计划可能会受到损害。然而,即便基民盟、社民党和绿党在这三次选举中结果不利,这些政党仍将保留修改任何法律(如《基本法》)所需的三分之二绝对多数。联邦层面不太可能发生政治危机 即便选择党成功执政一个州,我们仍预计联邦层面不会爆发重大政治危机。尽管如此,这一事件可能会在德国政治版图上留下持久伤痕。原因如下:首先,这象征着极右翼在德国的持续崛起,表明联邦政府及其总理无力遏制选择党的上升势头。联邦层面的最新民调清楚显示,联邦政府各政党支持率下滑,而选择党已成为德国遥遥领先的政党(图表5)。选择党的这一成功也可能为党派造势,使其在联邦大选前的下一次地区选举中占据优势。图表 5:联邦议院投票意向 21 13 15 28 12 5 3 01/24 02/24 03/24 04/24 05/24 06/24 07/24 08/24 09/24 10/24 11/24 12/24 01/25 02/25 03/25 04/25 05/25 06/25 07/25 08/25 09/25 10/25 11/25 12/25 01/26 02/26 03/26 04/26 05/26 06/26 07/26 08/26 0/5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 CDU/CSU SPD 绿党 AfD 左翼党 FDP BSW 资料来源:Natixis CIB Research, dawum 议会选举

EMEA宏观速览 6 这种局势还可能进一步削弱本已疲弱的联邦政府执政联盟,以及其总理的地位——去年6月,该总理的支持率已跌至历任总理同期最低。他曾在公开场合反对与德国选择党和解,同时因其养老金改革而面临党内(尤其是东部各州)的尖锐批评,其作为党魁的权威很可能受到质疑。话虽如此,我们认为这些选举的结果不太可能威胁到联邦执政联盟的存续,或引发弗里德里希·默茨总理的下台。这是因为双方都不愿看到政府垮台。两党都在这一财政计划上投入了巨大的政治资本。近期投票意向的下降趋势恰逢中东冲突爆发以及德国选民近几个月经历的物价飙升。就目前情况而言,德国选择党的强劲民调表现在一定程度上可能与糟糕的经济状况有关。然而,德国经济正在积聚动能,一旦中东局势稳定,德国的财政计划 5 应会开始显现成效。眼下联盟若破裂,对双方而言都是政治灾难,而坚持下去最终可能对两党都有利。尽管预计联盟将继续维持,但我们将密切关注两方的反应,尤其是在基民盟内部,寻求与德国选择党和解的压力可能会加大。 5 另见德国宏观展望——增长回归

EMEA宏观速览 7 企业与投资银行研究主管 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE +33 1 58 55 13 09 +33 1 58 55 99 93 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 金融机构研究 Alain DURRE博士 Bouchra RHAJBAL +33 1 58 55 60 49 +33 1 58 55 79 93 alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 德国、欧元区担保债券 Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY +33 1 58 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 1 58 55 05 81 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com 西班牙、意大利、希腊、葡萄牙、欧元区通胀、宏观建模、欧元区 Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA +33 1 58 55 99 90 +33 1 58 55 62 71 jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com CEMEA 英国、北欧、房地产 Inna MUFTEEVA(CFA) Sylwia HUBAR博士 +33 1 58 55 52 04 +33 1 58 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 助理经济学家 Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com 数据库 Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON +33 1 58 55 14 76 +33 1 58 55 99 92 +33 1 58 55 12 65 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com Andriat RAKOTOVAO +33 1 58 55 14 92 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao @natixis.com

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 在萨克森-安哈尔特和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞的民调中领先,德国选择党有真正的机会首次领导一个德国州政府。
  • 如果德国选择党成功,基民盟/基社盟和社民党的联邦执政联盟将遭受重大政治打击。
  • 在萨克森-安哈尔特和梅前州可能出现三种情景:德国选择党绝对多数(20%)、德国选择党少数政府(30%)或非德国选择党少数政府(50%)。
  • 选举的经济影响可忽略不计,因为萨克森-安哈尔特和梅前州仅分别占德国GDP的1.8%和1.4%。
  • 联邦联盟和绿党在联邦参议院仍拥有三分之二多数,保障了修宪能力和财政计划。
  • 联邦层面不太可能发生政治危机;基民盟和社民党都不愿看到政府垮台。
风险
  • 德国选择党可能在梅前州组成少数政府,只需获得3票赞成或5票弃权。
  • 基民盟/基社盟内部寻求与德国选择党和解的压力可能随时间加剧。
  • 如果联邦联盟失去在联邦参议院的三分之二多数席位,其立法能力可能受限,但目前仍保持该多数。