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华侨银行研究 · 2026/09/03

每日信贷简报·市场评论

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通过Telegram搜索“OCBC Research Insights”关注我们的播客! 1 由全球市场部发布 | 3月2026日 每日信贷简报 市场评论 • 隔夜风险情绪出现一定企稳迹象,美国股市收涨(标普500指数:+0.46%;道琼斯指数:+0.56%;纳斯达克指数:+0.45%),美元指数走低,美国国债横盘整理。特朗普总统隔夜表示,对伊朗的新一轮打击可能持续时间较短,此前美国在三天内进行了第二轮军事打击。伊朗对美国在约旦、科威特和巴林的盟友进行了报复。然而,布伦特原油和WTI原油价格小幅下跌,分别结算于每桶95.6美元和每桶91.0美元。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特指出,周一有17百万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡,为冲突开始以来的最高水平。他补充说,目前的石油过境量仍接近8百万桶/日。弱于预期的ADP就业变动为38千,而预期为48千,这与美国劳动力市场“低招聘、低裁员”的动态基本一致。官方发布指出,虽然制造业、专业服务和信息行业裁员,但教育和医疗、建筑业以及休闲和酒店业均录得稳健招聘。相比之下,8月褐皮书显示就业增长非常轻微,三个地区报告温和增长,四个地区报告小幅增长,五个地区报告没有变化。制造业和建筑业的需求保持健康,但零售和酒店业需求减弱。技术工种仍然难以填补,关于人工智能对劳动力需求影响的报告不一,大多数地区的工资增长保持温和至中等水平。在物价方面,褐皮书指出八个地区的物价温和上涨。联邦基金期货温和降低了今年加息的预期,降至37.8bp个基点,而本周早些时候为40bp个基点。其他数据,包括工厂订单(7月环比增长0.9%%,6月为-0.2%%)和耐用品订单(7月终值为1.1%%),表明制造业具有韧性。霍华德·卢特尼克告诉CNBC,特朗普政府正准备对半导体进口征收更广泛的关税,尽管在美国生产芯片的公司可能会获得一些减免。加拿大央行如普遍预期维持政策利率不变。 • 新加坡元SORA OIS曲线隔夜持平至走高,短端利率持平至上涨0至-2bp个基点,中期利率上涨2至-3bp个基点,10年期利率上涨3bp个基点。 • 没有明显的资金流动。 • 美国投资级债券利差收窄1bp至80bp个基点,美国高收益债券利差分别收窄1bp至264bp个基点。彭博全球或有资本债券利差收窄2bp至205bp个基点。 • 彭博亚洲美元投资级债券利差收窄1bp至57bp个基点,亚洲美元高收益债券利差收窄7bp至325bp个基点。(彭博,华侨银行) Andrew Wong 信用研究分析师 Ezien Hoo 信用研究分析师 Wong Hong Wei 信用研究分析师 Chin Meng Tee 信用研究分析师 Aleen Lee Li Fei 信用研究分析师 Yao Liu 信用研究分析师 Eshita Suvarna 信用研究分析师

关注我们的播客,请在Telegram上搜索“OCBC Research Insights”!2 由全球市场部 | 3 九月 2026 信用摘要:公司 代码 描述 BP p.l.c BPLN • BPLN宣布伊恩·泰勒先生为董事会主席。他立即上任,为董事会带来一定稳定性。泰勒先生于2025年四月以非执行董事身份加入董事会,并于26年五月2026日被任命为临时主席。• 泰勒先生是在BPLN解除阿尔伯特·马尼福尔德先生仅八个月的董事会主席职务后被任命为临时主席的,理由为公司治理和行为问题,而马尼福尔德先生对此提出异议。• 近年来,BPLN的董事会和高级管理层经历了一系列变动。尽管如此,鉴于公司重新聚焦油气业务并优先加强资产负债表,我们维持对公司的信用概况。• 另外,壳牌公司(“RDSALN”)将购买巴西近海桑托斯盆地的图皮南巴勘探区块的50%%股份,以及墨西哥湾深水古近系康尼弗勘探前景的五个租约中的30%%股份。BPLN将保留图皮南巴剩余50%%权益和康尼弗70%%权益。该项交易需获得监管批准,交易金额未公布,但符合其成为更简单公司以及更严格资本配置策略。 (公司、彭博、AFR、路透)最新报告:信用更新 – 07年四月2026日 置地REIT LMRTSP • LMRTSP宣布,将两只现有新加坡元永续债券的基准重置利率从SOR改为SORA的同意征求已正式通过。• LMRTSP 6.4751%-PERP的分派率将于27年九月2026日重置,公式为SORA 5Y + 524.5bp个基点 + 31.12bp个基点调整利差。• LMRTSP 8.096%-PERP SORA的分派率将于19年十二月2027日重置,公式为SORA 5Y + 475.5bp个基点 + 31.12bp个基点调整利差。最新报告:信用更新 – 30年七月2026日 太古股份有限公司 SWIRE • SWIRE加速赎回了港币4.7亿元的SWIRE 0% ‘27s,这是一只可交换债券,允许持有人转换为国泰航空有限公司(“CATHAY”)的股份。• 赎回资金将由SWIRE通过配售股份筹集,即出售362.62百万股CATHAY股份,每股售价为港币13.20元。• 交易完成后,SWIRE在CATHAY中的持股比例将下降5.96个百分点至39.15%。• 我们认为该交易为信用中性事件。(公司、彭博、OCBC)最新报告:信用更新 – 31年十月2025日

关注我们的播客,请在Telegram上搜索“OCBC Research Insights”!3 由全球市场部 | 3 九月 2026 新发行:• 昨日亚太地区美元和发达市场投资级的新发行量均为零(前一日:分别为美元4.3亿元和美元2亿元)(彭博、OCBC)授权:• Clifford Capital Holdings Pte Ltd可能定价美元计价浮动利率票据和次级永续债券。• Hana Securities Co., Ltd.可能发行美元计价30NC5次级资本证券。

在 Telegram 上搜索“OCBC Research Insights”并关注我们的播客!4 由全球市场团队提供 | 3月2026日 关键市场动态 3-Sep 1W变动(基点) 1M变动(基点) 3-Sep 1W变动 1M变动 iTraxx亚洲投资级 67 0 -2 布伦特原油现货(美元/桶) 95.0 5.9% 13.4% 黄金现货(美元/盎司) 4,430 -3.7% 9.3% iTraxx日本 56 -1 -6 CRB商品指数 417 3.8% 9.7% iTraxx澳大利亚 68 1 -2 标普商品指数 - GSCI 736 4.5% 10.1% CDX北美投资级 51 0 -1 VIX 15.2 -0.1% -4.2% CDX北美高收益 108 -0 -0 美国10年期国债收益率 4.77% 9bp 9bp iTraxx欧元主指数 52 1 1 iTraxx欧元交叉指数 252 5 1 澳元/美元 0.717 -0.4% 2.4% iTraxx欧元优先金融债 54 1 1 欧元/美元 1.160 -0.5% 0.8% iTraxx欧元次级金融债 88 1 2 美元/新加坡元 1.270 0.1% 1.0% 澳元/新加坡元 0.910 0.5% -1.4% 美元互换利差(10年期) -38 0 3 澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数 9,014 -0.3% -0.1% 美元互换利差(30年期) -68 1 7 道琼斯工业平均指数 53,062 -0.8% -0.2% 标普500指数 7,667 -0.1% 0.9% 中国5年期信贷违约互换 35 -0 -3 MSCI亚洲(不含日本)指数 1,122 -1.5% 2.8% 马来西亚5年期信贷违约互换 34 0 -3 恒生指数 25,302 -1.0% -2.7% 印度尼西亚5年期信贷违约互换 85 1 -7 新加坡海峡时报指数 5,770 1.5% 2.8% 泰国5年期信贷违约互换 41 1 -1 马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数 1,711 -2.2% -0.9% 澳大利亚5年期信贷违约互换 13 -1 -1 雅加达综合指数 6,664 2.2% 6.9% 欧盟斯托克指数 50 6,362 -1.7% -1.0% 来源:彭博

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 风险情绪企稳,美股收高,得益于特朗普总统关于对伊朗袭击可能短暂的言论。
  • 尽管地缘政治紧张,油价仍小幅下跌,布伦特和WTI分别收于每桶95.6美元和91.0美元。
  • ADP就业变化低于预期,为38k,预期48k,表明劳动力市场'低招聘、低裁员',与褐皮书报告的就业温和增长一致。
  • 联邦基金期货将今年的加息预期下调至37.8个基点。
  • 制造业表现韧性,工厂订单和耐用品订单均好于预期。
  • 美国投资级利差走阔1个基点至80个基点,而高收益利差收窄1个基点至264个基点。
风险
  • 中东地缘政治升级可能导致供应中断和油价上涨,尽管短期企稳。
  • 美国劳动力市场疲软可能持续,影响消费支出和经济增长。
  • 半导体进口关税可能影响全球科技供应链和贸易关系。
  • 如果风险情绪进一步恶化,信贷利差可能走阔。