II 全球机构情报

初步看法:新西兰建筑许可,2026年7月

前往官网原文 ↗
完整研报正文
完整中文译文

初步看法:新西兰建筑许可,2026年7月

住宅许可数量(7月当月):-4.3%,前值:-3.7%

住宅许可数量(截至7月的12个月):+20.7%,前值:+19.4%

非住宅许可价值(截至7月的12个月):-2.5%,前值:-2.8%

非住宅许可建筑面积(截至7月的12个月):-0.3%,前值:-1.4%

尽管7月有所下滑,住宅许可水平仍处于高位。

尽管7月有所回落,未来一年住宅建筑活动的前景依然稳固。

7月住宅建筑许可数量下降了5%。这完全在通常的月度波动范围之内。

从长期趋势来看,住宅建设的前景依然乐观。在过去12个月里,新住宅许可数量略低于41,000套。这是三年来的最高水平。

放眼全国,计划中的建筑工程量增长仍然高度集中于奥克兰(过去一年许可数量上升了20%)和坎特伯雷(上升了33%)。然而,我们也看到许多其他地区的计划建筑活动在增加,其中大部分与中型密度开发项目相关。

我们预计,许可数量的增加将带动今年下半年住宅建筑活动的提升,并延续至2027年。

然而,我们对建筑活动将上升多少以及上升趋势能持续多久仍持谨慎态度。尽管许可水平较高,但自5月以来,每月获批的新项目数量一直在趋于平缓。此外,我们听到越来越多关于建筑成本上升和利率上行的担忧,同时住房市场持续疲软。我们还看到人口增长持续低迷,以及过去几年可用住房数量的大幅增加。这些因素的组合表明,未来一年住宅建筑行业将面临一些日益增强的不利因素。

非住宅活动持续疲软

在商业领域,计划中的工程继续回落。尽管在建的工业/仓储空间数量更具韧性,但正在开发的新办公空间数量一直在回落,而零售空间开发量仍处于低位。

由于经济状况疲软,且经济前景存在不确定性,开发商和承租方在短期内可能会对重大资本支出保持谨慎。

与这些趋势一致,我们预计即将发布的建筑工程调查(周五公布)将显示,6月当季非住宅建筑活动再次下降,延续了过去两年的趋势。

浏览主题

©2026 西太平洋银行股份有限公司 ABN 33 007 457 141(包括以西太平洋银行、圣乔治银行、墨尔本银行或南澳银行品牌运营的任何主体,统称“西太平洋银行”)。提及“西太平洋银行集团”系指西太平洋银行及其子公司,并包括西太平洋银行及其子公司的董事、员工和代表。

我们尊重您的隐私:您可以在此处查看新西兰隐私政策,或在此处查看澳大利亚集团隐私声明。每次有人访问我们的网站,我们都会捕获数据,以便准确评估我们内容的质量并为您改进。我们有时可能使用技术捕获有关您的数据,以帮助我们更好地了解您和您的需求,包括可能用于评估您的个人阅读习惯和兴趣,以便我们提供其他可能适合您的阅读材料的建议。

除非另有特别说明,本信息均受西太平洋银行集团版权保护。未经西太平洋银行集团事先书面许可,不得以任何方式修改、传输、复制或分发本材料的任何部分、其内容或其任何副本。

完整英文原文

Residential consent numbers (July month): -4.3%, previous: -3.7%

Residential consent numbers (12 months to July): +20.7%, previous: +19.4%

Non-residential consent values (12 months to July): -2.5%, previous: -2.8%

Non-residential amount of floor space consented (12 months to July): -0.3%, previous: -1.4%

Dwelling consent levels still elevated despite slipping in July.

Despite nudging back in July, the outlook for residential building activity over the coming year continues to look firm.

Residential building consent numbers fell 5% in July. That’s well within the bounds of the normal month-to-month swings we typically see.

Stepping back and looking at the longer-term trend, the outlook for home building remains positive. Over the past 12 months, just under 41,000 new dwellings were consented. That’s the highest level in three years.

Looking across the country, the lift in planned building work continues to be heavily centred on Auckland (where consent numbers are up 20% over the past year) and Canterbury (up 33%). However, we’re also seeing planned building activity rising in many other regions, with much of that work related to medium density developments.

We expect the rise in consents will flow through to a lift in home building activity through the latter part of this year, continuing into 2027.

However, we remain cautious about how far building activity will rise and how enduring the upswing will be. While consent levels are elevated, the number of new projects being approved each month has been flattening off since May. In addition, we’re hearing increasing concerns about increasing build costs and rising interest rates, along with continued softness in the housing market. We’re also seen continued low levels of population growth, and a large increase in the number of available homes over the past few years. That combination of factors signals some increasing headwinds for the residential construction sector over the coming year.

Non-residential activity continuing to look soggy

In the commercial space, planned work is continuing to ease back. While the amount of industrial / storage space in the works has been more resilient, the amount of new office space in development has been easing back and retail space in development remains low.

With sluggish economic conditions and ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook, developers and occupiers are likely to remain cautious about committing to major capital expenditure in the near term.

Consistent with those trends, we expect the upcoming building work survey (out Friday) will show that non-residential building activity fell again in the June quarter, continuing the trend seen over the past two years.

Browse topics

©2026 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.

We respect your privacy: You can view the New Zealand Privacy Policy here, or the Australian Group Privacy Statement here. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.

This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.

This information has been prepared by Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.

This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.

Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.

Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.

Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.

Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.

New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz.

Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Fiji: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac Fiji are available from www.westpac.com.fj © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia and registered as a branch in Fiji. The liability of its members is limited.

Papua New Guinea: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac PNG are available from www.westpac.com.pg © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia. Westpac is represented in Papua New Guinea by Westpac Bank - PNG - Limited. The liability of its members is limited.

U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM and obligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac.

This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.

The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.

UK: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.

This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.

European Economic Area (“EEA”): This material may be distributed to you by either: (i) Westpac directly, or (ii) Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) under a sub-licensing arrangement. WEG has not edited or otherwise modified the content of this material. WEG is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac. Any product or service made available by WEG does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WEG). All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WEG.

This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.

Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.

To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

预览 PDF
1 / 110%

正在载入文档……

AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 住宅许可数量7月环比下滑4.3%,但水平仍处于高位。
  • 12个月住宅许可数量上升20.7%,为三年最高,新建住宅接近41,000套。
  • 地区增长强劲:奥克兰过去一年上升20%,坎特伯雷上升33%。
  • 西太平洋银行预计许可增加将推动住宅建设活动在2026年末及2027年增长。
  • 阻力因素:自5月以来审批量趋于平稳、建筑成本和利率上升、房市疲软、人口增长低迷以及住房供应增加。
  • 非住宅活动持续疲软,尽管工业/仓储空间有韧性,但办公和零售空间开发减少。
  • 西太平洋银行预计即将发布的建筑工作调查将显示6月季度非住宅建筑活动再次下滑。
  • 由于经济状况疲软,开发商和租户可能对近期的大额资本支出保持谨慎。
风险
  • 自5月以来审批量趋于平稳,可能表明上升势头正在减弱。
  • 建筑成本和利率上升可能抑制建筑活动。
  • 房市持续疲软可能削弱新项目动工意愿。
  • 人口增长低迷和住房供应增加可能减少对新住宅的需求。