德国经济周期似乎已转向上行。
德国经济表现相当强劲……
德国经济形势已经好转。根据上周二发布的最新GDP数据，德国经济第二季度的增长比此前预期的还要强劲。因此，在过去三个季度中，经济产出平均每个季度比上一季度增长0.35%。按年化计算，这相当于1.5%的增长率，明显高于通常估计不足1%的潜在增长率。
完整研报正文
完整中文译文
德国——经济周期向上
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- 德国——经济周期向上（pdf，181 KB）
德国供应链——更具韧性，但并非无懈可击
08/21/2026 - 德国企业的供应链正在发生变化。
中国是否会碾压欧洲汽车工业？
08/14/2026 - 中国汽车制造商在国内外市场份额均在增长，……
主权债务——利率上升的风险
08/07/2026 - 近几个月来，欧洲政府债券收益率明显上升。
完整英文原文
The German economic cycle appears to have turned to the upside.
German Economy posts a fairly strong gain ...
The economic situation in Germany has taken a turn for the better. According to the latest GDP figures released last Tuesday, the German economy grew even more strongly in the second quarter than previously assumed. As a result, economic output has risen by an average of 0.35% in each of the last three quarters compared to the previous quarter. Extrapolated over the year, this corresponds to a growth rate of 1.5%, which is significantly higher than the potential growth rate, generally estimated at less than 1%.
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- Germany – Upwards in the economic cycle (pdf, 181 KB)
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08/21/2026 - The supply chains of German companies are changing.
Will China roll over the European auto industry?
08/14/2026 - Chinese automakers are gaining market share both at home and abroad,...
Sovereign debt – The risk of rising rates
08/07/2026 - Yields on European government bonds have risen noticeably in recent months.
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关键论点
- 德国经济周期已转向上升。
- 第二季度GDP增长强于最初预期。
- 过去三个季度平均每季度增长0.35%，折合年化增长率为1.5%。
- 这一增长率显著高于估计的不到1%的潜在增长率。
风险
- 由于数据修正或外部冲击，增长率可能向下修正。
- 全球需求放缓可能抑制德国出口导向型经济。
- 地缘政治紧张或供应链中断可能影响经济活动。