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31 八月 2026, 09:10 UTC 首席投资办公室 GWM 投资研究 美国与委内瑞拉协议:储量巨大,但短期内难以增加产量 UBS 每日观点 - 美国 Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi,美洲首席投资官兼全球股票主管,UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) Mark Haefele,全球财富管理首席投资官,UBS Switzerland AG Giovanni Staunovo,策略师,UBS Switzerland AG James Dobson,CFA,CIO 股票策略师,美国能源与公用事业,UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) Alejo Czerwonko,新兴市场首席投资官,UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) Kurt Reiman,美洲固定收益主管,UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) Jon Gordon,策略师,UBS AG 香港分行 Andrew Dubinsky,美国经济学家,UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) 喜欢听音频?UBS 每日观点现已在多个平台提供音频版本。今日版将很快上线。在 UBS、Spotify 或 Apple Podcasts 上收听。来自演播室 播客:Signal over Noise:如何为物理人工智能时代布局,可在 Apple 和 Spotify 上收听。 (6 分钟) 播客:Jump Start | 美国数据成焦点,博通财报 (5 分钟) 视频:AI 秀 | 英伟达的指引及我们对中国硬件板块的升级 (4 分钟) 视频:深度探究 | 黄金和大宗商品的布局 (5 分钟) 当日观点 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周五晚宣布与委内瑞拉达成协议,赋予美国公司在开发该国 17 个油田(已探明储量超过 65 亿桶)中的主要角色。委内瑞拉临时总统德尔西·罗德里格斯随后表示,这项为期 25 年的协议目标是将日产量提高到超过 1.5 百万桶,并需要超过 100 亿美元的私营部门投资。面对政治批评,她还表示将保留委内瑞拉对其自然资源的所有权与主权。特朗普随后表示,未来委内瑞拉的产量将用于补充美国战略石油储备,目前该储备处于 44 年来的低点。鉴于原油品质和储存要求的不同,具体的实施机制尚不明确。 美委协议是在油价高企和霍尔木兹海峡持续紧张的背景下达成的。周一,在美国军队击中伊朗在拉拉克岛上的两个发射装置后,布伦特原油价格上涨超过 2%。伊朗革命卫队随即对驻约旦的美军发动了报复性袭击。我们认为,美委协议具有战略意义。但由于几个原因,短期内不太可能实质性地改变石油市场前景: 值得关注:1 九月 • 日本八月消费者信心指数 • 欧元区八月通胀率 • 美国八月 ISM 制造业采购经理人指数 • 美国七月 JOLTS 职位空缺数 本报告由 UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS)、UBS Switzerland AG、UBS AG 香港分行编制。请参阅文末的重要免责声明和披露。第 1 页,共 7 页

每日美国霍尔木兹海峡中断仍是主导驱动因素。尽管围绕委内瑞拉储量的头条新闻不断,但鉴于供应和通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运风险,油价继续主要对海湾地区的事态发展做出反应。冲突前,全球约五分之一的石油贸易通过该海峡,这使得任何对这些流动的威胁都会立即对价格产生影响。美国财政部的新一轮经济制裁运动已经针对一家银行,并预计在未来几周内扩大,这可能会进一步加剧紧张局势。还存在一种风险,即美国更强的经济压力可能促使伊朗再次对海湾地区的能源基础设施和航运进行报复。委内瑞拉的产量增长将需要数年时间。即使在乐观假设下,委内瑞拉也面临巨大的运营挑战。该国目前日产约1.12百万桶,尽管拥有全球最大的已探明储量,这反映了多年来的投资不足、制裁、基础设施恶化和电力短缺。自今年年初以来,石油产量仅增加了约100,000-200,000桶/日,突显了从低基数重建产能的难度。实质性增长需要大规模投资、技术专长、新的运输基础设施和稳定的运营环境。综合来看,这些制约因素表明,该协议不会实质性影响2026年原油供需平衡。该协议的法律和政治持久性不确定。尚未公布任何正式协议、法令或合同,且对该安排如何符合委内瑞拉法律以及两国未来政府可能如何看待它仍存疑问。该协议可能被构建以避免美国国会批准,如果民主党在11月中期选举中重新控制任一议院,这可能变得重要。无论如何,法律挑战不能被排除,国际能源公司在投入大量资本之前,需要确信该框架能够在两国的政治变化中生存。我们认为,私人投资水平将与由此产生的法律和政治框架的稳定性密切相关。一个关键的近期晴雨表将是,这相对于美洲其他地方风险和执行力较低的机会能吸引多少投资。因此,尽管美委宣布加强了对该国能源部门长期潜力的认可,但我们预计对原油或美国汽油价格几乎没有即时影响。关键价格驱动因素仍然是美伊冲突、通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运量以及全球能源需求的更广泛轨迹。我们预测2026,年12月布伦特原油价格约为每桶85美元,如果美伊冲突再次升级,近期该观点存在上行风险。我们继续认为,广泛的大宗商品敞口具有价值,既是潜在回报来源,也是地缘政治压力和通胀不确定时期的投资组合分散工具。在美国股票中,我们对能源板块维持中性观点。在因原油价格上涨和炼油利润率强劲而年初至今表现强劲之后,我们预计该板块将更符合大盘表现。在该板块内,我们倾向于选择性配置油田服务,这应受益于上升的inte

未来几年的国际支出。第 2 页,共 7 页。

每日美国关注要点 美联储加息风险上升。美联储主席凯文·沃什上周五在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话,为美国通胀进展设定了更高门槛,称政策制定者必须确信潜在通胀正“清晰且以足够快的速度”朝着美联储的目标迈进。他表示,鉴于经济增长健康、劳动力市场稳定以及金融条件几乎没有限制性迹象,美联储的主要关注点应放在物价上。利率期货将美联储 15 月 -16 日会议加息概率从此前的约 35-40% 推高至接近 60%%(原文遗漏,现修正)。两年期美国国债收益率上升 12 basis points 个基点,美元指数走强,黄金下跌。即将公布的就业和通胀数据将成为9月会议前的最后重大考验。我们的观点:尽管9月加息风险上升,但近期通胀和就业趋势仍支持耐心观望。6月和7月核心个人消费支出物价指数环比涨幅接近 0.2%%。与更广泛的核心指数相比,更接近可观察交易价格的市场性通胀指标也显示价格压力不那么持久。石油和关税敏感类别的价格上行压力已有所缓解,供应链瓶颈指标总体改善。同时,7月私人部门就业人数下降,前期招聘预估遭下修,这降低了收紧政策的紧迫性。我们的基准情形仍然是,潜在通胀持续进展将允许美联储今年保持利率不变。然而,若月度核心通胀率持续接近 0.3%%,或先前供给冲击引发更广泛的第二轮效应,将进一步收紧的风险将上升。我们继续看好久期在2至5年的优质债券,以锁定高收益率。 日本股市保持吸引力。8月最后一个交易日,日经 225 指数小幅走低,因美债收益率持续高企且地缘政治紧张局势持续。该指数自6月下旬创历史新高以来已下跌超过 8%%。然而,日本股市今年仍是表现最佳的发达市场之一,年初至今涨幅超过 31%%。我们的观点:强劲的盈利、货币政策正常化以及结构性增长趋势应支持日本股市进一步上涨,我们如此认为。除去一次性因素,日本企业利润在6月当季同比增长超过 30%%,我们预计截至3月结束的财年中,日本企业盈利将增长 12%%。与此同时,日本央行进一步加息将为银行和寿险公司创造更有利的环境,而持续的AI投资和电气化长期趋势应惠及领先的半导体设备和零部件制造商,以及工业和重型机械企业。我们维持对日本股市的“超配”评级,并倾向于在AI、周期性和结构性受益股之间进行均衡配置。第 3 页,共 7 页

每日美国市场动态 资料来源:彭博、Factset、瑞银 第 4 页,共 7 页

附录 非传统资产类别是指包括对冲基金、私募股权、私募信贷、房地产和管理期货(统称为另类投资)在内的另类投资。另类投资基金权益仅向合格投资者销售,且仅通过包含有关另类投资基金风险、业绩和费用信息的发行文件销售,建议客户在认购前仔细阅读并保留该等文件。对另类投资基金的投资具有投机性,并涉及重大风险。具体而言,这些投资(1)不是共同基金,且不受与共同基金相同的监管要求约束;(2)业绩可能波动较大,投资者可能损失全部或大部分投资;(3)可能采用杠杆和其他投机性投资做法,这可能会增加投资损失的风险;(4)属于长期、非流动性投资,基金权益通常不存在二级市场,预计也不会形成二级市场;(5)另类投资基金权益通常缺乏流动性,且转让受限;(6)可能无需向投资者提供定期定价或估值信息;(7)通常涉及复杂的税务策略,向投资者分发税务信息可能存在延迟;(8)需承担高额费用,包括管理费及其他费用和开支,这些都会降低利润。另类投资基金权益并非任何银行或其他受保存款机构的存款或债务,也不由其担保或背书,且不受联邦存款保险公司、联邦储备委员会或任何其他政府机构的联邦保险保障。潜在投资者在投资另类投资基金前应了解这些风险,并具备长期接受这些风险的财务能力和意愿,应将另类投资基金视为整体投资计划的补充。除一般适用于另类投资的风险外,以下是与投资这些策略相关的额外风险:• 对冲基金风险:投资对冲基金存在特定相关风险,可能包括与卖空、期权、小盘股、“垃圾债券”、衍生品、不良证券、非美国证券和非流动性投资相关的风险。• 管理期货:投资管理期货项目存在特定相关风险。例如,并非所有管理人始终专注于所有策略,管理期货策略可能具有重大方向性因素。• 房地产:投资房地产产品和房地产投资信托基金存在特定相关风险。这些风险包括与债务相关的风险、总体经济或当地市场状况的不利变化、政府、税收、房地产和分区法律或法规的变化、与资本追缴相关的风险,以及对于某些房地产产品,与是否符合联邦税法下优惠待遇资格相关的风险。• 私募股权:投资私募股权存在特定相关风险。资本追缴可能需要在短期内发出通知,未能满足资本追缴要求可能导致重大损失。

包括但不限于投资本金全部损失等不利后果。• 私募信贷:投资私募信贷存在特定风险。这可能包括因贷款违约而造成的损失,在重大不利情况下可能导致投资出现重大亏损。• 外汇/货币风险:投资于美国境外发行人的证券的投资者应知悉,即使证券以美元计价,美元与发行人“本国”货币之间汇率的变化也可能对这些证券的市场价值和流动性产生意外影响。这些证券还可能受到美国投资者可能不易知晓的其他风险(如政治、经济或监管变动)的影响。第 5 页,共 7 页

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 霍尔木兹海峡扰动仍是油价主导因素;委内瑞拉产量提升需多年时间。
  • 沃什鹰派讲话后美联储加息风险上升;数据将是关键。
  • 强劲盈利、政策正常化和结构性增长支持日本股市。
  • 美国能源板块预计与大盘同步;选择性看好油服行业。
风险
  • 美伊冲突再次升级可能推高油价。
  • 核心通胀持续接近0.3%或第二轮效应可能促使美联储收紧政策。
  • 委内瑞拉协议的法律和政治持久性不确定。
  • 地缘政治紧张持续影响市场。