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瑞银CIO观点:沃什时代对美联储政策意味着什么?

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31 八月 2026, 日至 08 日,19 UTC 首席投资办公室 GWM 投资研究 沃什时代对美联储政策意味着什么?瑞银全球财富管理简报 Andrew Dubinsky,美国经济学家,瑞银金融服务公司(UBS FS);Vincent Heaney,策略师,瑞银伦敦分行;Alison Parums,策略师,瑞银瑞士股份公司 关键信息 美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就美国通胀发表了更为偏鹰派的讲话,促使市场提高了九月加息的可能性。但我们认为,随着未来几个月潜在通胀数据有望缓和,美联储仍将维持利率不变。我们继续看好二至五年期优质债券,以锁定收益率。01 主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔演讲中就通胀发表了更为偏鹰派的言论。 • 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在七月将联邦基金利率维持在3.50-3.75%不变,但三次偏鹰派的异议凸显了美国通胀方面持续的担忧。 • 在八月举行的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上,沃什表示,政策制定者需要看到明确证据表明潜在通胀正朝美联储2%的目标迈进。 • 利率期货将15-16月会议加息的可能性提升至接近60%,而在此次讲话前约为35-40%。02 我们的基线预期仍然是美联储将维持利率不变。 • 美国通胀数据已有所缓和。核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀在六月和七月环比接近0.2%,如果这种趋势持续,美联储应能维持利率不变。 • 就业增长已有所放缓,降低了收紧政策的紧迫性。 • 下半年美国经济增长趋缓以及通胀降温应支持逐步转向下调政策利率,预计在2027年实现。03 我们仍看好短中期优质债券。 • 我们认为目前短中期债券的收益率相对较高,具有吸引力。 • 我们继续看好二至五年期优质债券,以锁定收益率。 • 我们认为美联储的总体政策仍将支撑美国股市,我们倾向于对该资产类别采取均衡多元的投资策略。本周新动态 主席沃什在周五的杰克逊霍尔演讲中,为美国通胀进展设定了更高的门槛。他表示:“我们必须确信潜在通胀正以足够快的速度明确朝着我们的目标迈进,否则我们仍有工作要做。”一句话观点 尽管加息风险上升,但我们的基线预期是美联储将按兵不动,因为未来几个月潜在通胀可能降温。您是否了解? • FOMC在六月声明中删除了前瞻指引,并大幅缩短了声明,现在仅提供对经济状况的总体评估。 • 主席沃什未提交利率预测,这与他早先对点阵图框架的批评一致。这种部分参与凸显了对点阵图框架日益增长的怀疑,并引发对其未来角色的疑问。 • 现金相对其他资产长期表现不佳:自1926年以来,股票在10年期所有时期中的86%以及20年期所有时期中的100%表现优于现金。投资观点 我们认为,短中期优质债券的收益率相对较高,为锁定持久的投资组合收入提供了机会。同时,我们也认为美联储的政策将保持整体支持性,有利于美国股市。本报告由瑞银金融服务公司(UBS FS)、瑞银伦敦分行以及瑞银瑞士股份公司编制。

重要免责声明和披露信息请参见第3页开始的内容。第1页,共4页

非传统资产 非传统资产类别是指包括对冲基金、私募股权、房地产和管理期货在内的另类投资(统称“另类投资”)。另类投资基金权益仅向合格投资者销售,且仅通过包含风险、业绩和费用信息的发售文件进行,客户在认购前应仔细阅读并保留这些文件。对另类投资基金的投资具有投机性,并涉及重大风险。具体而言,这些投资(1)并非共同基金,不受与共同基金相同的监管要求约束;(2)业绩可能波动较大,投资者可能损失全部或大部分投资;(3)可能采用杠杆和其他投机性投资策略,这可能增加投资损失的风险;(4)属于长期、非流动性投资,基金权益通常不存在二级市场,且预计不会形成二级市场;(5)另类投资基金权益通常缺乏流动性,并受到转让限制;(6)可能无需向投资者提供定期定价或估值信息;(7)通常涉及复杂的税务策略,向投资者分发税务信息可能存在延迟;(8)需承担高额费用,包括管理费和其他费用,这些费用将减少利润。另类投资基金权益并非任何银行或其他受保存款机构的存款或债务,亦非由其担保或背书,且不受联邦存款保险公司、联邦储备委员会或任何其他政府机构的联邦保险。潜在投资者应了解这些风险,并在投资另类投资基金前具备长期接受这些风险的财务能力和意愿,并应将另类投资基金视为整体投资计划的补充。除适用于另类投资的一般风险外,以下是与投资这些策略相关的额外风险:

 对冲基金风险:投资对冲基金存在特定风险,可能包括与卖空、期权、小盘股、“垃圾债券”、衍生品、困境证券、非美国证券和非流动性投资相关的风险。

 管理期货:投资管理期货项目存在特定风险。例如,并非所有经理在任何时候都专注于所有策略,且管理期货策略可能具有重大的方向性因素。

 房地产:投资房地产产品和房地产投资信托存在特定风险。它们涉及与债务相关的风险、总体经济或当地市场状况的不利变化、政府、税收、房地产和分区法律或法规的变化、资本催缴相关的风险,对于某些房地产产品,还有资格享受联邦税法优惠待遇的相关风险。

 私募股权:投资私募股权存在特定风险。资本催缴可能在短时间内发出,未能满足资本催缴可能导致重大不利后果。

后果,包括但不限于投资全部损失。外汇/货币风险:投资于美国境外发行人所发行证券的投资者应知悉,即使证券以美元计价,美元与发行人“本国”货币之间汇率的变化也可能对这些证券的市场价值和流动性产生意外影响。这些证券也可能受到美国投资者未必知晓的其他风险(如政治、经济或监管变化)的影响。瑞银CIO WM 31 八月 2026 页 2,共 4

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AI 分析
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关键论点
  • 核心PCE通胀在6月和7月环比接近0.2%,这一速度应能让美联储维持观望。
  • 就业增长放缓,降低了收紧政策的紧迫性。
  • 下半年经济增长可能放缓和通胀回落应支持在2027年逐步转向降息。
风险
  • 加息风险上升;如果通胀未能放缓,美联储可能加息。
  • 市场对9月加息的预期可能引发波动。