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法国外贸银行 · Alicia GARCIA HERRERO · 2026/09/02

评论:全球AI的不对称分裂

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营销通讯:本文件为营销展示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受制于在投资研究传播前禁止交易的任何规定。2年9月2026日 亚太主题洞察 评论:全球AI的不对称分裂 过去一年中,两种相互竞争的AI架构开始成形。2025年12月,美国发起了由国务院主导的“Pax Silica”联盟,旨在保障AI技术所依赖的供应链——包括关键矿产、半导体和AI基础设施。七个月后,即2026,年7月,中国在上海召集了29个国家,成立了世界人工智能合作组织(WAICO),这是一个面向全球南方的政府间机构。目前两者均未形成定型的集团;都仍处于构建之中。即便如此,本月华盛顿据报警告了其AI机会声明的签署国,称它们不能同时属于两个阵营——“事事参与即毫无参与。”人们的本能反应是质疑AI是否即将一分为二。更有价值的问题是,分裂可能在何处真正形成,因为答案因技术的不同层面而异。为解决此问题,一种方法是,将AI与以往技术在分裂/碎片化与全球化方面进行对比。互联网和电话系统在表面层面发生了碎片化,尤其是在中国,因防火墙的存在,但也普遍通过数据本地化规则和国家管控——但在基础层面从未分裂,因为网络的覆盖越广其价值越大,没有任何竞争者能够承担独立的底层架构。AI是否遵循同样的规则尚不确定。AI是否会分裂,以及分裂的深度,取决于哪些层面能被单一行为者控制,而我们已能看到,该技术栈中的某些关键部分正在分化,即在美国与中国之间分离。(接下页) 作者:Alicia GARCIA HERRERO 电话:+85239008680 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com 本文为转载。原文首发于财新全球。了解更多内容,请访问我们的网站 https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-09-01/commentary-the-asymmetric-fracture-of-global-ai-102480694.html

亚洲主题洞察 2 硬件可以被分割 硬件层是技术栈的核心点之一,因此,长期主导该层的美国试图通过出口管制将其圈定。先进芯片、制造芯片的光刻技术以及高带宽内存已成为美国追求人工智能主导地位的关键瓶颈。Pax Silica 的一个关键方面是协调这些瓶颈——在拥有这种能力的成员之间——但也包括获取出口管制之外的芯片以及共享计算基础设施。软件无法分割 模型层则是另一回事,而正是在这里,分裂的雄心遇到了现实。开放权重模型——如 DeepSeek、Qwen、Kimi——已在全球范围内被下载和运行,一旦权重发布就无法召回。限制模型的使用方式将意味着监管每一个运行模型的开发者和企业;制裁蒸馏(即用较弱模型在较强模型输出上训练)将意味着检测一个几乎不留痕迹的过程。即使切断对专有前沿系统的访问——正如一家领先的美国开发者今年对境外用户短暂所做的那样——也无法封住边界,因为能力通过开放权重和蒸馏在周围泄漏。芯片可以被计数和阻止。模型能力会扩散,而迄今设计的任何出口制度都无法阻止它们。因此,现实的结果并非封闭的边界,而是一种不对称的分离:在软件层保持多孔的情况下,硬件和基础设施层面出现真正的断裂。这是两种配置中最糟糕的组合。它使市场碎片化——两个芯片生态系统、两套标准、重复的基础设施——却无法实现任何一方所追求的安全,因为各方试图控制的能力无论如何都会跨越鸿沟泄漏。而且这种趋势正被双向推动:华盛顿将供应链联盟变成忠诚测试,北京则打造 WAICO 作为代表全球南方的常设机构,习近平关于“任何国家都不应主导”的呼吁本身就是一种领导力的表态。新加坡的教训 没有哪里比新加坡更清楚地体现这一代价,欧洲应密切关注。作为 Pax Silica 的创始成员,新加坡在五月份得到该联盟的设计者——即特朗普政府——的保证,加入并不意味必须在中美之间做出选择。到了八月份,新加坡政府发现自己收到了要求其做出选择的信函。现实是新加坡无法选择。禁止中国模型将掏空其自身经济——而且,考虑到软件层的多孔性,这样做甚至不会奏效。新加坡是一个值得信赖的伙伴,它发现签署后条件变了,而且所要求的选择在技术上也无法强制执行。欧洲处于同样的境地,但风险更大。其最近的主权立法——云与人工智能发展法案以及更广泛的六月 2026 技术包——是在美国和中国各自立场强硬之前构思的。事实上,欧洲立法恰恰是为了避免选择而构建的:一种战略自主的赌注,假设有回旋余地。然而同月,欧盟签署了 Pax Silica 宣言,将自己置于美国阵营。其法律寻求第三种选择;其签署已经……

但最终选择了美国路径。新加坡的经验在于,自主性与集团成员身份可以共存,直到有人迫使你做出选择。然而,欧洲与新加坡不同,因为欧洲在人工智能产业链的至少一个环节中不可或缺,即先进光刻技术,没有这项技术,任何一方都无法制造先进芯片。

亚洲主题洞察 3 这种杠杆效应只有在欧洲愿意将其作为欧盟层面的工具而非仅仅是荷兰的工具时才能持续,荷兰是ASML光刻机的所在地。目前,欧洲几乎是在免费将其杠杆让渡给美国。另一个风险是中国能够攻克先进光刻技术,从而使当前的瓶颈消失。那将只会加深人工智能硬件的分叉。

亚洲主题洞察 4 亚太区首席经济学家、CIB研究主管 Jean-François Robin Alicia Garcia Herrero +33 1 58 55 13 09 +852 3900 8680 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com 新兴亚洲 大中华区 日本、太平洋 Trinh Nguyen Jianwei Xu Kohei Iwahara +852 3900 8726 +852 3900 8034 +813 4519 2144 trinh.nguyen@natixis.com jianwei.xu@natixis.com kohei.iwahara@natixis.com 亚太、专题研究 Gary Ng Haoxin Mu +852 3915 1242 +852 3900 8067 gary.ng@natixis.com haoxin.mu@natixis.com Natixis CIB Research

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PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsoli cited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Fina ncial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • AI的分裂在整个技术栈中并不均匀;硬件可以被分割,而软件不能。
  • 开放权重模型(DeepSeek、Qwen、Kimi)在全球传播且无法撤回,使得出口管制对软件层无效。
  • 现实的结果是不对称分裂:在渗透性的软件层之下是碎片化的硬件/基础设施,这使市场碎片化却无法提供安全。
  • 新加坡体现了阵营成员身份的代价:尽管经济依赖中国模型,仍被迫选边站,且技术使选择无法强制执行。
  • 欧洲凭借先进光刻技术(ASML)握有筹码,但目前正将其拱手让出;若中国突破光刻技术,瓶颈消失,分裂将加深。
风险
  • 中国突破先进光刻技术,消除当前瓶颈并加深硬件分裂。
  • 不对称分裂使市场碎片化(两套芯片生态系统、两套标准、重复的基础设施)却无法提供安全。
  • 新加坡和欧洲等中立国面临越来越大的选边站压力,造成经济损失。
  • 欧洲通过ASML光刻机握有的筹码被无偿让给美国,错失对冲机会。