加拿大央行（BoC）将政策利率维持在2.25%不变，符合预期。开幕声明指出，中东冲突持续以及加拿大与美国贸易谈判破裂，使不确定性居高不下。
央行承认，加拿大经济在第二季度录得强于预期的增长，得益于稳健的国内需求和出口反弹。贸易不确定性重现将继续拖累商业和消费者信心，同时央行指出经济中仍存在持续供应过剩。
在通胀方面，央行表示，近几个月总体CPI通胀略有上升（约3%），反映出能源价格上涨的影响。不过，央行也认为，潜在价格压力总体受到抑制。央行确实指出，由于中东和平进展停滞以及美国新关税和加拿大反关税措施，“央行通胀预测的上行风险有所增加”。
管理委员会认为，鉴于经济面临的风险平衡，当前政策利率仍然合适。声明重申，货币政策已做好充分准备，若形势发生重大变化，“随时准备根据需要调整货币政策”。
金融市场将此次声明解读为略微偏鹰派。加拿大两年期国债收益率小幅上升几个基点（bps），而加元兑美元走强约0.3%。市场略微提高了年底前加息25个基点的概率（65%，而公告前为60%）。
今日声明对经济的评估不偏不倚。近期数据显示增长动能有所恢复，但政策制定者仍对重现的贸易紧张局势和可能迅速改变前景的持续地缘政治不确定性保持警惕。在缺乏最新货币政策报告（MPR）的情况下，加拿大央行下一次决议（10月28日）可能具有额外重要意义，因为这将是根据近期事态提供最新预测的首次机会。
目前，这将使加拿大央行处于一个舒适的观望状态。由于核心通胀压力总体仍受抑制，且关税相关风险对增长和通胀的影响方向相反，我们继续预计利率将维持不变至明年，同时央行将保留灵活性，以便在形势恶化或通胀比预期更顽固时采取行动。
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations. The opening statement noted that the continuing conflict in the Middle East as well as breakdown in trade talks between Canada and the U.S. have kept uncertainty elevated.
The Bank acknowledged that Canada's economy posted stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, supported by firm domestic demand and a rebound in exports. Renewed trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence, while the Bank pointed to ongoing excess supply in the economy.
On inflation, the Bank said that that headline CPI inflation has moved somewhat higher in recent months (around 3%), reflecting the impact of higher energy prices. However, it also argued that underlying price pressures remain broadly contained. The Bank did flag that "upside risks to the Bank's inflation forecast have increased" due to stalled progress in the Middle East and new U.S tariffs/Canadian counter-tariffs.
Governing Council judged that the current policy rate remains appropriate given the balance of risks facing the economy. The statement reiterates that monetary policy is well positioned to respond should conditions materially change "and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
Financial markets interpreted the statement as slightly hawkish. Canadian two-year bond yields edged by a few basis points (bps) higher, while the Loonie strengthened by about three-tenths against the USD. Markets modestly increased the odds of a 25-bps hike by year-end (65% vs 60% prior to the announcement).
Today's statement struck an even-handed assessment of the economy. Recent data suggest growth has regained some momentum, but policymakers remain wary of renewed trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that could alter the outlook quickly. Absent an updated MPR, the next BoC decision (October 28th) will likely carry added significance as the first opportunity to provide fresh forecasts in light of recent developments.
For now, that leaves the BoC in a comfortable holding pattern. With core inflation pressures still broadly contained and tariff-related risks pulling growth and inflation in opposite directions, we continue to expect rates to remain unchanged through next year, while the Bank preserves the flexibility should conditions deteriorate or inflation prove more persistent than anticipated.
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