捷克2025年预算草案将赤字占GDP比重扩大至3.5%，借款需求升至历史高位。发行量增加对捷克国债构成压力，尽管今年可能进行部分提前融资。公共部门工资增长加快以及财政政策宽松也增加了捷克央行自11月起加息的风险。
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完整中文译文
捷克2025年预算草案：赤字扩大施压债券，加息风险上升
财政部提议自2023以来最大赤字
财政部提议2025年国家预算赤字为CZK389bn，这意味着一般政府赤字占GDP的3.5%，高于今年的2.6%，为自2023以来最高。该草案仍需在9月底前获得政府批准，随后获得议会下院批准。两个初级联盟政党都敦促缩小赤字规模，因此可能会有一些修订，尽管我们预计不会有实质性变化。财政部将医疗、国防、提高生活水平和“高于平均水平”的经济增长列为优先事项。最大的支出增长用于国防以及工业和交通投资。与此同时，公共部门工资将上涨5-9%，细节将于9月公布。
大选后，新政府承诺将一般政府赤字控制在GDP的3%以下。通过援引国防支出例外条款，可以满足欧盟委员会报告的这一目标，该条款将报告的赤字降至GDP的2.8%。展望未来，预算草案预计从2028,开始进行财政整顿，赤字每年缩小0.5个百分点。
创纪录的借款需求令捷克国债承压，并引发更多换券操作
高于预期的赤字将伴随着创纪录的捷克国债到期赎回，金额为CZK278bn。根据我们的计算，这将使总借款需求从今年的CZK738.2bn升至2027,年的CZK881.9bn，同比增长19%，创历史新高，尽管占GDP比重仍远低于新冠疫情时期的水平。积极的一面是，财政部通过零售债券获得了新的融资渠道，随着借款需求上升，可能会更多地依赖这一渠道。
今年首次零售债券拍卖需求强劲，意味着今年的融资似乎已基本覆盖，这使财政部在全球条件允许时能够开始提前融资。我们预计今年剩余时间内将有更多针对2027期限的换券操作，以减少创纪录的到期规模。假设没有换券或预算变化，捷克国债总发行量将同比增长28%，净发行量增长19%。提前融资最终应会减少这些增幅，但预算草案显然对捷克国债市场构成负面影响。
扩张性预算增加了捷克央行的鹰派风险
预算草案对捷克央行8月份的预测构成挑战，并增加了鹰派风险。央行预计明年公共财政赤字将达到GDP的2.9%，比预算草案估计低0.6个百分点。
该提案还包括公共部门工资上涨5-9%，而政府上周批准了2027年最低工资上调11.2%、2028年上调8%。这使得捷克央行对5.7%工资增长的预测面临风险。央行董事会8月份将工资增长视为通胀上行风险，而政策制定者经常将扩张性财政政策列为另一个担忧。我们的基线预测仍是捷克央行短期内维持利率不变，但预算草案提高了11月或之后加息的可能性。
完整英文原文
The Czech 2027 draft budget widens the deficit to 3.5% of GDP and lifts borrowing needs to a record high. Higher issuance weighs on CZGBs, although some prefunding is likely this year. Faster public sector wage growth and looser fiscal policy also raise the risk of a CNB rate hike from November
MinFin proposes the highest deficit since 2023
The Ministry of Finance has proposed a 2027 state budget deficit of CZK389bn, implying a general government deficit of 3.5% of GDP, an increase from this year's 2.6% and the highest since 2023. The draft remains subject to government approval by end-September and subsequent approval by the lower house of parliament. Both junior coalition parties are pressing for a smaller shortfall, so some revisions are possible, although we do not expect material changes. The ministry lists healthcare, defence, higher living standards and “above-average” economic growth as priorities. The biggest spending increases are earmarked for defence and investment in industry and transport. But at the same time, public sector wages are set to rise by 5-9%, with details due in September.
After the election, the new government pledged to keep the general government deficit below 3% of GDP. It can meet this target for European Commission reporting by invoking the escape clause for defence spending, which lowers the reported deficit to 2.8% of GDP. Looking ahead, the draft budget projects fiscal consolidation from 2028, with the deficit narrowing by 0.5ppt each year.
Record borrowing needs put CZGBs under pressure and will trigger more switches
The larger-than-expected deficit will coincide with record Czech government bonds (CZGBs) redemptions of CZK278bn. By our calculations, this lifts gross borrowing needs from CZK738.2bn this year to CZK881.9bn in 2027, up 19% year-on-year to an all-time high, although they remain well below Covid-era levels as a share of GDP. On the positive side, the Ministry of Finance has gained a new funding source through retail bonds and is likely to rely on it more as borrowing needs rise.
Strong demand in the first retail bond auction this year means this year's financing already appears largely covered, giving MinFin scope to begin prefunding when global conditions allow. We expect more switches of 2027 maturities during the rest of the year to reduce record redemptions. Assuming no switches or budget changes, gross CZGB issuance would rise 28% year-on-year and net issuance 19%. Prefunding should ultimately reduce these increases, but the draft budget is clearly negative for the CZGB market.
Expansionary budget adds to CNB hawkish risks
The draft budget challenges the Czech National Bank's August forecast and adds to hawkish risks. The central bank expects the public finance deficit to reach 2.9% of GDP next year, 0.6ppt below the draft budget estimate.
The proposal also includes a 5-9% rise in public sector wages, while the government last week approved minimum wage increases of 11.2% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. This puts the CNB’s 5.7% wage-growth forecast at risk. The board identified wage growth as an upside inflation risk in August, while policymakers frequently cite expansionary fiscal policy as another concern. Our baseline remains for unchanged CNB rates in the near term, but the draft budget raises the likelihood of a hike in November or later.
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关键论点
- 2027年预算草案赤字为3890亿克朗，一般政府赤字占GDP的3.5%，高于今年的2.6%。
- 发行量增加和创纪录的赎回使得2027年总借贷需求达到8819亿克朗，同比上升19%，创历史新高。
- 预算草案包括5-9%的公共部门工资增长，对捷克央行的工资预测构成挑战，并增加了加息风险。
- 今年可能会进行部分提前融资，这可能减轻对捷克国债的影响。
- 从2028年开始预计财政整顿，赤字每年缩小0.5个百分点。
风险
- 预算草案需经政府批准，可能会发生变化，尽管预期不会有重大修改。
- 财政扩张可能导致通胀上升，迫使捷克央行提前加息。
- 尽管有提前融资，创纪录的赎回可能导致市场波动。
- 公共部门工资增长可能超出政府预测，恶化财政前景。