II 全球机构情报
法国外贸银行 · Bastien AILLET · 2026/09/01

取消公共债务:一个善意的错误

前往官网原文 ↗
研报原件
1 / 110%

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

营销通讯:本文件为营销演示文稿。它并非根据旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求编写;且不受投资研究传播前禁止交易的任何限制。1年9月2026日 欧洲、中东及非洲宏观速览 取消公共债务:一个善意的错误 在暑期学校期间,由让-吕克·梅朗雄领导的极左政党“不屈法国”的领导人提出了取消法国部分由欧洲央行/欧元体系持有的公共债务(尤其是与疫情相关的债务)的想法。随后,国民联盟主席乔丹·巴尔德拉与马蒂厄·皮加斯(一位尚未正式宣布的候选人(?),与左翼政党关系密切)之间发生了口角。前者称这一提议为“坏主意”,后者则嘲笑前者对经济学的理解。在本报告中,我们分析了这些提议,它们可能被视为一个善意的错误,因为它们可能带来的问题多于好处。我们认为,不屈法国的提议存在几个障碍,使其不切实际,且在制度上和财政上均无用处。首先,在没有修改《欧盟条约》的情况下,任何形式的公共债务重组都将受到欧元区伙伴的法律质疑。其次,在没有金融市场反应的情况下,潜在好处有限,因为这将迫使法兰西银行停止向法国政府分配任何利润。第三,如果市场出现反应(这极有可能),法国公共债券风险溢价的可能上升将意味着成本增加而非收益。总之,当前状况更为可取。事实上,法兰西银行持有的法国公共债券产生的利润会相应地分配给法国政府。 作者:Alain DURRE博士 电话:+33 1 58 55 60 49 alain.durre@natixis.com Jean-François ROBIN 电话:+33 1 58 55 13 09 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com Bastien AILLET 电话:+33 1 58 55 39 36 bastien.aillet@natixis.com 访问我们的网站了解更多

EMEA宏观快照 2 敢于想象不可思议之事

正如我们在之前的报告 1 中所阐述的,法国的财政状况对于公共赤字和公共债务而言都处于危急关头。预计今年和明年公共赤字将超过GDP的 5%,我们预测公共债务将持续增加,到 2028 年将达到GDP的约 118%。在公共债务预期机械性增长的背后,是所谓的“滚雪球效应”,因为当前名义GDP增长率(2025 年为 2.0%)仍低于法国政府的有效融资成本(1.9%)。这种脆弱的财政状况促使一些总统选举候选人(明年-2月18日)考虑利用欧元体系(特别是法兰西银行)持有的法国债务来减轻法国国家的财政负担。近期出现了三项提议。前两项提议包含在极左翼候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄(来自“不屈法国”党,LFI)的总统选举官方计划中。最后一项提议是一位与极左翼政党LFI关系密切的商人的建议。2

►提议 1:要求欧盟授权欧洲央行(ECB)将其持有的主权债务转换为永续零息债券。3

►提议 2:让欧洲央行绕过私人银行,直接在金融市场上购买公共债务,从而将政府融资从金融市场的控制中解脱出来。

►提议 3:一位与LFI党关系密切的左翼银行家马蒂厄·皮加斯建议直接取消欧洲央行(特别是法兰西银行)持有的法国公共债务部分。

所有提议都将面临法律挑战

欧元的引入是在两种对立愿景达成妥协后实现的。最初,以德国为首的一些国家认为,采用稳定的单一货币首先需要财政/政治联盟,而他们认为这既不可取也不可行。相比之下,以法国为首的其他国家则认为,在没有政治联盟的情况下,只要满足某些条件,稳定的单一货币是可能的。这些国家认为更深层次的财政一体化既可取又可实现。因此,他们对单一货币充满热情:它代表了一种“强制机制”,推动更深层次的经济和政治一体化,超越经济和货币联盟,从而为更加联邦化的欧洲铺平道路。

因此,通过在欧洲联盟运作条约(TFEU)中采纳若干强有力的法律条款达成了妥协,以1

参见Camatte, H.和Bartoletti, T.(2026),“法国仍是欧元区公共支出亚军”,EMEA宏观洞察:28年8月。2

一些经济学家,也与LFI党关系密切,还建议迫使欧洲央行重启其量化宽松计划,同时迫使法国银行持有最低水平的公共债券。虽然超出本报告范围,但前一项建议将违反央行独立性,而后一项建议在没有国家对银行的控制和/或监管强制执行的情况下似乎难以设想。3

参见LFI总统选举官方计划 https://melenchon2027.fr/programme2025/livre/chapitre6/s4/。

欧洲、中东和非洲宏观速览 3在缺乏财政联盟的情况下确保单一货币的稳定。具体包括:► 设立欧洲中央银行(ECB),执行单一的货币政策目标,即价格稳定(《欧洲联盟运行条约》第127条和第282条)。► 禁止货币融资(《欧洲联盟运行条约》第123条),以确保货币主导地位并维护中央银行资产负债表的完整性。► 禁止特权准入(《欧洲联盟运行条约》第124条),要求在欧元体系(即欧洲中央银行和各国家中央银行)与私营和公共部门的关系中一视同仁。► 中央银行的独立性(《欧洲联盟运行条约》第130条),禁止中央银行及其决策机构寻求或接受欧盟机构、机关、办公室或机构的指示,或接受任何成员国政府或其他公共机构的指示。4上述建议1-3将违反上述条约规定,因为以偏离市场条件的利率为部分或全部国家公共债务再融资将构成货币融资和特权准入,同时影响中央银行独立性。同样,取消欧元体系持有的部分法国公共债务将至少违反这四项条约规定,因为:(a) 降低一个国家公共债务水平类似于直接为国家融资(正如以偏离市场条件的利率为国家融资);(b) 这将降低中央银行的财务(及机构,若服从政府指示)独立性;(c) 取消欧元体系持有的公共债务而非私人债务将有违特权准入禁令;(d) 一种对公共赤字进行永久融资的做法不可避免地会产生通胀压力(并且不符合价格稳定的目标)。事实上,鉴于当前的条约规定和欧洲中央银行章程,所有建议都是非法的。因此,强制实施这些建议的唯一途径是修改条约中的法律条款,这似乎既不可取也不可行(考虑到各国为启动欧元所做的历史性妥协),或引发政治乃至金融冲突。同时,欧洲中央银行没有理由决定仅对法国等单一国家采取行动,而不对所有欧元区国家采取行动,这将严重削弱欧元体系的财务稳健性,从而使此类建议的可能性消失。4该条约条款还强调,欧盟机构、机关、办公室或机构以及各成员国政府承诺尊重这一原则,并且不寻求影响欧洲中央银行或国家中央银行决策机构成员履行职责。

EMEA宏观快照 4 引入‘钦定溢价’的风险 除了法律挑战之外,这样的决定——无论是通过政府压力还是欧洲央行的有意决策(并非我们的基准情景,因为这极不可能)——仍将给整个欧元区体系带来重大的道德风险。事实上,质疑公共债务的偿还(部分或全部)可能被市场视为对法国退出欧元区的隐性威胁。我们认为,至少存在四个渠道,通过这些渠道,取消欧洲体系中央银行持有的法国公共债务可能增加可交易法国公共债券的风险溢价,但不仅限于此。► 首先,这将导致市场对法国偿还其余流通中公共债券承诺的极大不确定性。► 其次,法国不遵守欧元区及其货币政策的关键创始原则,可能导致市场质疑法国未来对欧元的参与(意味着(法国退出欧元区)重新计价风险的再次出现)。► 第三,欧洲央行通过法兰西银行资产负债表遭受的损失将事实上减少财务准备金和/或央行股本,这可能削弱欧元汇率,从而增加通胀溢价。5 ► 第四,取消央行资产负债表上持有的法国债务将削弱市场对欧元区整体框架稳定性的信心。在财政规则可信度已经严重受损的情况下,这样的决定将挑战单一货币背后的根本理由。这将引发对欧洲央行货币政策可能屈从于未来财政挥霍的担忧。这可能导致资金逃向优质资产,对所有欧元计价金融资产产生不利影响,并因欧元贬值而推高通胀溢价。回顾欧元区的原罪——最初欧元派与疑欧派之间的深刻分歧——取消部分法国主权债务将引发成员国之间的严重政治冲突。这样的冲突最终将威胁到经济与货币联盟的设计本身。5 欧洲央行管理委员会在金融危机初期就批准了这一理由(这被视为TFEU的附件)。

EMEA宏观速览 5 一个虚幻的经济 在非常不可能(因为不现实)的情况下,上述提议之一会被欧洲伙伴同意(不是我们的基线情景),在没有市场反应(同样不可能)的情况下,这类操作的潜在好处将非常有限。如果其中一项操作增加了法国公共债券的风险溢价(很可能),这将给法国政府带来额外成本,同时具有通胀效应。 存量故事 一个明显的首要问题是,这三项提议各自会影响的债务规模。2024年7月,欧元体系因货币政策计划持有的法国债务为€600亿欧元(图表1)。其中,近80%由法兰西银行持有,金额为€494亿欧元(或法国马斯特里赫特债务的14%)6。这一总额在欧元体系下分为PSPP下的€360亿欧元和PEPP下的€239亿欧元。因此,在提议1和3,下,涉及的债务存量接近欧元体系内的€600亿欧元7。提议2,则针对私人部门持有的全部债务。根据提议的范围,数字可能差异很大。例如,是仅包括债务证券,还是也包括贷款?是仅关注中央政府债务,还是也包括地方政府和社会保障计划?为简化起见,我们仅聚焦于法国国库署管理的债务,即法国国家债务证券的债务管理办公室。截至7月31日,法国国库署管理的未偿金额为€2,882亿欧元,约占法国马斯特里赫特债务的80%(8)。其中,47.5%由国内投资者持有,其余由非国内投资者持有。分析欧洲央行的SHSS数据库可以更清晰地了解可能受此提议影响的市场参与者(图表2)。总体而言,这一提议将涉及接近€2,250亿欧元的债务。6 目前没有法兰西银行在2024年7月货币政策下持有债务的官方数据。然而,在2025,底,法兰西银行持有欧元体系总额€663亿欧元中的€545亿欧元,占比82.3%。我们假设这一份额在2024年7月保持不变。2025 参见法兰西银行年度报告。7 到5月2027,选举结束时,这一数字会有所减少;然而,在本分析余下部分,我们将坚持使用7月2026的数据。8 参见法国国库署。3月底,未偿总额为€2,804亿欧元,而马斯特里赫特债务为€3,536亿欧元,占比79.2%。

EMEA宏观速览 6 图表 1:PSPP和PEPP项目下法国债券持有量(十亿欧元) 图表 2:1-26年第四季度法国证券按持有者类型分布(十亿欧元) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 PSPP PEPP 欧元体系 私人持有 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 欧元体系 外国投资者 国内银行 国内保险公司与养老基金 其他欧元区银行 其他欧元区保险公司与养老基金 其他欧元区投资者 来源:欧洲央行,Natixis CIB研究 资料来源:欧洲央行SHSS数据库,Natixis CIB研究 注:I&PF指保险公司和养老基金 一个流动性的故事 在解决了所涉及的债务存量问题之后,我们现在转而讨论上述提议将为政府带来的潜在好处。这些好处将主要表现为其偿债成本的降低,与不进行欧洲央行干预的情景(即需要以 3.7% 收益率 9 进行债务再融资)相比,三项提议的金额和动态将有所不同。对于第一和第二项提议,我们假设欧洲央行等待证券到期,然后使用零息债券 10 进行再融资。这些年度再融资金额在第一项提议中为€94亿欧元 11,在第二项提议中介于€90亿欧元和€150亿欧元之间。根据第一项提议,欧元体系持有的债务每年可节省利息€3.5亿欧元,其中PSPP投资组合为€2.2亿欧元,PEPP投资组合为€1.3亿欧元。假设干预从2027,年开始,一旦投资组合在2033年完全再融资,政府将节省€21.6亿欧元的利息支出(图表 3)。 9 我们在此复现了之前报告中提出的“市场前瞻 -100bp”情景假设。“法国公共债务不断上升:账单到期” 10 换言之,政府不会在债务上违约,无论是利息支付还是本金偿还。 11 由于欧元体系持有的法国债务的加权平均期限为6.4年,我们假设总债务的1/6.4(约16%)每年进行再融资,整个投资组合在6.4年内完成再融资。这意味着每年再融资€94亿欧元。

EMEA宏观快照 7 图表 3:不同提议下法国政府债务成本累计变动,对比欧洲央行不干预情景(十亿欧元) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 提议 1 提议 2 提议 3 资料来源:法国国库署,欧洲央行,法国央行,Natixis企业与投资银行研究部 预计第二项提议在 2033 年将累计节省近 €30 亿欧元,即每年节省利息 €4.2 亿欧元。最后,第三项提议节省的金额与第一项相同。然而,年度利息节省的动态会略有不同。对欧元体系持有的债务进行纾困将立即免除政府的利息支付义务。具体而言,这些利息支出在法国央行层面 2025 年为 €5.6 亿欧元,2024 年为 €5.7 亿欧元(12),年收益率约为 0.7%。将该收益率外推至 2026 年 7 月整个欧元体系投资组合,政府将立即节省 €4.2 亿欧元,而根据第一项提议,这笔 €4.2 亿欧元的节省只能逐步实现。综合来看,提议 1 和 2 可使政府到 2030, 年节省高达 €30.6 亿欧元,到 2033, 年节省 €51 亿欧元,假设干预从 2027 年开始。 从理论到实践 我们上面讨论的潜在节省仅是理论上的,因为它们假设在提议 1 和 3 下金融市场没有反应。然而,现实可能大不相同。因为这没有考虑到:1)法国政府因法国央行潜在股息分配而损失的收入,以及 2)投资者对在金融市场上交易的剩余债务所要求的风险溢价上升。关于后者,风险溢价的上升将同时影响未来赤字和即将到来的大量债务再融资 13。假设未来赤字保持在 €150 亿欧元至 €160 亿欧元之间,风险溢价上升 100bp 将增加 €1.5 亿欧元至 €1.6 亿欧元的利息支出。这一额外成本已远高于仅第一项提议下 PEPP 投资组合所能产生的节省。当考虑到到期债务的再融资时,这一额外成本 12 法国央行年报 2025。13 应当指出,提议 2 假设未来赤字将由欧洲央行/法国央行融资,而其他两项提议不一定如此。为避免市场要求的风险溢价,后两项提议假设法国政府预算平衡。

EMEA宏观速览 8 根据上述提案1,每年的成本将在€2亿欧元至€3亿欧元之间。将累计的年度额外成本与年度节省相抵,在法国债务风险溢价上升100bp个基点的情景下,一旦整个投资组合完全再融资,将在2033年实现债务成本总体节省€5.4(图4)。图4:不同风险溢价上升幅度下,提案1与欧洲央行不干预情景相比的累计利息支付差异(十亿欧元) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 50bp 100bp 150bp 资料来源:法国国库署、欧洲央行、法兰西银行、Natixis企业与投资银行研究部 这一预测显然对市场所反映的风险溢价上升高度敏感。若风险溢价上升幅度仅限于50bp个基点,对PSPP和PEPP进行再融资将为政府带来€14.9亿欧元的净收益;然而,若溢价达到150bp个基点,则将产生€4亿欧元的额外成本。正如我们所看到的,实际收益高度不确定,几乎完全取决于市场对该决定的反应,且潜在收益最终相当有限,尤其是在欧洲央行投资组合完全再融资后风险溢价仍将存在的情况下。我们了解下限,但不知上限。这值得冒险吗? 14 同样的测算可应用于提案3,,但不适用于提案2,,因为欧洲央行对到期债务进行全额再融资。

EMEA宏观速览 9 理解欧洲央行资产负债表的动态。根据条约条款和欧洲央行章程,中央银行的财务报表在考虑向政府分配利润(如有)之前,必须先经过审计。为了增强欧元体系的财务稳健性,实施了两项会计规则。首先,欧元体系的中央银行(包括欧洲央行15)需要在其财务报表中计提法定准备金,并在预期损失实现时可能计提额外准备金。16 其次,在损益计算中,欧洲央行和各国央行必须计入已实现损益以及潜在损失(而非潜在利润)。一旦各央行完成并审计其账目,各项损益将并入欧洲央行的合并资产负债表。因此有两点值得注意。首先,欧洲央行管理委员会内部很可能没有多数同意为法国资产进行单方面操作。主要原因是,允许此类操作会引发其他高负债国家的类似要求。17 其次,鉴于欧元体系应用的会计规则,上述任何提议(构成潜在损失)将在相当长的时间内阻止法国政府获得利润分配。鉴于这些会计特殊性,上述提议的潜在损失将迫使法国央行停止向法国政府转移股息(在正常条件下,自2008年以来,该股息每年达到1.5亿欧元至3亿欧元)。在最坏的情况下,这些提议的累计损失最终可能迫使法国政府随时间对法国央行进行资本重组。18 这不值得麻烦。政治光谱左翼提出的重组法国公共债务的提议将在多个层面造成问题。除了法律挑战,潜在的市场强烈反应将对法国政府造成高昂代价。此外,鉴于欧元体系现行的会计规则,这将剥夺国家从央行获得的股息。还有公共赤字融资的问题。如果法国公共债务重组是一次性操作,法国政府将不得不避免未来进一步的公共赤字,因为市场不太可能在没有额外风险溢价的情况下继续购买新发行的法国公共债券。如果任何新的公共赤字由欧洲央行/法国央行永久融资,这将引发通胀压力。总之,这带来的麻烦多于其价值。而且,若不修改欧洲条约,任何行动都不可能实现,而修改条约的可能性很小。法国政府若试图说服欧洲伙伴接受这些想法,将引发金融市场中法国公共债券价格的剧烈波动,因为这肯定会与财政纪律严格的国家产生巨大紧张关系。15 仅欧洲央行产生的利润通常重新分配给其股东,即各国央行。16 例如,荷兰央行(DNB)在金融危机期间单方面决定停止向荷兰政府分配利润,理由是预期损失。

来自当时的证券市场组合(SMP)。17 过去,像意大利央行这样资金充裕的NCB曾多次面临各国政府试图获取其资金的情况,但NCB依据条约规定坚决抵制。18 在2007-2012金融危机初期,欧洲央行管理委员会认可了这样一种逻辑:若NCBs/ECB出现负资产,成员国需根据央行独立性原则对其进行资本重组。请注意,管理委员会的所有决定均构成欧洲条约的附件。

EMEA宏观快照 10 企业与投资银行研究主管 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE +33 1 58 55 13 09 +33 1 58 55 99 93 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 金融机构研究 Alain DURRE, Ph.D. Bouchra RHAJBAL +33 1 58 55 60 49 +33 1 58 55 79 93 alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 德国、欧元区 担保债券 Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY +33 1 58 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 1 58 55 05 81 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com 西班牙、意大利、希腊、葡萄牙、欧元区 通胀、宏观建模、欧元区 Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA +33 1 58 55 99 90 +33 1 58 55 62 71 jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com CEMEA 英国、北欧、房地产 Inna MUFTEEVA, CFA Sylwia HUBAR, Ph.D. +33 1 58 55 52 04 +33 1 58 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 助理经济学家 Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com 数据库 Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON +33 1 58 55 14 76 +33 1 58 55 99 92 +33 1 58 55 12 65 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com Andriat RAKOTOVAO +33 1 58 55 14 92 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao@natixis.com

机构免责声明
EMEA M ACRO S NAPSHOT research.natixis.com In compliance with Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) that came into force on 3 July 2016, please find relevant information regarding investment recommendations. As a staff member of Natixis, the producer of the document is considered as the author of an investment recommendation as defined by MAR. Policy for managing conflicts of interest: https://natixis.groupebpce.com/wp- content/uploads/2022/11/summary_policy_management_of_conflicts_of_interest s_eng_220826.pdf Information about potential conflicts of interest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation This document is a communication for discussion and information purposes only and is exclusively intended for and may only be transmitted to eligible counterparties, professional clients and qualified investors, as such terms (or their equivalents) are understood and applied under all relevant laws and regulations applicable to you and us, for purposes of this communication. This document is not intended for retail client use. It is not for further distribution or distribution to retail clients. It should not be reproduced (in whole or in part), forwarded, transmitted, or summarized to any person other than the original addressee(s) without the prior written consent of Natixis. This communication is highly confidential and is the property of Natixis. If you are not the intended recipient of this document and/or any related attachments, or if you do not agree to or cannot comply fully with the requirements and terms of the disclaimers which follow, please delete it (and/or them) and immediately notify the sender. This document does not constitute a personalized recommendation. It is intended for general information and the products or services described herein do not take into account any specific investment objective, financial situation or particular need of any recipient. Natixis does not provide any advice herein, including in particular in case of investment services. Under no circumstances should this document be considered as an official confirmation of a transaction to any person or entity. The distribution, possession or delivery of this document in, to or from certain jurisdictions may be restricted or prohibited by law. Recipients of this document are therefore required to ensure that they are aware of, and comply with, such restrictions or prohibitions. Neither Natixis, nor any of its affiliates, directors, employees, agents or advisers nor any other person may be deemed liable to anyone in relation to the distribution, possession or delivery of this document in, to or from any jurisdiction. Further, it is important to note that not all of the products, services and information are available in all jurisdictions. The information does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, derivative, investment fund or other product, service or information to anyone in any jurisdiction in which an offer or solicitation is not authorized or cannot legally be made or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make an offer or solicitation. For information concerning any specific jurisdiction, please contact your local sales representative. In addition, this material is not intended to provide specific financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice for you in any jurisdiction, and should not be relied upon in that regard. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of a professional in the relevant jurisdiction. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable or appropriate for all investors or in all geographical areas. Every state in the US, and most countries throughout the world, have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the products and services discussed in this material may not be eligible for sale or otherwise in some jurisdictions. This material is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer or otherwise in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer or otherwise in that jurisdiction. Any guarantee, funding, interest or currency swap, underwriting or more generally any undertaking (if mentioned in this document) should be treated as preliminary only and is subject to a formal approval and written confirmation in accordance with Natixis’ current internal procedures. Natixis has neither verified nor conducted an independent analysis of the information contained in this document. Therefore, Natixis makes no statement or warranty and makes no commitment to the recipients of this document in any way (express or implied) as to its relevance, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained therein or the appropriateness of the assumptions to which it refers. Indeed, the information contained herein does not take into account the specific accounting or tax rules that would apply to Natixis' counterparties, customers or potential customers. Natixis cannot therefore be held liable for any differences in valuation between its own data and that of third parties, these differences being due in particular to considerations on the application of accounting rules, tax or valuation models. The statements, assumptions and opinions contained in this document may be changed or may be withdrawn by Natixis at any time without notice. Natixis shall not be liable for any financial loss, damages, or any decision taken on the basis of the information contained in this document and Natixis does not hold itself out as providing any advice, particularly in relation to investment services. In any event, you should independently retain any internal and/or external advice that you consider necessary or desirable to obtain, including any financial, legal, tax or accounting advice, or any other specialist advice, in order to verify in particular that the investment(s), transaction(s), structure(s) or arrangement(s) described in this document meets your investment or financial objectives and constraints, and to obtain an independent valuation of such investment(s)/transaction(s), its risks factors and rewards. It should not be assumed that the information contained in this document will have been updated subsequent to the date stated on the front page of this document. In addition, the delivery of this document does not imply in any way an obligation on anyone to update the information contained herein at any time. Prices and margins are deemed to be indicative only and are subject to change at any time depending on, inter alia, market conditions. Past performances and simulations of past performances are not a reliable indicator and therefore do not anticipate future results . The information contained in this document may include results of analyses from a quantitative model, which represent potential future events, that may or may not be realized, and is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any product. Information may be changed or may be withdrawn by Natixis at any time without notice. Natixis makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accomplishment of or reasonableness of, nor should any reliance be placed on any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts, or on the statements, assumptions and opinions expressed in this document. Nothing in this document should be relied on as a promise or guarantee as to the future. Natixis may have conflicts of interest: Natixis may from time to time, as principal or agent, be involved in a wide range of activities globally, have positions in, or may buy or sell, or make a market in any securities, currencies, financial instruments or other assets underlying the instruments to which the Information relates, including possibly a position that was accumulated on the basis of this analysis material prior to its dissemination. Trading desks may also have or take positions inconsistent with this material. Natixis activities related to those instruments may have an impact on the price of the relevant underlying asset and may give rise to conflicting interests or duties. Natixis may provide services to any member of the same group as the recipient of the information or any other entity or person (a Third Party), engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the recipient of the information or a Third Party, or act in relation to any matter for itself or any Third Party, notwithstanding that such services, transactions or actions may be adverse to the recipient of the information or any member of its group, and Natixis may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit. In addition, Natixis may, whether by virtue of the types of relationships described in this paragraph or otherwise, from time to time be in possession of information in relation to a particular instrument that is or may be material in the context of that instrument and that may or may not be publicly available or known to you. Our providing you with an indicative price quotation or other information with respect to any such instrument does not create any obligation on the part of Natixis to disclose to you any such information (whether or not confidential). Natixis reserves the right to record, exchange, analyse and use relevant information about you and your relationships with any affiliates of Natixis (including the nature of your transactions) for combating money laundering and terrorists financing as well as for credit assessment, market research, insurance and administrative purposes including back-office management. This may include information provided by you, or someone acting on your behalf. Relevant information may also be exchanged with members of the Natixis group and others, for audit or compliance purposes and if required by appropriate governmental and non-governmental regulators as well as in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. No part of author compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The personal views of authors may differ from one another. Natixis, its subsidiaries and affiliates may have issued or may issue reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. The stocks/companies mentioned might be subject to specific disclaimers. Please click on the following link to consult them: https://www.research.natixis.com/Site/en/disclaimers/3 . France: Natixis is supervised by the European Central bank (ECB). Natixis is authorized in France by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Régulation (ACPR) as a Bank-Investment Services Provider and subject to its supervision. Natixis is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in respect of its investment services activities. This material is not, and is not intended to be, a “research report”, “investment research” or “independent research” as may be defined in applicable laws and regulations worldwide. However, it may constitute “research” as defined in Recital 28 of the Commission Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 and in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook. EU : In compliance with Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), please find relevant information regarding investment recommendations. If this material is an investment recommendation as that term is defined in Article 3(1)(35) of the EU and UK MAR, distribution of this material is subject to the relevant provisions of MAR. Policy for managing conflicts of interest: Summary-Policy-management-of- conflicts-of-interests_ENG_20241212.pdf Information about potential conflicts of interest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation. USA : Natixis, a foreign bank and broker-dealer, makes this report available solely for distribution in the United States to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. securities Exchange Act of 1934. This document shall not be distributed to any other persons in the United States. All major U.S. institutional investors receiving this document shall not distribute the original nor a copy thereof to any other person in the United States. Natixis is a National Futures Association (NFA) member in the United States and has filed its Swap Dealer registration per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulations, and is registered as a Security-Based Swap Dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Please refer to the Natixis website and applicable final legal documentation relating to the relevant product for additional risk disclosures. Investors are exposed to the default risk of the issuer and/or the guarantor as applicable. For any swap products, please also refer to Dodd-Frank Act - Compliance – Natixis https://www.natixis.com/natixis/en/dodd-frank-act-rpaz5_115246.html. Structured securities, options, futures and other derivatives are complex instruments and may involve a high degree of risk. Before entering into any such transactions, please ensure that you have read and understood the Options Clearing Corporation’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) available at: http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp . THIS COMMUNICATION IS NOT A “RESEARCH REPORT” AS DEFINED IN CFTC REGULATIONS 1.71 and 23.605 AND IS TO BE DISTRIBUTED ONLY TO INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS. THIS COMMUNICATION HAS BEEN GENERATED BY ONE OR MORE EMPLOYEES OF NATIXIS AND IS BEING CONVEYED TO YOU EITHER (I) COMMENTARY ON ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, OR MARKET CONDITIONS AND STATISTICAL SUMMARIES OF MULTIPLE COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL DATA, WHICH MAY INCLUDE LISTS OF CURRENT RATINGS, AND ON THE BASIS OF WHICH NO INVESTMENT DECISION SHOULD BE MADE AS THIS MATERIAL IS CONDENSED, NOT COMPREHENSIVE, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE ALL RISK FACTORS OR OTHER MATTERS THAT MAY BE MATERIAL, OR (II) A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION, BUT IS NOT A BINDING OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AS OF THE DATE OF THIS COMMUNICATION AND ARE NOT TO BE RELIED ON AS AUTHORITATIVE, AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF NATIXIS OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES OR SUBSIDIARIES, OR THEIR RESPECTIVE OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, CONTRACTORS, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES, SUCCESSORS AND ASSIGNS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ANY VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN MAY NOT BE OBJECTIVE OR INDEPENDENT OF THE AUTHOR OR OTHER NATIXIS (AND ITS AFFILIATES) SALES AND TRADING DESKS, WHO ARE ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS IN THE MARKETS, INVESTMENTS, OR STRATEGIES REFERRED TO IN THIS COMMUNICATION. THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS COMMUNICATION IS BASED ON PUBLIC INFORMATION AND SHALL NOT BE USED NOR CONSIDERED AS AN UNDERTAKING FROM NATIXIS. NATIXIS TAKES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS OF THE COMMUNICATION. NEITHER THE AUTHORS NOR NATIXIS HAVE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR OTHERWISE NOTIFY THE RECIPIENT IN THE EVENT ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING ANY OPINION OR VIEW, CHANGES OR BECOMES INACCURATE. NATIXIS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY FINANCIAL LOSS, DAMAGES, OR ANY DECISION TAKEN ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION DISCLOSED IN THIS COMMUNICATION AND NATIXIS DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY ADVICE, INCLUDING IN CASE OF INVESTMENT SERVICES. THIS COMMUNICATION IS COMMUNICATED TO EACH RECIPIENT FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document does not constitute a financial analysis or research report and has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Accordingly, there are no prohibitions on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Opinions expressed may differ from the opinions expressed by other business units of Natixis. Natixis and each of its respective affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this material or reliance on the information contained herein. However, this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not lawfully be disclaimed. No representation or assurance is provided by Natixis with respect to whether any product or financial instrument referenced in this document meets requirements or criteria established under any regulatory, industry or other rules and standards related to climate, sustainability or environmental matters. Canada : In Canada, this document may only be transmitted to “permitted clients” as defined in National Instrument 31-103. No further distribution is permitted. Distribution to retail investors is prohibited. In Canada, Natixis operates through Natixis Canada Branch, a Foreign Bank Branch (Schedule 3 – Lending only). Natixis Securities Americas LLC is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province but operates under the International Dealer Exemption in each province. Natixis S.A. is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province and operates under the International Dealer Exemption in Quebec and Ontario. Any securities transaction or other offer, sale, or solicitation will be structured to be in compliance with such exemption. Mexico : As per your request, this information is delivered to you, which strictly pertains to activities performed by Natixis, a Foreign Financial Entity in its country of origin, such institution is herein represented by its Representation Office in Mexico. This information is being delivered to you for information purposes only. Please note that the Representation Office in Mexico is prevented from negotiating, executing, or participating in (i) operations related to listed derivatives; and (ii) securing funds from the general public in Mexico. Brazil: This communication and the matters discussed therein have not been and will not be issued, placed, distributed or offered in the Brazilian market. Documents relating to this communication, as well as information contained therein may not be supplied to the public in Brazil nor be used in connection with any offer for subscription or sale of financial products or services to the public in Brazil. This communication will not be offered in Brazil, except in circumstances which do not constitute any breach or noncompliance with the Brazilian applicable legislation. Persons wishing to acquire or invest in any debt or equity interest in Brazil should consult with their own counsel as to the applicability of registration requirements or any exemption therefrom. This material is only intended for persons who are eligible investors residing in Brazil, which are considered to be Professional Investors (Investidores Profissionais), as designated by the applicable regulation, mainly the CVM Resolution No. 30 from the 11th of May 2021. Argentina : Products/services included in the presentation have not been and will not be publicly issued, placed, distributed, offered, or registered in Argentine Securities Commission (Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV). Neither this nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any general offering to the public within Argentina. Any Argentine resident who acquires any products or services will do so under his/her own responsibility under the terms of a private offering to him/her, from outside of Argentina. Panama : This document and its content are for information purposes and shall not be interpreted as banking or financial intermediation, business solicitation and/or public offering of any kind. Natixis is duly authorized by the relevant authorities to carry out banking activities in the United States. Any and all services provided by Natixis are provided on a cross border basis outside of Panama. Natixis is not authorized by the Superintendence of Banks nor the Superintendence of the Securities Market to carry out any activities in Panama.The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice or credit analysis with respect to the material presented, and the information and/or documents contained in this material do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to offer. EMEA M ACRO S NAPSHOT research.natixis.com Peru : The products or information discussed here have not been registered under the Peruvian Securities Market Law (Supreme Decree N° 093-2002-EF) or before the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV). There will be no public offering of the shares in Peru. The SMV has not reviewed the information provided to the investor. This material is only for the exclusive use of institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution. Colombia : By receiving this document you confirm that you have requested us to provide you this document and information on the matters described in it. You also confirm that your interest in requesting such documents and information arose out of your own private interest and was not the result of any direct or indirect solicitation, promotion or offering of services or products by Natixis or by any of its representatives. Accordingly, the information contained in this document is not intended and should not be construed as constituting onshore promotion, marketing or solicitation of securities-market services or products. The distribution of the information contained in this document is restricted by law and persons who access it are required to comply with all such restrictions. The information is not intended to be published or made available to any person in any jurisdiction where doing so would contravene any applicable laws or regulations. By receiving this document, you confirm that you are aware of the laws in Colombia relating to the promotion and marketing of financial services products and you warrant and represent that you will not pass on or utilise the information contained in this document in a manner that could constitute a breach of such laws by Natixis, its affiliates or any other person. Any securities mentioned in this document have not been and will not be registered with the National Register of Securities ("Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores") maintained by the Colombian Financial Superintendency ("Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia") and may not be publicly offered or sold in Colombia. This information does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to enter into any agreement, or to purchase or subscribe any securities. The information on the following pages is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice or any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any of the funds or securities mentioned. Prospective investors should take appropriate professional advice before making any investment decision. Bolivia : Natixis is not authorized to conduct in Bolivia activities reserved by law for financial intermediation entities and/or brokerage firms. The products/services offered will be provided from Natixis's offices outside of Bolivia. Chile : This communication and any accompanying information (the "Materials") are intended solely for informational purposes and do not constitute (and should not be interpreted to constitute) the selling, or conducting of business with respect to such products or services in Chile (this "Jurisdiction"), or the conducting of any brokerage, banking or other similarly regulated activities in this Jurisdiction. Natixis ("Bank") is not registered (or intended to be registered) in this Jurisdiction. The Materials are private, confidential and are sent by the Bank only for the exclusive use of the addressee. The Materials must not be publicly distributed and any use of the Materials by anyone other than the addressee is not authorized. The addressee is required to comply with all applicable laws in this Jurisdiction, including, without limitation, tax laws and exchange control regulations, if any. The services do not include the offer or intermediation of any securities. Additionally, the Bank will not be liable for investment decisions made by the client based on the information derived or obtain from the Bank's materials. UK : In the UK, Natixis SA is authorised by L'Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Germany : Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland is subject to a limited form of regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) with regards to the conduct of its business in Germany under the right of establishment there. The transfer / distribution of this document in Germany is performed by / under the responsibility of Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland. Spain: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Spain and the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Spain. Italy: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Italy and the CONSOB (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Italy. Japan: Natixis Tokyo Branch is authorized in Japan by the Financial Service Agency as a Bank. Natixis Japan Securities Co., Ltd. (NJS) is a Financial Instruments Business Operator (Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 2527 and a Money Lender (Tokyo Governor (4) No. 31548), supervised by the Financial Services Agency. NJS is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. This document is intended solely for distribution to Professional Investors as defined in Article 2.31 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Hong Kong: In Hong Kong, Natixis is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the “SFC”) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) and Type 6 (advising on Corporate Finance) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (“SFO”). This document has not been approved by the SFC nor has a copy of this document been registered by the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, unless specified otherwise. The investments contained herein may or may not be authorised by the SFC. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the investments contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. The investments may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong, by means of any document, other than (i) to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO, or (ii) in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32 of the Laws of Hong Kong)(the “C(WUMP)O”) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the C(WUMP)O. No person shall issue or possess for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the investments, which to his knowledge is or contains an invitation to the public of Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the applicable laws and rules of Hong Kong) other than with respect to investments which are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong or only to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO. This document is not and should not be construed as Natixis (or any affiliate or anyone else) offering or holding itself out as being willing or able to provide any service or to carry on any activity which it is not licensed to provide or carry on in Hong Kong. Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: Natixis Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. If this document is distributed in Singapore, this document is intended solely for distribution to Institutional Investors, Accredited Investors and Expert Investors as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. People’s Republic of China: In Mainland China, Natixis Shanghai branch and Natixis Beijing branch are regulated in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”, which, for such purposes, does not include the Hong Kong or Macau Specifical Administrative Regions or Taiwan) by National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the engagement of banking business. This document is intended solely for distribution to investors of the PRC who are qualified/authorized under the laws of the People’s Republic of China to engage in the purchase of Product of the type being offered or sold. PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsolicited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Financial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 所有提议都将违反TFEU的关键条款(第123、124、127、130条),未经条约修改即属非法。
  • 市场反应很可能推高法国债券的风险溢价,其成本将超过任何节省。
  • 取消债务将迫使法国银行停止利润分配,每年损失15亿至30亿欧元。
  • 这些提议将引发道德风险,并可能破坏欧元区的稳定。
风险
  • 未经条约修改,欧元区伙伴将提出法律挑战。
  • 市场反应:法国债券风险溢价上升,增加成本。
  • 失去法国银行向法国政府转移的股息。
  • 道德风险和对欧元区稳定的威胁。