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法国外贸银行 · John BRIGGS · 2026/09/01

Natixis美国利率技术图表手册 - 2026年9月1日

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Natixis美国利率技术图表手册 1 九月 2026 约翰·布里格斯 美国利率策略主管 john.briggs@natixis.com

本周图表 – 10年期德国国债收益率月线图 2 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 月线图显示,在收盘突破3.00%后,德国国债走势相当负面。~3.40%是首个回撤扩展目标,从更长期视角看,4%并非不可想象。

美国2年期收益率 支撑位: (1) 4.368%: 近期收益率高点 (2) 4.42%; 一月份旧高收益率 2025(未显示)(3) 4.535%: 50%回撤,对应2023收益率高点和2026收益率低点 3 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 从技术面看,很难找到反对自四月以来日线图上存在的上升通道的理由。2s超卖并触及七月份收益率高点4.368%——这是重要的分水岭。 阻力位: (1) 4.16%: 上升通道低点 (2) 4.10%-4.11%: 七月低点(受CPI推动的涨势)和八月低点 (3) ~4.00%: 原始停火区间的顶部

美国5年期收益率 支撑位: (1) 4.63%: 一月2025收益率高点(未显示)(2) 4.736%: 斐波那契扩展 (3) 4.75%: 四月2024收益率高点(未显示) 4 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 这是那种不应过度复杂化图表的时刻:5年期收益率正在突破,目标位为4.63%和4.736%。 阻力位: (1) 4.384% 趋势阻力 (2) 4.22%-4.24%: 此处有多个阻力位 (3) ~4.10%: 多个不同视角的回撤在此交汇

美国10年期收益率 支撑位: (1) 4.805%: 十二月2025收益率高点 (2) 4.83%: 斐波那契扩展(未显示)(3) 5.02%: 2023收益率高点 5 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 这里同样——等待信号再逆势操作,但注意从技术角度看4.75%是心理关口,但4.805%是更好的技术支撑。 阻力位: (1) 4.52%: 趋势线阻力 (2) 4.30%: 三月至五月抛售的50%回撤 (3) ~4.20%: 旧收益率区间顶部,50%回撤

美国30年期收益率 支撑位: (1) 5.128%: 近期收益率高点 (2) 5.44%: 2007收益率高点(是的,追溯到那么远)(3) 5.54%: 2004收益率高点 6 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 债券试图企稳,但与曲线其他部分一样,充其量是脆弱的——关注近期收益率高点。 阻力位: (1) 5.16%: 日线趋势线阻力 (2) 5.05%: 回撤,七月低点收益率 (3) 4.96%-500%: 两个时间框架的回撤区域

美国国债现金2s10s曲线 支撑位: (1) ~37bps: 上升的日线趋势线 (2) ~31bps: 七月平坦化 (3) ~24bps: 六月平坦化 7 NATIXIS美国利率技术图表手册 – 所有来源均为彭博、NATIXIS 图表略微指向重新陡峭化,但有一些障碍需要克服——最值得注意的是在61.8%阻力位附近的失败,位于54.9bps。 阻力位: (1) ~55bps: 旧高点的聚集区,也是61.8%回撤 (2) 59bps: 非常次要的前期上下线 (3) 73.9bps: 2026陡峭化

美国国债现金5s30s曲线支撑位:(1)约70bps:7月份的多个低点(2)61bps-62bps:38.2%回撤位,对应2023-2025陡峭化走势;近期陡峭化走势的61.8%回撤位,以及前期低点。(3)39bps:月线图上的长期支撑位(未显示)8 NATIXIS 美国利率技术图表手册 – 数据来源:彭博、NATIXIS 5s30s在技术上表现持续良好,尤其是对回撤位的尊重(见约95bps处200日均线与61.8%回撤位的交汇)。看似正试图在69.7bp支撑位附近筑底。阻力位:(1)78bps-81bps:此处略为主观判断,前期跌破位及回撤区域(2)86bps-88.5bps:该区域存在多个回撤位(3)95bps-98bps:200日均线,前期区间低位

5年期互换利差支撑位:(1)-30.25bps:回撤支撑位/近期低点(2)-34.2bps/-35.6bps:周线回撤位/战争低点(3)-37.2bps:50%回撤位 9 NATIXIS 美国利率技术图表手册 – 数据来源:彭博、NATIXIS 5年期利差继续在周度区间/通道内交易,最新一轮再次走阔,但近期看起来已显超买。阻力位:(1)-26bps:日线通道上轨(2)-24.3bps:2026高点(3)-22.4bps:2024高点(未显示)

5年期零息通胀互换支撑位:(1)2.31%:多个低点(2)2.16%:2025低点(未显示)(3)2.05%:2024低点(未显示)10 NATIXIS 美国利率技术图表手册 – 数据来源:彭博、NATIXIS 周线锤子线形态后强劲反弹,近期有所盘整,但图表形态仍偏多。不过,“轻松”的上涨阶段已经过去,阻力位迫在眉睫。阻力位:(1)约2.50%:近期高点、200日均线以及近期跌幅的61.8%回撤位(2)2.62%:近期跌幅的38.2%回撤位(3)2.81%:战争时期高点

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 10年期德国国债收益率突破3.00%上方,长期目标3.40%,甚至可能4%。
  • 美国2年期收益率超卖,触及7月高点4.368%的阻力位。
  • 5年期收益率突破,目标4.63%和4.736%。
  • 10年期收益率技术支撑位于4.805%,阻力位于4.52%。
  • 30年期收益率试图企稳,但走势脆弱,关注近期高点。
  • 曲线(2s10s、5s30s)略有陡峭化信号,但面临61.8%回撤位的障碍。
  • 5年期互换利差维持区间交易,近期显得过度。
  • 5年期零息通胀互换反弹看涨,但面临2.50%附近的阻力。
风险
  • 如果动能持续,10年期德国国债收益率可能升至4%,影响全球利率。
  • 美国收益率可能继续突破,阻力位可能失守。
  • 曲线陡峭化可能在61.8%回撤位受阻。
  • 通胀互换可能面临2.50%附近的阻力,并可能出现盘整。
  • 技术指标在波动市场中可能不太可靠。