加拿大住房市场似乎终于在 2026 年逐步走向复苏。
自4月以来，二手房销售持续增长，库存趋于平稳，房价企稳或至少下跌速度放缓。
我们认为，随着负担能力改善和就业前景好转提振信心，未来有望进一步逐步推进，逐渐释放被压抑的需求，并缓慢消化积压的库存。
但复苏之路不太可能平稳，各地区也会存在差异。安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的长期市场调整在情绪上留下了深刻印记，需要时间愈合。
而更具韧性的地区在利率稳定或上升、人口增长停滞的情况下，上行空间有限。
转折点来得太晚，无法阻止全国范围内的 2026 年下滑。
我们预计今年二手房销售和基准价格指数将分别下降至 -3.6% 至 453,200 套，以及 -2.3% 至 $794,200,，主要反映了今年冬季和早春的疲软。
到 2027 年，复苏将更加明显，我们预计交易量将增长至 6.7% 至 483,600 套，基准价值小幅上涨 0.8% 至 $800,700。
这种程度的回升虽然值得欢迎，但不会带来根本性改变。
加拿大市场的整体基调仍将疲软，我们的二手房销售预测远低于疫情前水平，房屋价值仅略高于周期性低点。
展望的关键在于观望中的购房者有多大程度回归市场。
我们认为，过去几年因购房成本急剧上升而搁置购房计划的加拿大人可能有数十万。
其中许多人比预期更久地居住在出租住房中，或推迟了换大房或换小房的计划。
还有一些尚未形成的家庭。我们对户主率的分析表明，自 2019 年以来，加拿大可能被抑制了超过 400,000 万户家庭的组建。释放这一需求代表着住房需求的巨大潜在增长。
我们认为，部分地区的价格调整和负担能力的实质性改善，以及时间的推移，将吸引更多观望买家。
时机不应被低估，因为许多潜在购房者一直在努力储蓄，储蓄率接近 25 年高点，而 25 至 34 岁的就业率高于历史平均水平。
我们认为，这些财务上准备好的购房者的涌入将轻松超过新移民购房需求的暂缓。
移民削减虽然构成显著逆风，但将更直接地影响租赁市场。新移民，尤其是临时居民，倾向于在抵达后的前五至 10 年居住在租赁住房中。
近年来，信心不足一直是主要绊脚石。市场低迷、房价缩水、负担能力紧张、经济疲软和就业担忧等令人不安的因素交织在一起，沉重地压在潜在购房者的心头。
但是，我们预计（尽管关税不确定性再度浮现）更为积极的前景将有助于逐步重建市场情绪。这一过程可能已经在进行中，经济在2,季度稳健反弹，劳动力市场自春末以来也在改善。
我们的基准预测是，GDP增长将持续到2027,年底，尽管增速将从2季度的水平放缓。
这将使劳动力市场在明年春季前消除闲置，甚至到2027年下半年出现轻微用工短缺。
我们认为，就业市场的改善将极大提振信心，并促使更多买家入市。
房价企稳也将产生支撑作用。
房价触底——并最终回升——将缓解人们对投资贬值资产的担忧。
随着交易量增加吸收了库存中的房源，紧迫感可能会增强。在合适的选择被更快抢购的情况下，观望等待未必划算。
这种入市信号将是自我强化的。买家反应越积极，信号就越强，最终复苏也就越强劲。
高昂的住房拥有成本仍构成重大挑战。这是我们预计活动不会急剧反弹的主要原因之一。
但是，自疫情期间达到历史高点以来，加拿大最昂贵市场的成本已大幅下降。
我们认为这一改善将为越来越多的潜在购房者打开大门。
不过，利率不太可能带来额外的负担能力缓解。我们认为本轮周期利率已降至最低。
实际上，长期利率正在上升。全球债券收益率的上行压力正在影响加拿大利率。我们预计到2027年底还会温和上涨。
与此同时，我们认为加拿大央行将按兵不动直至今年年底，然后在2027年随着经济加速而加息。
鉴于加拿大经济仍面临诸多风险，此后的复苏并非板上钉钉。
自2023年以来，我们已统计了四次虚假启动，外部事件（如贸易战或能源价格飙升）打断了原本有望持续但渐进的改善。
这次也可能不会不同。与美国贸易战的升级或中东冲突可能进一步削弱信心。
在国内，移民削减或负担能力问题可能成为比我们预期更强的逆风。
这些风险有可能使房地产市场断断续续的模式延续下去。
即使在最好的情况下，我们认为复苏也会不均衡，前进两步后退一步，各地区同时出现进展和倒退。
我们的展望是，所有地区的转售量和房价将在 2027 上升。
我们预计安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省将缓慢走出长期低迷，负担能力的实质性改善——尽管是从历史最差水平起步——将有助于释放一些被压抑的需求。
我们预计，在经历了今年分别下降 0.5% 和 4.6% 之后，安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的交易量将在 2027, 分别增长 8.2% 和 7.8%。
同样，我们预计安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的房价（RPS房价指数）将分别小幅上涨 0.7% 和 0.5%，这是两年来首次上涨。
然而，公寓市场板块的复苏需要更长时间。多伦多和温哥华地区的库存充足，加上投资者兴趣低迷，可能会使公寓价格持续下跌，甚至可能延续到 2027。
明年，萨斯喀彻温省、曼尼托巴省、魁北克省以及大西洋加拿大部分地区的销售额回升，将反映出更稳定的持有成本、相对较少的待释放被压抑需求以及较慢的人口增长。
与此同时，库存的增加将缓解紧张的供需关系。
我们预计这将抑制这些地区许多地方的房价涨幅。我们的预测显示，综合价格指数的涨幅将从萨省的 4.8%（2026）放缓至 2.5%（2027），曼尼托巴省从 4.9% 降至 1.9%，魁北克省从 6.4% 降至 1.2%，新不伦瑞克省从 5% 降至 0.9%，纽芬兰和拉布拉多省从 4.8% 降至 1.3%。
对于新斯科舍省和爱德华王子岛，我们预计明年房价将分别反弹 1.1% 和 0.3%，此前在 2026 分别下跌了 1.1% 和 2.7%。
最后，我们预计阿尔伯塔省相对强劲的经济和人口状况将提振转售量，并为房价增添一些热度。我们预计，在经历了今年的 6.8% 下降和 1.4% 增长之后，交易量将在 2027, 增长 7.1%，RPS HPI 将上涨 1.8%。
Robert Hogue 是助理首席经济学家，负责提供加拿大住房市场和各省经济的分析和预测。
Canada’s housing market seems to be finally taking steps toward recovery in 2026.
Home resales have been on a winning streak since April, inventory has levelled off, and prices appear to be stabilizing or at least falling more slowly.
We see room for further gradual progress ahead as improved affordability and brightening job prospects shore up confidence, increasingly unlocking pent-up demand and slowly draining piled up inventory.
But, the path is unlikely to be smooth or uniform across the country. The prolonged market correction in Ontario and British Columbia has left a deep mark on sentiment that will take time to heal.
And, more resilient regions have little upside left amid stable or rising interest rates and stagnant population growth.
The turnaround point has also come too late to prevent Canada-wide declines in 2026.
We project home resales and the benchmark price index to fall -3.6% to 453,200 units and -2.3% to $794,200, respectively, this year mainly reflecting weakness this winter and early spring.
Recovery will become more visible by 2027 when we forecast transactions to grow 6.7% to 483,600 units, and the benchmark value edges higher by 0.8% to $800,700.
An upturn of this magnitude won’t be transformative while welcome.
The general tone of Canada’s market will still be soft with our resales projections far below levels before the pandemic and home values just a smidgeon above the cyclical low.
The key to the outlook will be the extent to which sidelined homebuyers make their way to market.
We think there could be hundreds of thousands of Canadians who put plans to buy a home on hold in the past several years due to sharp increases in ownership costs.
Many of them are living longer than preferred in rented accommodation or delaying upsizing or downsizing current digs.
There are also households that haven’t been formed yet. Our analysis of headship rates suggests the creation of more than 400,000 households could have been suppressed in Canada since 2019. Unlocking this represents substantial potential growth in housing demand.
We believe price corrections and material affordability improvement in parts of the country, and just the passage of time will draw more sidelined buyers.
Timing shouldn’t be underestimated, because many would-be buyers have been working hard toward making a purchase with savings near a 25-year-high rate, and 25- to 34-year-olds employed at an above average historical rate.
We see this influx of financially ready house hunters easily outweighing the lull in homebuyer demand from newcomers to Canada.
Immigration cuts, while posing a significant headwind, will more readily affect the rental space. Newcomers, especially temporary residents, tend to live in rental housing for the first five to 10 years in the country.
Low confidence has been a major stumbling block in recent years. The disquieting mix of the market slump, dwindling home values, strained affordability, soft economy and job concerns have weighed heavily on the minds of prospective buyers.
But, we expect a more positive landscape (despite renewed tariff uncertainty) will help progressively rebuild sentiment. This process is likely already underway with the economy solidly rebounding in Q2, and the labour market improving since the end of spring.
Our base case forecast has GDP growth sustained through the end of 2027, albeit moderating from Q2’s pace.
This would eliminate labour market slack by spring next year, and even lead to a slight worker shortage by the second half of 2027.
We think an improving job market will do wonders for confidence, and spur more buyers into action.
Stabilizing home prices will also have a bolstering impact.
A bottoming of home values—and eventual appreciation—will allay concerns about investing in a depreciating asset.
As increased transactions absorb units from inventory, a greater sense of urgency is likely to emerge. It may not pay off to play the waiting game as suitable options get snapped up faster.
Such signals to enter the market will be self-reinforcing. The more buyers respond, the stronger the signals, and ultimately, the recovery becomes.
High home ownership costs still pose substantial challenges. They’re a primary reason why we aren’t expecting a sharp snapback in activity.
But, costs have come down materially in Canada’s most expensive markets since reaching all-time highs during the pandemic.
We see this improvement opening the door to an increasing number of prospective buyers.
Interest rates are unlikely to bring additional affordability relief, though. We believe they are as low as they will get this cycle.
Long term rates are, in fact, rising. Upward pressure on global bond yields is impacting Canadian rates. We expect further mild increases through the end of 2027.
Meanwhile, we see the Bank of Canada on hold until the end of this year before raising its policy rate in 2027 as the economy picks up steam.
The recovery ahead isn’t a sure bet given the many risks still facing the Canadian economy.
We’ve counted four false starts since 2023 with external events (think trade war or energy price spikes) derailing what promised to be lasting, albeit gradual improvement.
This time may not be different. Escalation in the trade war with the U.S. or conflict in the Middle East could further undermine confidence.
At home, immigration cuts or affordability issues could prove stiffer headwinds than we expect.
These risks threaten to perpetuate the on-again-off-again pattern in the housing market.
Even in the best of cases, we think the recovery will be irregular with two steps forward followed by a step back, and regions progressing and regressing at the same time.
Our outlook has resales and prices rising in all regions in 2027.
We expect Ontario and B.C. to slowly emerge from their prolonged slumps with material affordability improvement—albeit from worst-ever levels—helping to unlock some pent-up demand.
We project transactions will increase 8.2% in Ontario and 7.8% in B.C. in 2027, following declines of 0.5% and 4.6% this year, respectively.
Similarly, we see 2027 home values (RPS Home Price Index) edging higher by 0.7% in Ontario and 0.5% in B.C. for the first time in two years.
It will take longer for the condo market segment to turn around, however. Abundant inventory in the Toronto and Vancouver areas, and investor apathy are bound to keep condo prices downward possibly into 2027.
Measured sales rebounds next year in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec and parts of Atlantic Canada will reflect steadier ownership costs, comparatively less pent-up demand to unlock and slower population growth.
Meanwhile, growing inventory will ease tight supply and demand.
We expect this will take the edge off home value appreciation in many of those regions. Our forecast has the rate of increase in the aggregate price index slowing from 4.8% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027 in Saskatchewan, from 4.9% to 1.9% in Manitoba, from 6.4% to 1.2% in Quebec, from 5% to 0.9% in New Brunswick and from 4.8% to 1.3% in Newfoundland and Labrador.
For Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, we project prices will rebound next year by 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively after declining 1.1% and 2.7% in 2026.
Finally, we see a relatively robust economy and demographic picture in Alberta boosting resales, and adding a bit of heat to home values. We project transactions to rise by 7.1%, and the RPS HPI to gain 1.8% in 2027, following a 6.8% decline and 1.4% increase this year, respectively.
Robert Hogue is the Assistant Chief Economist responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.
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