ISM制造业指数再度表现强劲，增强了市场对制造业复苏可持续性的信心，这得益于科技相关资本支出的持续激增。然而，经济新增就业岗位数量依然有限，薪资压力也异常温和。
就今日美国数据而言，8月ISM制造业指数为54.6，略低于预期的55.6（市场预期为55.2）。50为荣枯分水岭：指数高于50,越多，增长越快；低于50则表明收缩，数值越低收缩越严重。
从分项数据看，生产指数仍处于强劲增长区间，为58.3，历史水平与接近3%的GDP增速相符。新订单指数从56.7下滑至53.7，为3月以来最低；就业指数从52.8回落至51.2，但仍高于6个月均值49.6。总体而言，这些活动指标突显了制造业的改善，这在很大程度上得益于科技相关投资支出的激增。不利的一面是，物价支付指数仍非常坚挺，为71.1，表明能源、大宗商品和半导体等投入成本仍在快速上升。整体来看，该报告并未削弱市场对美联储本月晚些时候加息的预期——目前市场预期加息25bp个基点的概率为16bp。
与此同时，7月职位空缺数升至7271万，而6月数据大幅下修至7182万（最初报告为7359万）。然而，该报告波动较大，历史上与Indeed招聘网站的每日数据高度相关。今日的Indeed数据与约7000万的职位空缺数一致，这表明未来几个月职位空缺数将再度放缓。
裁员率仍处于低位，但招聘人数同样低迷。这种低招聘、低裁员的就业环境意味着人员流动率——以离职率衡量（即辞职换工作的人数占比）——回落至仅1.9%。该水平历史意义上与低于-3%的同比工资增长水平相符。鉴于美国企业最大的成本投入是劳动力，这应能缓解其他领域的成本上升。这也意味着，过去18个月一直持平的实质家庭可支配收入短期内不会增加。在我们看来，这表明如果美联储确实在9月加息，也无需连续加息。
Another firm ISM manufacturing index boosts confidence in the durability of the recovery in the sector, fuelled by the ongoing surge in tech-related capital expenditure. However, the economy continues to create limited numbers of jobs with wage pressures remaining remarkably benign
In terms of today’s US data, the August ISM manufacturing index is a touch softer than expected at 54.6 in August, down from 55.6 (consensus 55.2). The 50 mark separates expansion from contraction: the further the index rises above 50, the faster the pace of growth, while readings below 50 indicate contraction, with lower values signalling a steeper decline.
In terms of the details, the production index remains in very strong growth territory at 58.3, historically consistent with GDP growth of close to 3%. New orders slipped to 53.7 from 56.7, the weakest reading since March, while employment moderated to 51.2 from 52.8, but remains clear of the 6M average of 49.6. In general, the activity metrics underscore the improvements seen in the manufacturing sector, which is in large part a consequence of the surge in tech related investment spending. The downside is the prices paid component remains very firm at 71.1, indicating input costs, such as energy, commodities and semiconductors, continue to increase at a rapid pace. Overall, there is nothing in this report to moderate market pricing over a Federal Reserve rate hike later in the month - that currently stands at 16bp of a potential 25bp hike.
Meanwhile, the July job opening numbers rose to 7271k from a significantly downwardly revised June print of 7182k (originally reported as 7359k). However, this report is volatile and historically tracks the Indeed job posting website daily data. Today, the Indeed figures are consistent with job openings of around 7000k, which points to renewed moderation in job openings in coming months.
Layoffs remain very low, but so too are the hiring numbers. This low hire, low fire economy means the churn rate, as measured by the quits rate – the proportion of workers quitting to move to a new job – dipped back to just 1.9%. That level is historically consistent with sub-3% year-on-year wage growth. Given that the biggest cost input for corporate America is workers, this should mitigate higher costs elsewhere. It also implies that real household disposable incomes, which have flatlined for the past 18 months, are not going to head higher anytime soon. To us, this suggests that if the Fed does hike rates in September, there isn't the need for a series of hikes.
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