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法国外贸银行 · Patricia FLOREZ CABRA · 2026/09/01

欧元区:8月通胀回顾 初步估算

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营销传播:本文件为营销演示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的约束。研究 1 年 2026 月 欧洲、中东及非洲地区宏观速览 欧元区:8月通胀回顾初步估算 8月能源价格增长再次加速 根据欧盟统计局初步估算,欧元区8月总体通胀年率平均为 3.26%%(高于我们预估的 3.20%%),高于7月的 2.94%%。剔除能源、食品、酒精和烟草价格的核心通胀降至 2.41%%(低于我们预测的 2.50%%),而前一个月为 2.48%%。各分项初步估算显示: ► 服务业对总体通胀年率的贡献有所下降,为 1.43 个百分点(7月为 1.54 个百分点)。 ► 能源分项的贡献显著上升,达 1.30 个百分点(7月为 0.94 个百分点)。 ► 食品、酒精和烟草的贡献保持稳定,为 0.22 个百分点(7月为 0.22 个百分点)。 ► 非能源工业品的贡献上升至 0.31 个百分点(7月为 0.24 个百分点)。我们预计,2026 年总体通胀年率平均为 2.8%%,核心通胀年率平均为 2.4%%。 撰写人 Patricia FLOREZ CABRA 电话 +33 1 58 55 62 71 patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com 在 research.natixis.com 发现更多研究…

EMEA 宏观速览 2 图表 1:欧元区HICP月度通胀(%)及其主要分项贡献(百分点) 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis 图表 2:欧元区HICP年度通胀及其主要分项(%) 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis 根据初步估算,欧元区8月总体通胀年率为 3.26%%(图表 2),环比变化为 0.45%%(图表 1)。核心通胀年率为 2.41%%(图表 2),环比变化为 0.22%%(图表 1)。服务业对总体通胀年率的贡献最大,为 1.43 个百分点(同比 3.05%%,环比 0.06%%),其次是能源,贡献 1.30 个百分点(同比 14.26%%,环比 2.89%%),食品、酒精和烟草贡献 0.22 个百分点(同比 1.16%%,环比 0.00%%),非能源工业品贡献 0.31 个百分点(同比 1.24%%,环比 0.56%%)。 -1,2 -0,8 -0,4 0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 2025-12 2026-01 2026-02 2026-03 2026-04 2026-05 2026-06 2026-07 2026-08 % 环比 食品 非能源工业品 能源 服务业 HICP 2,94 2,48 1,19 0,95 10,30 3,28 3,26 2,41 1,16 1,24 14,26 3,05 HICP 核心 食品 非能源工业品 能源 服务业 % 同比 7月 8月

EMEA宏观速览 3 各国细分概览 ► 德国:8月总体通胀率平均为2.93%(同比),低于我们预估的3.0%(同比),高于7月的2.84%(同比)。与此同时,核心通胀率为2.58%(同比),较7月的2.63%(同比)有所下降。正如预期,能源通胀加速,录得9.36%(同比)(环比1.51%),而7月为7.33%(同比),对总体通胀率的贡献为0.85个百分点。服务业通胀显示出降温迹象,录得2.91%(同比)(环比-0.20%),低于7月的3.29%(同比),贡献1.38个百分点。食品、酒精和烟草通胀率为0.92%(同比)(环比-0.08%),低于7月的1.29%(同比),贡献0.15个百分点。最后,非能源工业品(NEIG)通胀录得2.00%(同比)(环比0.43%),高于上月记录的1.49%(同比),贡献0.55个百分点。► 法国:8月总体通胀率达到2.69%(同比)(低于我们预测的2.80%(同比)),较7月的2.37%(同比)大幅上升。与此同时,核心通胀率录得1.40%(同比),较上月记录的1.45%(同比)有所下降。能源方面,通胀升至16.51%(同比)(环比3.34%),而7月为12.50%(同比),对总体通胀率的贡献为1.41个百分点。服务业通胀率达到2.13%(同比)(环比-0.04%),低于7月的2.40%(同比),贡献1.05个百分点。食品、酒精和烟草的同比率录得1.32%(同比)(环比0.39%),高于7月的1.20%(同比),贡献0.24个百分点。最后,非能源工业品(NEIG)通胀率为-0.03%(同比)(环比1.87%),而7月为-0.41%(同比),贡献-0.01个百分点。► 意大利:意大利总体通胀率为3.22%(同比)(高于我们预期的3.1%(同比)),较7月的2.91%(同比)上升。核心通胀小幅下降至1.71%(同比),而前一个月为1.81%(同比)。能源通胀录得17.01%(同比)(环比2.79%),7月为11.66%(同比),对总体通胀率的贡献为1.85个百分点。服务业通胀录得2.16%(同比)(环比0.29%),较7月的2.47%(同比)有所下降,贡献0.91个百分点。食品、酒精和烟草价格小幅下降至1.39%(同比)(环比0.20%),而7月为1.40%(同比),贡献0.29个百分点。非能源工业品(NEIG)小幅下降至0.63%(同比)(环比-1.33%),上月为0.62%(同比),贡献0.16个百分点。► 西班牙:8月总体通胀率录得4.52%(同比)(而我们预测为4.2%(同比)),7月为3.90%(同比)。核心通胀放缓至3.52%(同比),低于上月观察到的3.70%(同比)。能源价格同比变化为17.27%(同比)(环比5.79%),继7月录得10.22%(同比)之后,对总体通胀率的贡献为1.60个百分点。服务业通胀录得3.93%(同比)(环比0.30%),较7月的4.19%(同比)有所下降,贡献2.02个百分点。食品、酒精和烟草类别录得2.36%(同比)(环比-0.13%),高于7月的1.84%(同比),贡献0.48个百分点。最后,非能源工业品(NEIG)通胀率变化为2.16%(同比)(环比- 0.30%),而7月为2.18%(同比),贡献0.42个百分点。

EMEA宏观速览 4 企业与投资银行研究主管 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE +33 1 58 55 13 09 +33 1 58 55 99 93 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 金融机构 Alain DURRE, Ph.D. Bouchra RHAJBAL +33 1 58 55 60 49 +33 1 58 55 79 93 alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 德国、欧元区 担保债券 Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY +33 1 58 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 1 58 55 05 81 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com 西班牙、意大利、希腊、葡萄牙、欧元区 欧元区通胀、宏观建模、欧元区 Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA +33 1 58 55 99 90 +33 1 58 55 62 71 jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com CEMEA 英国、北欧、房地产 Inna MUFTEEVA, CFA Sylwia HUBAR, Ph.D. +33 1 58 55 52 04 +33 1 58 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 助理经济学家 Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com 数据库 Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON +33 1 58 55 14 76 +33 1 58 55 99 92 +33 1 58 55 12 65 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com Andriat RAKOTOVAO +33 1 58 55 14 92 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao @natixis.com

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The Materials must not be publicly distributed and any use of the Materials by anyone other than the addressee is not authorized. The addressee is required to comply with all applicable laws in this Jurisdiction, including, without limitation, tax laws and exchange control regulations, if any. Peru: The products/information mentioned here has/have not been registered under the Peruvian Securities Market Law (Supreme Decree N° 093-2002-EF) or before the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV). There will be no public offering of the shares in Peru The SMV has not reviewed the information provided to the investor. This material is only for the exclusive use of Institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution." Panama: This document and its content are for information purposes and shall not be interpreted as banking or financial intermediation, business solicitation and/or public offering of any kind. Any and all services provided by Natixis are provided on a cross border basis outside of Panama. Natixis is not authorized by the Superintendence of Banks nor the Superintendence of the Securities Market to carry out any activities locally in Panama. Brazil: There are no products mentioned here which have been issued, placed, distributed or offered in the Brazilian market. Documents relating to these products, as well as information contained therein, August not be supplied to the public in Brazil nor be used in connection with any offer for subscription or sale of financial products or services to the public in Brazil. These products will not be offered in Brazil, except in circumstances which do not constitute any breach or noncompliance with the Brazilian applicable legislation. Mexico: “As per your request, this information is delivered to you, which strictly pertains to activities performed by Natixis, a Foreign Financial Entity in its country of origin, such institution is herein represented by its Representation Office in Mexico. This information is being delivered to you for information purposes only. Please note that the Representation Office in Mexico is prevented from negotiating, executing, or participating in (i) operations related to listed derivatives; and (ii) securing funds from the general public in Mexico.” Disclaimer
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 8月份能源价格增长再次加快,对总体通胀贡献1.30个百分点。
  • 核心通胀降至同比2.41%,低于预期,因服务业通胀放缓。
  • 国家数据显示,德国、法国、意大利和西班牙的能源通胀加速,而主要经济体的服务业通胀均有所降温。
风险
  • 如果地缘政治紧张持续,能源通胀可能继续加速,推高总体通胀。
  • 如果工资增长依然强劲,服务业通胀可能重新加速,使核心通胀保持高位。
  • 通胀上行意外可能促使欧洲央行比预期更积极地收紧政策。