澳洲联邦银行预计，本周期全国房价将从峰值下跌约9%。
房价下跌已蔓延至布里斯班、珀斯和阿德莱德。
2027的复苏部分依赖于预期中的澳联储降息。
澳大利亚的住房低迷比预期更快、更广泛，房价下跌已超出悉尼和墨尔本，蔓延至此前一些表现最强的首府城市市场。
8月份全国房价再度下跌0.9%，为连续第五个月下跌，使房价较3月份峰值低3.6%。
这种疲软促使澳洲联邦银行经济学家下调了住房预测，目前预计全国房价在本周期内从峰值到谷底的跌幅约为9%。
“过去三个月的调整幅度和速度均超出我们的预期，”澳洲联邦银行高级经济学家Trent Saunders在一份新的《经济洞察》报告中表示。
悉尼和墨尔本仍是最疲弱的主要住房市场。
悉尼房价8月份下跌1.4%，目前较2月份峰值低7.1%，而墨尔本房价下跌1.1%，较此前峰值低6.5%。
澳洲联邦银行目前预计，悉尼和墨尔本的峰值至谷底跌幅将分别约为13%和12%。
但近几个月更大的变化是其他地方的情况。
布里斯班和阿德莱德均录得连续三个月房价下跌，而珀斯已连续四个月下跌。
这与今年早些时候形成鲜明对比，当时珀斯房价每28天上涨约2%至2.5%。
澳洲联邦银行目前预计，布里斯班、珀斯和阿德莱德的房价从峰值到谷底的跌幅将约为8%。
“低迷态势也已显著扩大，”Saunders表示。
其他指标也表明买卖双方的市场条件正在发生变化。
房屋销售耗时延长，尤其是在年初势头强劲的市场。
在布里斯班，房产在市场上的中位销售时间已从年初的15天增加到截至8月的三个月内的35天。
在珀斯，该时间已从仅九天上升至22天。
拍卖清出率也较去年有所减弱，这为潜在买家提供了更多选择和时间来做出决定，而此前竞争更为激烈时情况并非如此。
Saunders表示，下调预测的背后有三个主要原因。
首先，过去三个月住房市场动能减弱的速度快于预期。
其次，低迷已蔓延至此前预计住房供应紧张将给价格提供更大支持的城市。
第三，利率前景已上移。
澳洲联邦银行目前预计，澳大利亚储备银行将在11月将现金利率再上调0.25个百分点至4.60%。
这将加剧借贷成本上升、信心疲弱以及预算案中宣布的住房税收政策变化带来的压力。
CommBank仍预计住房下行周期最终会结束，预测价格将在2027期间企稳并开始回升。
预计全国住房价格在2027,将上涨约2%，该预测部分依赖于CommBank对澳联储将于明年5月和8月降息的预期。
如果现金利率在2027,全年保持在4.60%，CommBank估计全国住房价格全年将基本持平。
“我们基线预测中2027的温和增长依赖于预期的降息，”桑德斯表示。
还有一些因素最终会提供一定支撑。
价格下跌应会提高可负担性并增加租金收益率，吸引部分买家重返市场，同时住房供应仍然紧张。8月份全国租赁空置率处于历史低位的1.8%。
然而，就目前而言，动能减弱和借贷成本上升的组合意味着CommBank预计住房调整将持续到明年上半年。
获取澳大利亚联邦银行的最新新闻和公告。
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CommBank expects national dwelling prices to fall around 9% from their peak this cycle.
Price falls have spread to Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
A recovery in 2027 relies partly on expected RBA rate cuts.
Australia’s housing downturn is proving faster and more widespread than expected, with price falls extending beyond Sydney and Melbourne to some of the country’s previously strongest capital city markets.
National dwelling prices fell another 0.9% in August, their fifth consecutive monthly decline, leaving prices 3.6% below their March peak.
The weakness has prompted CommBank economists to downgrade their housing forecasts, with national prices now expected to fall around 9% from peak to trough this cycle.
“The adjustment over the past three months has been larger and faster than we anticipated,” CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders said in a new Economic Insights report.
Sydney and Melbourne remain the weakest major housing markets.
Sydney dwelling prices fell 1.4% in August and are now 7.1% below their February peak, while Melbourne prices fell 1.1% and are 6.5% below their previous peak.
CommBank now expects peak-to-trough declines of around 13% in Sydney and 12% in Melbourne.
But the bigger change in recent months has been what’s happening elsewhere.
Brisbane and Adelaide have each recorded three consecutive monthly price falls, while Perth has fallen for four months in a row.
That marks a sharp reversal from earlier in the year, when Perth home prices were increasing by around 2% to 2.5% every 28 days.
CommBank now expects prices in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide to fall by around 8% from peak to trough.
“The downturn has also broadened materially,” Saunders said.
Other measures also point to a shift in conditions for buyers and sellers.
Homes are taking longer to sell, particularly in markets that entered the year with strong momentum.
In Brisbane, the median time a property spends on the market has increased from 15 days at the start of the year to 35 days over the three months to August.
In Perth, it has risen from just nine days to 22 days.
Auction clearance rates have also weakened relative to where they were last year, giving prospective buyers more choice and more time to make decisions than they had when competition was stronger.
Saunders said three main reasons were behind the downgraded forecast.
First, housing market momentum has weakened more rapidly than expected over the past three months.
Second, the downturn has spread to cities where tight housing supply had previously been expected to provide greater support to prices.
And third, the outlook for interest rates has shifted higher.
CommBank now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by another 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% in November.
That would add to the pressure already coming from higher borrowing costs, weaker sentiment and changes to housing tax policy announced in the Budget.
CommBank still expects the housing downturn to eventually run its course, with prices forecast to stabilise and begin recovering during 2027.
National dwelling prices are forecast to rise around 2% over 2027, and that forecast relies partly on CommBank’s expectation that the RBA will cut interest rates in May and August next year.
If the cash rate instead remained at 4.60% throughout 2027, CommBank estimates national dwelling prices would be broadly flat over the year.
“The modest growth in our baseline forecast over 2027 relies on the expected rate cuts,” Saunders said.
There are also factors that should eventually provide some support.
Falling prices should improve affordability and increase rental yields, drawing some buyers back into the market, while housing supply remains tight. The national rental vacancy rate was at a historically low 1.8% in August.
For now, however, the combination of weaker momentum and higher borrowing costs means CommBank expects the housing adjustment to continue through the first half of next year.
For the latest news and announcements from Commonwealth Bank.
The information presented is an extract of a Global Economic and Markets Research (GEMR) Economic Insights report. GEMR is a business unit of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945. This extract provides only a summary of the named report. Please use the link provided to access the full report, and view all relevant disclosures, analyst certifications and the independence statement. The named report is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, the named report is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This extract has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation (including your capacity to bear loss), knowledge, experience or needs. It is not to be construed as an act of solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial products, or as a recommendation and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information contained in this extract or named report. To the extent that you choose to make any investment decision after reading this extract and/or named report you should not rely on it but consider its appropriateness and suitability to your own objectives, financial situation and needs, and, if appropriate, seek professional or independent financial advice, including tax and legal advice.
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