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法国外贸银行 · Benito BERBER · 2026/08/28

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营销通讯:本文件为营销演示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;亦不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的任何限制。28年2026月 美洲纵横 撰稿人 Benito BERBER 电话:+12126983044 benito.berber@natixis.com Christopher HODGE 电话:+1 212 891 1917 christopher.hodge@natixis.com John BRIGGS 电话:+1 212 583 4982 john.briggs@natixis.com Selin AKER 电话:+1 929 688 6923 selin.aker@natixis.com 访问我们的网站了解更多 等待沃什… “有两种方式会被愚弄:一是相信不真实的事;二是拒绝相信真实的事。”——克尔凯郭尔 ► 本周头条将是美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔的首次演讲,该演讲将在本周《美洲纵横》发布之后开始。我们提供了预览(此处),并将在演讲结束后发布总结。 ► 7月份总体PCE环比上涨0.2%(同比3.7%),略高于市场预期的环比0.1%,而核心PCE环比上涨0.2%(同比3.3%),符合预期。结合高于预期的收入和支出数据,以及更强的核心GDP增长,8月份的通胀数据看上去略偏高(因此偏鹰派),但幅度有限。8月份消费者信心略有下降,消费者对劳动力市场和经济状况的前景变得更加悲观。 ► 我们自上周回购公告发布前起,在长端保持中性立场,市场仍在消化其影响。我们关注该行动带来的未来高度不确定性,包括市场可能需要为意外变化提供补偿,并可能带来更大影响。我们还在此背景下,并对照我们一些更长期的模型和分析,审视长端利差。 ► 巴西——卢拉之子的腐败丑闻影响民调,但卢拉仍是热门人选。哥伦比亚——关于预算的初步看法。墨西哥——墨西哥央行继续释放6.50%信号,但其下一步可能是什么?

纵观美洲 2 美国每周回顾 7月总体PCE环比上升0.2%(同比3.7%),略高于市场预期的环比0.1%,核心PCE环比上升0.2%(同比3.3%),符合预期。个人收入环比增长0.4%,个人支出环比增长0.2%,两者均高于市场预期。经通胀调整后,实际支出当月持平,可能反映了在6月促销、销售和世界杯推动强劲消费支出后,7月有所回落。与此同时,第二季度GDP第二次预估为1.5%,与初次预估持平并符合预期,而消费者支出从此前年化增长率3.2%上修至3.4%。总体PCE环比上升0.2%…… 而核心PCE也环比上升0.2% 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 资料来源:Natixis, Haver 总体而言,通胀数据月度环比略高于预期,但三个月和六个月年化率略有下降。结合高于预期的收入和支出数据以及更强的核心GDP增长,整体数据显得略偏热(因此偏鹰派),但幅度有限。需要更疲软数据才能避免加息的联邦公开市场委员会成员(例如州长克里斯托弗·沃勒)将不会相信反通胀会恢复,而那些倾向于按兵不动的成员(如纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯)则不会感到恐慌。由于今天的数据基本符合预期,不应产生太大影响,9月公布的CPI数据将更具指示意义。7月个人支出增长主要由服务业主导 资料来源:Natixis, Haver

美洲各地 3 世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数在8月低于预期,从上月的 90.2 小幅下降至 89.4。尽管消费者对当前劳动力和商业状况更为乐观,现状指数上升 6.8 点,但他们对未来六个月的预期有所恶化,预期指数下降 5.8 点。8月消费者的书面回复中提到了对整体价格以及油价和天然气价格居高不下的担忧,同时提及战争与冲突、食品和杂货、贸易和就业的次数有所增加。尽管信心疲软,但劳动力市场差值(表示认为工作机会充足与认为工作难找的受访者比例之差)从 2.7 攀升至 7.5。8月消费者信心下降…… ……因预期指数大幅下滑 资料来源:Natixis、Haver 资料来源:Natixis、Haver 下周关注要点 随着夏季接近尾声,下周的经济日历将包括周二的ISM制造业PMI和职位空缺与劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)、周四的ISM服务业PMI,以及最重要的周五就业报告。在连续四个月就业增长疲软之后,市场普遍预期8月非农就业人数将增加 60千人,而7月为减少 23千人。尽管失业率自4月以来有所下降,但市场普遍预期8月失业率将从之前的 4.1% 小幅上升至 4.2%。在7月疲弱的就业报告公布之前,美联储曾将劳动力市场描述为总体平衡。然而,如果8月报告也表现疲软,政策制定者可能需要在关注通胀的同时,更加重视劳动力市场状况。 美国利率策略 不要低估美国国债引入的不确定性水平 过去一周,美国利率市场继续感受到贝森特意外增加国债回购计划带来的余波,他试图遏制长期收益率上升(请注意,本文撰写于沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话发布之前)。我们近期的所有客户谈话都涉及这一话题,且几乎一致认为,除非基本面发生转变,否则干预措施在长期内注定失败,即使短期内可能见效。我们也持同样观点。话虽如此,我们确实认为,公告的影响继续波及市场,尤其是在头寸暴露明显的领域,无论是曲线陡峭化头寸还是互换利差曲线(我们偏好利差趋陡交易,上周这些头寸受到了考验)。随着本周推进,市场交易趋于平衡,但这两个领域以及其他受公告影响的领域几乎没有反弹。我们上周提到的一个问题本周引发了热议,即投资者不应低估贝森特给美国国债市场带来的不确定性。更具体地说,市场参与者不仅应思考未来所有回购的规模将如何,还应考虑……

跨美市场 4 要担心的是,规模可能随时变化(不仅仅是在定期公布日期或再融资公告日),而且美国财政部任何与其供需活动相关的公告现在都可能随时发布。我们还能相信供应变化只会在季度再融资时公布,并且经过包括与财政部借款咨询委员会讨论在内的正常流程吗?至少,答案必须是,自财政部在非周期时间,并且是响应收益率而非流动性或市场状况而宣布调整回购计划以来,我们对财政部坚持这一传统的信心必须降低。一方面,这种不确定性对贝森特的目标有利:投机者可能更加谨慎,不敢推高长端收益率,因为变更可能随时宣布。另一方面,增加的不确定性应该会增加投资者持有美国国债所要求的补偿——即这将增加期限溢价。与上文讨论的类似,这些行动短期内可能有利,但长期来看我们认为适得其反。事实上,自从公告发布以来,大多数人都得出了这一结论,但我们的观点是不要低估所引入的不确定性水平:我们必须考虑到,例如,如果财政部长认为有必要,长端拍卖规模的削减(或为下一次正式再融资预先宣布)可能随时发生。话虽如此,我们对长端仍然保持中立,尽管今年一直看空。这一观点实际上在公告前一天就发生了变化,而实际上回购公告只是在一定程度上影响了它,并且强化了我们的长期观点,即期限溢价是一个不会消失的不利因素(而且现在只会变得更加强烈,再加上其他现有的诸多不利因素)。我们最坚定的观点仍然是做多曲线腹部,预期市场定价将因持续的反通胀而随时间推移反映美联储的政策,这仍是Natixis美国经济研究的核心观点。美国 5 年期现金国债——超卖,本周趋势线位于 4.384%,下周 4.412% 资料来源:Natixis,彭博 互换利差 关于较长端利差的简短说明,过去这些利差往往与一级交易商在各自板块的头寸整体水平有一定相关性(简单基于资产负债表/杠杆成本的前提)。然而,今年利差交易较为昂贵,至少从 2021, 疫情后时代开始以来的关系来看是这样。下图显示了 10 年期利差与一级交易商在 7-11 年期板块头寸之间的关系,首先是 1/2021 至 8/5/26, 的整个期间,其次是仅 2026 年初至今。

美洲纵横 5 10年期互换利差与一级交易商在 7-11年期板块的持仓 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 自 2021 2026起 仅 10年期 利差与一级交易商 7-11 百万美元 基点 当前 来源:Natixis,彭博 我们加入了“仅 2026”的时间段,因为随着今年行情的发展,这种关系显然已经发生了转变,至少目前是这样。我们的理论是,在人工智能相关债券大量发行的时代,与交易相关的支付行为引发了二阶效应,而这种新关系——尽管我们只参考了 2026的数据,样本仍然有限——可能正在形成。尽管如此,如果事实果真如此,目前利差按照这一指标看起来相当接近“公允价值”,而不是按照较长时间框架的关系所显示的那样偏贵。有趣的是,观察 30年期利差,我们没有看到同样类型的转变,但仍然发生了明显的变化。具体而言,对于 30年期利差与交易商在 11+年期板块的持仓,这种转变更多是平行上移(大约相当于不可忽视的约 7bp个基点)。但请注意,这一分析有意排除了最近几天围绕美国国债回购模式变化引发的波动——我们希望先让市场对此消息充分消化,再将其更全面地纳入分析。30年期互换利差与一级交易商在 11+年期板块的持仓 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 -100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 自 2021 2026起 仅 30年期 利差与一级交易商 11+ 百万美元 基点 当前 来源:Natixis,彭博

美洲纵横 6 最后,查看我们的长期30年互换利差公允价值模型,我们发现30年互换利差相对于公允价值仍显得 somewhat 偏高。该模型每月更新,最新观察数据截至7月底,因此也尚未捕捉到最近的市场波动。30年互换利差与公允价值的偏差 21 22 23 24 25 26 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40 差异 - 左轴 公允价值(基点) - 右轴 实际值(基点) - 右轴 30年互换利差:公允价值 vs 实际值 资料来源:Natixis,彭博 有趣的是,30年利差在-2025年末段(随着AI发行量攀升)和整个2026年至今均高于公允价值,最新读数显示利差约5.5个基点偏高。这接近于上述使用交易商持仓作为指标时,后-2020制度与仅2026制度之间约7bp个基点的差异,但同样,这里数据有限(数据点甚至少于上述周度分析),因此要断定发生了转变仍为时过早,但这一巧合至少耐人寻味。关于我们对互换曲线的看法,我们继续建议持有3年利差多头,相对于10年利差,以获取正carry,并认为前端利差将相对跑赢长端利差。同样,财政部近期限制30年收益率的行动将普遍影响较长端利差,但我们认为部长并未解决基本问题,因此这些行动最终不会成功。美国利率交易想法追踪 公开交易 日期 交易想法 状态 入场(基点) 目标(基点) 止损(基点) 期限(月) 当前水平(基点) 表现(基点) 7/8/2026 做多美国国债5年期 进行中 4.38 4.15 4.52 6 4.39 -1 6/26/2026 美国5年期零息通胀互换 进行中 2.35 2.70 2.28 6 2.50 15 6/26/2026 3s10s互换利差走平 进行中 -20.00 -26.00 -16 6 -18 -2 公开波动率交易 日期 交易想法 状态 成本/100毫米 目标 止损 期限(月) 当前水平 表现 1/21/2025 5年远期5s30s熊陡 进行中 -5.00 12.00 -10.00 12 -2 3 日期 交易想法 状态 入场(基点) 目标(基点) 止损(基点) 期限(月) 收盘水平(基点) 表现(基点)

美洲纵横 7 6/26/2026 美日 2s10s 互换盒子 获利了结 100 70 113 6 80 20 5/29/2026 做多美债 2年期 提前平仓 4.15 3.75 4.22 6 4.15 0 4/13/2026 做多美欧 10s30s 盒子 止损 14 30 7.5 3 8 -7 4/8/2026 3s30s 陡峭化 美债 止损 105 130 97 9 97 -8 1/28/2026 3m 2s5s 陡峭化 获利了结到期 -9 30 -20 3 0 9 9/29/2025 20s30s 陡峭化 美债 止损 3 15 -2 12 -2 -5 3/12/2026 做多美债 2年期 止损 3.75 3.60 3.85 6 3.85 -10 3/2/2026 2Y - 10Y 美元陡峭化 止损 56.50 85.00 46 6 46.00 -11 12/10/2025 美国 5年期零息通胀互换 获利了结 2.42 2.70 2.3 6 2.66 24 2/25/2026 收取六月FOMC OIS 止损 3.54 3.45 3.59 3 3.59 -5 1/16/2026 3s30s 互换利差趋平 获利了结 -43 -58 -35 6 -54 11 11/18/2025 美国 3s30s 互换利差趋平 获利了结 -47.75 -58 -39 6 -54 6 2/25/2026 做空 5s 基于美国 2s5s10s 提前平仓 -29 -16 -34 6 -31.30 -2 1/16/2026 3s10s 陡峭化 美债 获利了结 55 80 45 9 60 5 7/30/2025 3s10s 陡峭化 美债 获利了结 47 80 42 9 58.00 11 1/16/2026 收取三月FOMC OIS 止损 3.59 3.39 3.62 2 3.62 -3 12/18/2025 做空 5s 基于美国 2s5s10s 获利了结 -28 -15 -35 6 -17.00 11 净值: 46 已平仓波动率 日期 交易想法 状态 成本/100m 百万 目标 止损 期限(月) 平仓水平 表现 11/18/2025 美国 1y1y 接收阶梯 带 1x1.5 支付利差 目标达到 15.00 20.00 11.00 6 23.00 8 11/18/2025 美国 3m 1s2s 牛市陡峭化 获利了结 7 20 -5 3 12 5 净值: 13

美洲纵横 8 拉丁美洲亮点 巴西——卢拉之子的腐败丑闻影响民调,但卢拉仍是热门人选 卢拉之子卢林哈因涉嫌在三起独立调查中存在影响力兜售和腐败行为,正对其父的总统竞选民调造成影响。第二轮投票民调一直在收紧。大约三个月前,卢拉领先弗拉维奥·博索纳罗6-7%。现在他的领先优势已压缩至1-3%。鉴于多数民调的误差幅度在3%左右,可以说选举现已陷入胶着。卢拉部署了多条防御线。第一,他声称当局应继续调查其子,若其子犯罪则应接受司法审判。但他坚称儿子无辜。第二,在多个州与中间派政党结成政治和选举联盟。第三,在过往曾反对总统的国会领袖支持下,推动改革议程。该议程包括民众欢迎的措施,如缩短每周工作时间、取消低值进口关税。还包括企业界所期盼的措施,如制定国家关键矿产政策以满足国内需求,以及为数据中心设立特别税收制度。民调收紧反映了卢林哈事件的影响。但不幸的是,弗拉维奥仍被认为缺乏经验。因此,Polymarket和Kalshi继续显示卢拉胜选概率约为60%,这并不令人意外。 哥伦比亚——预算初步看法 政府向国会提交了修订后的2026预算提案,更重要的是,提交了2027预算提案。我们仍缺乏大量信息,因此请将此视为初步意见。据彭博和路透报道,修订后的2026财政赤字为GDP的7.2%。这高于佩特罗原先计划的略超5%的水平,但低于财政部长戈麦斯初步表示的7.8%。其中包括约GDP的1.3%(COP 21.9万亿)的政府支出削减。对于2027,,财政赤字目标为GDP的9.4%。由于地震改变了所有情况,很难进行比较。政府不会增税。巨大的财政努力将完全来自削减支出。这是好消息。然而,降低财政赤字的路径不会在2027,开始,这在意料之中,因为大部分重建工作很可能在那一年对财政账户产生影响。尽管如此,我们也认为重建工作将影响2028,的预算,但我们对此尚未掌握足够信息。财政整顿将被推迟,因为重建工作叠加在本身已庞大的历史性财政赤字之上10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 哥伦比亚:预算余额(占GDP比重) 资料来源:Natixis, Haver

纵观美洲 9 那么,这是正面还是负面?我认为总体上是正面的,因为政府在削减开支方面做出了巨大努力。然而,2026 和 2027 的财政赤字确实很大,债务占GDP的比重可能会上升,主要是在 2027,,从目前的约占GDP的 61% 开始。由于重建努力,2027 和 2028 的经济可能会强劲增长。这一点很关键,因为它意味着增长构成将从政府支出转向投资。墨西哥——墨西哥央行持续发出 6.50% 的信号,但其下一步行动可能是什么?季度通胀报告在预测方面几乎没有意外。与市场其他机构一样,墨西哥央行在强劲的 Q2 数据之后,将 2026 的GDP预测上调至同比 1.5%,此前为 1.1%。它继续预计通胀将在 2 年的货币政策视野内趋近 3.0% 的目标。我们刚刚将12月 2026 和 2027 的CPI预测上调至 4.0%,此前约为 3.5%,原因是厄尔尼诺现象。墨西哥央行将其对 2026 和 2027 的预测分别维持在 3.5% 和 3.0%。说实话,这不是大的偏差。即使墨西哥央行错了,那也可能是因为供给侧冲击。我们基本同意墨西哥央行的观点,即通胀压力将继续缓解。墨西哥——墨西哥央行对总体通胀(西班牙语中的“General”)和核心通胀(“Subyacente”)的预测 资料来源:墨西哥央行 对我们来说,更难的问题是墨西哥央行的下一步行动。当然,我们的预测是墨西哥央行将在 2027 财年 H1 期间将政策利率维持在 6.5%。但墨西哥央行倾向于降息还是加息?答案取决于墨西哥的增长、通胀路径、墨西哥比索和美联储。GDP增长正在复苏,这是好消息。坏消息是,由于投资下降,潜在GDP似乎也在下降。我们认为,在投资开始下降之前,潜在GDP约为 2.0%,而现在则在 1.0% 和 2.0% 之间。增长回升显然降低了降息的空间,但我们认为产出缺口远未转正。简而言之,即使增长复苏,墨西哥央行仍有降息空间。通胀压力正在下降,但由于厄尔尼诺现象,通胀压力将在 Q4 2026 和 Q1 2027 上升。这一点很重要,因为大部分反通胀过程来自非核心通胀,尤其是农产品价格。此外,鉴于财政空间紧张,政府减少汽油补贴的可能性可能会增加通胀压力。这两个因素减少了墨西哥央行的自由度,但前提是这些通胀压力污染其他价格和/或通胀预期。我们对美联储的看法是,它将在未来几个季度将政策利率维持在 3.75%。然而,经济正在放缓,通胀压力正在缓和。我们的观点显然会在杰克逊霍尔会议之后以及随着宏观变量的演变而改变。但很明显,市场一直在下调已消化的加息预期,从大约四次加息 25 bp 个基点降至不到两次。这一趋势支持了这样一种观点,即墨西哥央行的下一步行动可能是降息,而不是加息。

美洲纵横 10 最后,墨西哥比索目前过于强势。我们的公允价值BEER模型显示,比索较宏观经济基本面所支撑的水平大约强了21%。这或许是墨西哥央行下调政策利率的最有力论据。需要明确的是,我们认为墨西哥央行将在未来6个季度内维持政策利率在6.50%不变。然而,我们倾向于降息,尤其是在美国经济增长持续放缓且市场完全消化加息预期的情景下。

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By receiving this document, you confirm that you are aware of the laws in Colombia relating to the promotion and marketing of financial services products and you warrant and represent that you will not pass on or utilise the information contained in this document in a manner that could constitute a breach of such laws by Natixis, its affiliates or any other person. Any securities mentioned in this document have not been and will not be registered with the National Register of Securities ("Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores") maintained by the Colombian Financial Superintendency ("Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia") and may not be publicly offered or sold in Colombia. This information does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to enter into any agreement, or to purchase or subscribe any securities. The information on the following pages is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice or any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any of the funds or securities mentioned. Prospective investors should take appropriate professional advice before making any investment decision. Bolivia : Natixis is not authorized to conduct in Bolivia activities reserved by law for financial intermediation entities and/or brokerage firms. The products/services offered will be provided from Natixis's offices outside of Bolivia. Chile : This communication and any accompanying information (the "Materials") are intended solely for informational purposes and do not constitute (and should not be interpreted to constitute) the selling, or conducting of business with respect to such products or services in Chile (this "Jurisdiction"), or the conducting of any brokerage, banking or other similarly regulated activities in this Jurisdiction. Natixis ("Bank") is not registered (or intended to be registered) in this Jurisdiction. The Materials are private, confidential and are sent by the Bank only for the exclusive use of the addressee. The Materials must not be publicly distributed and any use of the Materials by anyone other than the addressee is not authorized. The addressee is required to comply with all applicable laws in this Jurisdiction, including, without limitation, tax laws and exchange control regulations, if any. The services do not include the offer or intermediation of any securities. Additionally, the Bank will not be liable for investment decisions made by the client based on the information derived or obtain from the Bank's materials. UK : In the UK, Natixis SA is authorised by L'Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Germany : Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland is subject to a limited form of regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) with regards to the conduct of its business in Germany under the right of establishment there. The transfer / distribution of this document in Germany is performed by / under the responsibility of Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland. Spain: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Spain and the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Spain. Italy: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Italy and the CONSOB (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Italy. Japan: Natixis Tokyo Branch is authorized in Japan by the Financial Service Agency as a Bank. Natixis Japan Securities Co., Ltd. (NJS) is a Financial Instruments Business Operator (Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 2527 and a Money Lender (Tokyo Governor (4) No. 31548), supervised by the Financial Services Agency. NJS is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. This document is intended solely for distribution to Professional Investors as defined in Article 2.31 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Hong Kong: In Hong Kong, Natixis is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the “SFC”) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) and Type 6 (advising on Corporate Finance) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (“SFO”). This document has not been approved by the SFC nor has a copy of this document been registered by the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, unless specified otherwise. The investments contained herein may or may not be authorised by the SFC. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the investments contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. The investments may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong, by means of any document, other than (i) to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO, or (ii) in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32 of the Laws of Hong Kong)(the “C(WUMP)O”) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the C(WUMP)O. No person shall issue or possess for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the investments, which to his knowledge is or contains an invitation to the public of Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the applicable laws and rules of Hong Kong) other than with respect to investments which are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong or only to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO. This document is not and should not be construed as Natixis (or any affiliate or anyone else) offering or holding itself out as being willing or able to provide any service or to carry on any activity which it is not licensed to provide or carry on in Hong Kong. Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: Natixis Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. If this document is distributed in Singapore, this document is intended solely for distribution to Institutional Investors, Accredited Investors and Expert Investors as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. People’s Republic of China: In Mainland China, Natixis Shanghai branch and Natixis Beijing branch are regulated in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”, which, for such purposes, does not include the Hong Kong or Macau Specifical Administrative Regions or Taiwan) by National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the engagement of banking business. This document is intended solely for distribution to investors of the PRC who are qualified/authorized under the laws of the People’s Republic of China to engage in the purchase of Product of the type being offered or sold. PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsolicited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Financial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 7月PCE环比上升0.2%(同比3.7%),略高于共识,核心PCE符合预期(环比0.2%,同比3.3%)。结合收入和支出及GDP强于预期,数据略偏鹰派。
  • 财政部回购公告引入显著不确定性,增加期限溢价,但Natixis对长端保持中性,此前在公告前一天刚转为中性。
  • Natixis维持5年期美债多头(入场4.38,目标4.15)和3s10s互换利差趋平交易,预期前端利差跑赢长端。
  • 巴西卢拉领先优势从6-7%收窄至1-3%,但Polymarket/Kalshi仍隐含约60%胜率。
  • 哥伦比亚2026年修订财政赤字为GDP的7.2%,支出削减1.3%的GDP,但2027年赤字目标为9.4%,债务占GDP比重将从61%上升。
  • 预计Banxico在2027年上半年维持6.50%的利率,但鉴于墨西哥比索过强和美国增长放缓,Natixis倾向降息。
  • 30年期互换利差相对公允价值约高5.5个基点,10年期利差在2026年数据下接近公允价值。
  • Natixis长期仍看空长端,因期限溢价逆风加剧。
风险
  • 财政部可能在非周期时间宣布更多回购,增加不确定性和期限溢价。
  • 8月CPI数据可能意义重大,改变对美联储的预期。
  • 厄尔尼诺可能在2026年Q4和2027年Q1推高墨西哥通胀,限制Banxico降息空间。
  • 如果Lulinha丑闻升级,巴西大选民调可能进一步收紧。
  • 哥伦比亚巨额财政赤字(占GDP 7.2%和9.4%)可能对市场构成压力。
  • 比索高估可能急剧修正,影响Banxico的政策路径。