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法国外贸银行 · Hadrien CAMATTE · 2026/08/28

法国仍是欧元区公共支出排名第二的国家

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营销传播:本文件为营销演示材料。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求;且不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的约束。28年2026月 欧洲、中东及非洲宏观洞察 法国仍是欧元区公共支出排名第二的国家 2025,年,法国公共支出占GDP比重在欧元区排名第二,仅次于芬兰,为GDP的57.3%。尽管由于德国公共支出上升,法德差距持续收窄,但与西班牙及欧元区整体相比,该差距仍相对稳定。深入分析2000至2024(最新可得年份)间按COFOG(政府职能分类)划分的数据,可以发现欧洲各国公共支出激增,主要受医疗保健和社会保护支出上升推动。然而,增速差异显著:社会保护支出在德国仅上升+0.5个百分点,在法国上升+2.8个百分点,而意大利上升+4.5个百分点,西班牙则大幅上升+6.0个百分点。尤其值得注意的是,法国的养老金支出(2024年占GDP的13.4%)仍是其社会保护支出与同类国家差距的主要驱动因素。实际上,截至2024,年,法国养老金支出在欧元区排名第四,仅次于芬兰、奥地利和意大利。公共支出负担——尤其是社会保障——无疑将成为法国总统竞选活动的焦点。这在八月26,日至2026日雇主协会夏季会议上的首次候选人辩论中已显而易见(见法国政治:REF会后通讯)。撰写: Hadrien CAMATTE 电话:+33 1 58 55 39 43 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com Théa BARTOLETTI thea.bartoletti@natixis.com 更多内容请访问我们的网站

欧洲、中东及非洲宏观洞察 2 欧元区公共支出:法国在2025年维持第二高排名 法国公共赤字在2025年降至GDP的-5.1%(图1),低于2024年的-5.8%。尽管出现边际回升,法国赤字仍是欧元区最高,仅次于比利时的-5.2%。以占GDP比重衡量,法国在2025年录得欧元区第二大公共支出(图2),仅落后于芬兰(占GDP的57.3%),这一水平接近疫情前的观察值。 图1:公共赤字(占GDP%) 图2:公共支出(占GDP%) 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 欧元区 德国 西班牙 法国 意大利 来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行企业与投资银行 来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行企业与投资银行 与德国的支出差距自2014年以来有所收窄(图3),而与意大利的差距则有所扩大: ► 德国的支出结构性上升:公共支出在2000–2018期间平均占GDP的46.0%,在2024年上升至49.4%,并在2025年达到50.5%。 ► 相反,意大利公共支出占GDP比重在2020,年触及56.7%的峰值后逐渐下降,回到接近疫情前水平(平均占GDP的48.5%),在2024,年降至50.4%,随后在2025年小幅回升至51.2%。 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 欧元区 德国 西班牙 法国 意大利

EMEA宏观洞察 3 图 3:法国的超额公共支出(占GDP的百分点) 图 4:公共支出差距的构成(2000–2024)(占GDP的百分点) 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 欧元区 德国 西班牙 意大利 资料来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行企业与投资银行部 注释:法国的公共支出在6.7年比德国高出GDP的2025个百分点 资料来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行企业与投资银行部 自2000,年以来持续上升,主要受福利支出推动 使用欧盟统计局COFOG(政府职能分类)数据(截至2024年的公共支出按职能分类数据),2000年至2024年间支出的变化反映在(图 4)中: ► 所有主权同行的公共支出均有所上升:德国(占GDP的+1.4个百分点)、西班牙(+6.4个百分点)、法国(+4.3个百分点)和意大利(+4.0个百分点)的总支出均有所增加。 ► 这一扩张主要由社会保障和医疗保健驱动1:具体而言,社会保障支出在德国增长了+0.5个百分点,西班牙增长了+6.0个百分点,法国增长了+2.8个百分点,意大利增长了+4.5个百分点。 ► 法国和德国在此期间将国防和公共安全支出提高了GDP的0.3个百分点。 ► 法国和意大利削减了一般公共服务支出2,但这些削减不足以抵消其他部门成本的上升。 在2023年至2024年(最新可用数据)期间,公共支出增加占GDP的+0.2个百分点,主要受社会保障推动,而经济事务支出下降(图 5)3。 1 医疗保健支出包括医疗产品、医院服务、公共卫生服务以及健康相关研发,而社会保障支出包括养老金、疾病和残疾福利、失业救济、住房支持以及家庭津贴。 2 一般公共服务包括国家的整体行政和运营成本,包括公务员薪酬、公共债务利息支付以及政府机构的制度性运行成本。 3 “经济事务”类别涵盖通信、能源、采矿和制造业以及运输等部门。

EMEA宏观洞察 4 图表 5:2023至2024年间公共支出变动分解(占GDP的百分点)来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis CIB 各国之间的支出差距在2023至2024年间如何演变?福利支出仍是分歧的主要驱动力 按功能划分的COFOG细分(仅提供至2024,见附录图表10)证实,医疗和社会保障仍是2024年4法国支出溢价的主要贡献因素。这与我们2023的分析一致(参见我们的报告《法国,欧元区公共支出第二高:与其他国家的差异从何而来?》)。在2023至2024,年间,法国与欧元区和西班牙的支出差距几乎未变(占GDP的+0.1个百分点)。相反,与德国的差距从8.6个百分点收窄至7.5个百分点,主要受德国支出大幅上升推动(占GDP的+1.3个百分点,而法国为+0.2个百分点)。与此同时,与意大利的差距显著扩大,从+3.3个百分点增至+6.6个百分点,反映出意大利公共支出急剧下降(年内-3.5个百分点)(图表3)。法国在医疗(图表6)和社会保护(图表7)方面的溢价具有高度结构性:自2000,年以来,法国在这些类别的支出一直超过所有同行经济体。► 德国医疗曲线的变化反映了2023至2024年间支出增长更为急剧(德国为+0.2个百分点,法国为+0.1个百分点)。► 与德国及更广泛欧元区的社会保护差距缩小,源于其支出上升(德国占GDP的+0.9个百分点,欧元区平均为+0.5个百分点)。德国受到2022至2023能源危机的严重打击,导致经济萎缩(2023年GDP增长为-0.9%,2024年为-0.5%)和高通胀(2023年平均为5.9%,2024年为2.3%)。4 然而,某些差异需要加以说明。公共支出的范围因国家而异,尤其是在公共部门对医疗和养老金福利的覆盖方面。例如,法国的医疗支出包含很大一部分个人护理和医院服务。相反,在德国,这些服务的很大一部分由私人保险公司资助。+0.2 点

EMEA宏观洞察 5 因此,名义工资大幅上涨。这自动传导至养老金支付,推高了社会保障支出。图6:法国超额健康支出的演变(占GDP的百分比)图7:法国超额社会保障支出的演变(占GDP的百分比)来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行来源:欧盟统计局,法国外贸银行养老金支出在结构上仍然较高,推动了社会保障支出的差距 对社会保障支出的细分显示,养老金支出是这一差距的主要驱动因素(见附录,图11)。在2024,年,法国在养老金上的支出占GDP的比例比欧元区平均水平高出2.5个百分点。只有意大利在养老金上的支出高于法国(占GDP的+0.6个百分点),这得益于其更老龄化的人口结构(图9)。事实上,意大利的抚养比(65岁以上人口与15至64岁人口的比值)预计在2025,年将是欧盟最高的,达到39%。这种养老金支出溢价也是结构性的(图8),因为自2000年以来,法国的支出一直高于其同行(意大利除外)。在2010至2024期间,法国的养老金支出平均占GDP的13.4%,而欧元区和德国分别为10.7%和9.3%。 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 欧元区 德国 西班牙 意大利 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 欧元区 德国 西班牙 意大利

EMEA宏观洞察 6 图表 8:法国养老金支出差距的演变(占GDP的百分点) 图表 9:抚养比的演变(65岁及以上人口相对于15–64年龄组) 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis CIB 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis CIB 结论 法国公共支出占GDP的比重在结构上仍高于几乎所有其他欧元区国家,这一趋势在2024和2025再次得到确认。具体而言,法国的突出之处在于: ► 公共赤字高企:2025,年赤字占GDP的-5.1%,此前2024年为-5.8%。2025,年,该赤字在欧元区排名第二,仅次于比利时(-5.2%)。尽管政府为2026,年设定了5.0%的公共赤字目标,但这一目标依然雄心勃勃。鉴于中东战争引发的增长下修以及偿债成本的快速上升(见《法国公共债务上升:账单到期》),实现这一目标将面临挑战。 ► 社会支出的庞大规模:我们基于2024 COFOG数据按类别进行的分析显示,医疗保健和社会保护是法国与其他主要欧洲经济体公共支出差距的主要驱动因素。2024,年,养老金支出占GDP的13.4%,是法国社会保护中最大的组成部分。它们是该国高公共支出的关键贡献者,鉴于法国的人口结构比大多数欧洲同行更为有利,这一现象尤为引人注目。毫无疑问,公共支出的财政负担——尤其是社会保障体系——将在即将到来的法国总统选举中成为焦点。这一点在8月27,日2026雇主联合会夏季大学候选人首场辩论中已显而易见(见《法国政治:来自REF的明信片》)。 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 欧元区 德国 西班牙 意大利 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 德国 西班牙 法国 意大利

EMEA宏观洞察 7 附录 图表 10:2024年相对于法国的公共支出差距分解(占GDP的百分点) 法国–欧元区:差距7.6个百分点 法国–德国:差距7.5个百分点 法国–西班牙:差距11.5个百分点 法国–意大利:差距6.6个百分点 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis CIB

EMEA宏观洞察 8 图表 11:2024年相对于法国的社会保障支出差距分解(占GDP的百分点) 法国–欧元区:差距3.5个百分点 法国–德国:差距3.2个百分点 法国–西班牙:差距4.9个百分点 法国–意大利:差距2.4个百分点 资料来源:欧盟统计局,Natixis CIB

EMEA宏观洞察 9 企业及投资银行研究主管 宏观与金融机构研究主管 Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE +33 1 58 55 13 09 +33 1 58 55 99 93 jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com 欧洲宏观研究主管 金融机构 Alain DURRE, Ph.D. Bouchra RHAJBAL +33 1 58 55 60 49 +33 1 58 55 79 93 alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com 法国、比利时、欧元区 德国、欧元区 担保债券 Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY +33 1 58 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 1 58 55 05 81 hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com 西班牙、意大利、希腊、葡萄牙、欧元区 通胀、宏观建模、欧元区 Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA +33 1 58 55 99 90 +33 1 58 55 62 71 jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com CEMEA 英国、北欧、房地产 Inna MUFTEEVA, CFA Sylwia HUBAR , Ph.D. +33 1 58 55 52 04 +33 1 58 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com 助理经济学家 Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com 数据库 Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON +33 1 58 55 14 76 +33 1 58 55 99 92 +33 1 58 55 12 65 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com Andriat RAKOTOVAO +33 1 58 55 14 92 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao @natixis.com

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USA : Natixis, a foreign bank and broker-dealer, makes this report available solely for distribution in the United States to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. securities Exchange Act of 1934. This document shall not be distributed to any other persons in the United States. All major U.S. institutional investors receiving this document shall not distribute the original nor a copy thereof to any other person in the United States. Natixis is a National Futures Association (NFA) member in the United States and has filed its Swap Dealer registration per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulations, and is registered as a Security-Based Swap Dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Please refer to the Natixis website and applicable final legal documentation relating to the relevant product for additional risk disclosures. Investors are exposed to the default risk of the issuer and/or the guarantor as applicable. For any swap products, please also refer to Dodd-Frank Act - Compliance – Natixis https://www.natixis.com/natixis/en/dodd-frank-act-rpaz5_115246.html. Structured securities, options, futures and other derivatives are complex instruments and may involve a high degree of risk. Before entering into any such transactions, please ensure that you have read and understood the Options Clearing Corporation’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) available at: http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp . THIS COMMUNICATION IS NOT A “RESEARCH REPORT” AS DEFINED IN CFTC REGULATIONS 1.71 and 23.605 AND IS TO BE DISTRIBUTED ONLY TO INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS. THIS COMMUNICATION HAS BEEN GENERATED BY ONE OR MORE EMPLOYEES OF NATIXIS AND IS BEING CONVEYED TO YOU EITHER (I) COMMENTARY ON ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, OR MARKET CONDITIONS AND STATISTICAL SUMMARIES OF MULTIPLE COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL DATA, WHICH MAY INCLUDE LISTS OF CURRENT RATINGS, AND ON THE BASIS OF WHICH NO INVESTMENT DECISION SHOULD BE MADE AS THIS MATERIAL IS CONDENSED, NOT COMPREHENSIVE, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE ALL RISK FACTORS OR OTHER MATTERS THAT MAY BE MATERIAL, OR (II) A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION, BUT IS NOT A BINDING OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AS OF THE DATE OF THIS COMMUNICATION AND ARE NOT TO BE RELIED ON AS AUTHORITATIVE, AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF NATIXIS OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES OR SUBSIDIARIES, OR THEIR RESPECTIVE OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, CONTRACTORS, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES, SUCCESSORS AND ASSIGNS. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ANY VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN MAY NOT BE OBJECTIVE OR INDEPENDENT OF THE AUTHOR OR OTHER NATIXIS (AND ITS AFFILIATES) SALES AND TRADING DESKS, WHO ARE ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS IN THE MARKETS, INVESTMENTS, OR STRATEGIES REFERRED TO IN THIS COMMUNICATION. THEY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS COMMUNICATION IS BASED ON PUBLIC INFORMATION AND SHALL NOT BE USED NOR CONSIDERED AS AN UNDERTAKING FROM NATIXIS. NATIXIS TAKES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS OF THE COMMUNICATION. NEITHER THE AUTHORS NOR NATIXIS HAVE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR OTHERWISE NOTIFY THE RECIPIENT IN THE EVENT ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, INCLUDING ANY OPINION OR VIEW, CHANGES OR BECOMES INACCURATE. NATIXIS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY FINANCIAL LOSS, DAMAGES, OR ANY DECISION TAKEN ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION DISCLOSED IN THIS COMMUNICATION AND NATIXIS DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY ADVICE, INCLUDING IN CASE OF INVESTMENT SERVICES. THIS COMMUNICATION IS COMMUNICATED TO EACH RECIPIENT FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document does not constitute a financial analysis or research report and has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Accordingly, there are no prohibitions on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Opinions expressed may differ from the opinions expressed by other business units of Natixis. Natixis and each of its respective affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this material or reliance on the information contained herein. However, this shall not restrict, exclude or limit any duty or liability to any person under any applicable laws or regulations of any jurisdiction which may not lawfully be disclaimed. No representation or assurance is provided by Natixis with respect to whether any product or financial instrument referenced in this document meets requirements or criteria established under any regulatory, industry or other rules and standards related to climate, sustainability or environmental matters. Canada : In Canada, this document may only be transmitted to “permitted clients” as defined in National Instrument 31-103. No further distribution is permitted. Distribution to retail investors is prohibited. In Canada, Natixis operates through Natixis Canada Branch, a Foreign Bank Branch (Schedule 3 – Lending only). Natixis Securities Americas LLC is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province but operates under the International Dealer Exemption in each province. Natixis S.A. is not a registered broker-dealer in any Canadian province and operates under the International Dealer Exemption in Quebec and Ontario. Any securities transaction or other offer, sale, or solicitation will be structured to be in compliance with such exemption. Mexico : As per your request, this information is delivered to you, which strictly pertains to activities performed by Natixis, a Foreign Financial Entity in its country of origin, such institution is herein represented by its Representation Office in Mexico. This information is being delivered to you for information purposes only. Please note that the Representation Office in Mexico is prevented from negotiating, executing, or participating in (i) operations related to listed derivatives; and (ii) securing funds from the general public in Mexico. Brazil: This communication and the matters discussed therein have not been and will not be issued, placed, distributed or offered in the Brazilian market. Documents relating to this communication, as well as information contained therein may not be supplied to the public in Brazil nor be used in connection with any offer for subscription or sale of financial products or services to the public in Brazil. This communication will not be offered in Brazil, except in circumstances which do not constitute any breach or noncompliance with the Brazilian applicable legislation. Persons wishing to acquire or invest in any debt or equity interest in Brazil should consult with their own counsel as to the applicability of registration requirements or any exemption therefrom. This material is only intended for persons who are eligible investors residing in Brazil, which are considered to be Professional Investors (Investidores Profissionais), as designated by the applicable regulation, mainly the CVM Resolution No. 30 from the 11th of May 2021. Argentina : Products/services included in the presentation have not been and will not be publicly issued, placed, distributed, offered, or registered in Argentine Securities Commission (Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV). Neither this nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any general offering to the Disclaimer EMEA M ACRO I NSIGHTS research.natixis.com public within Argentina. Any Argentine resident who acquires any products or services will do so under his/her own responsibility under the terms of a private offering to him/her, from outside of Argentina. Panama : This document and its content are for information purposes and shall not be interpreted as banking or financial intermediation, business solicitation and/or public offering of any kind. Natixis is duly authorized by the relevant authorities to carry out banking activities in the United States. Any and all services provided by Natixis are provided on a cross border basis outside of Panama. Natixis is not authorized by the Superintendence of Banks nor the Superintendence of the Securities Market to carry out any activities in Panama.The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice or credit analysis with respect to the material presented, and the information and/or documents contained in this material do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to offer. Peru : The products or information discussed here have not been registered under the Peruvian Securities Market Law (Supreme Decree N° 093-2002-EF) or before the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV). There will be no public offering of the shares in Peru. The SMV has not reviewed the information provided to the investor. This material is only for the exclusive use of institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution. 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By receiving this document, you confirm that you are aware of the laws in Colombia relating to the promotion and marketing of financial services products and you warrant and represent that you will not pass on or utilise the information contained in this document in a manner that could constitute a breach of such laws by Natixis, its affiliates or any other person. Any securities mentioned in this document have not been and will not be registered with the National Register of Securities ("Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores") maintained by the Colombian Financial Superintendency ("Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia") and may not be publicly offered or sold in Colombia. This information does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to enter into any agreement, or to purchase or subscribe any securities. The information on the following pages is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice or any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any of the funds or securities mentioned. Prospective investors should take appropriate professional advice before making any investment decision. Bolivia : Natixis is not authorized to conduct in Bolivia activities reserved by law for financial intermediation entities and/or brokerage firms. The products/services offered will be provided from Natixis's offices outside of Bolivia. Chile : This communication and any accompanying information (the "Materials") are intended solely for informational purposes and do not constitute (and should not be interpreted to constitute) the selling, or conducting of business with respect to such products or services in Chile (this "Jurisdiction"), or the conducting of any brokerage, banking or other similarly regulated activities in this Jurisdiction. Natixis ("Bank") is not registered (or intended to be registered) in this Jurisdiction. The Materials are private, confidential and are sent by the Bank only for the exclusive use of the addressee. The Materials must not be publicly distributed and any use of the Materials by anyone other than the addressee is not authorized. The addressee is required to comply with all applicable laws in this Jurisdiction, including, without limitation, tax laws and exchange control regulations, if any. The services do not include the offer or intermediation of any securities. Additionally, the Bank will not be liable for investment decisions made by the client based on the information derived or obtain from the Bank's materials. UK : In the UK, Natixis SA is authorised by L'Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR), supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Germany : Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland is subject to a limited form of regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) with regards to the conduct of its business in Germany under the right of establishment there. The transfer / distribution of this document in Germany is performed by / under the responsibility of Natixis Zweigniederlassung Deutschland. Spain: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Spain and the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Spain. Italy: Natixis is regulated by Bank of Italy and the CONSOB (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa) for the conduct of its business under the right of establishment in Italy. Japan: Natixis Tokyo Branch is authorized in Japan by the Financial Service Agency as a Bank. Natixis Japan Securities Co., Ltd. (NJS) is a Financial Instruments Business Operator (Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 2527 and a Money Lender (Tokyo Governor (4) No. 31548), supervised by the Financial Services Agency. NJS is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. This document is intended solely for distribution to Professional Investors as defined in Article 2.31 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Hong Kong: In Hong Kong, Natixis is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the “SFC”) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) and Type 6 (advising on Corporate Finance) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) (“SFO”). This document has not been approved by the SFC nor has a copy of this document been registered by the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, unless specified otherwise. The investments contained herein may or may not be authorised by the SFC. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the investments contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. The investments may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong, by means of any document, other than (i) to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO, or (ii) in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32 of the Laws of Hong Kong)(the “C(WUMP)O”) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the C(WUMP)O. No person shall issue or possess for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the investments, which to his knowledge is or contains an invitation to the public of Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the applicable laws and rules of Hong Kong) other than with respect to investments which are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong or only to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under the SFO. This document is not and should not be construed as Natixis (or any affiliate or anyone else) offering or holding itself out as being willing or able to provide any service or to carry on any activity which it is not licensed to provide or carry on in Hong Kong. Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: Natixis Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. If this document is distributed in Singapore, this document is intended solely for distribution to Institutional Investors, Accredited Investors and Expert Investors as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. People’s Republic of China: In Mainland China, Natixis Shanghai branch and Natixis Beijing branch are regulated in the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”, which, for such purposes, does not include the Hong Kong or Macau Specifical Administrative Regions or Taiwan) by National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange for the engagement of banking business. This document is intended solely for distribution to investors of the PRC who are qualified/authorized under the laws of the People’s Republic of China to engage in the purchase of Product of the type being offered or sold. PRC investors are responsible for verifying their eligibility to purchase the Product, obtaining all relevant approvals/licenses, verification and/or registrations themselves from relevant governmental authorities, and complying with all relevant applicable regulatory requirements under the PRC legal regime, including, but not limited to, all relevant foreign exchange regulations and/or outbound investment regulations. Taiwan: In Taiwan, Natixis Taipei Branch is authorized by the Financial Supervisory Commission as a commercial bank and is subject to its supervision. The Product may not be sold or offered to Taiwan resident investors or in Taiwan unless they are made available, (i) outside Taiwan for purchase by such investors outside Taiwan and/or (ii) investors are authorized to engage in the purchase of product in accordance with applicable laws. South Korea: In Korea, Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch is registered as a licensed financial investment business entity under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”) and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Services and Financial Services Commission. This document/communication is distributed by Natixis Asia Limited Seoul Branch in the republic of Korea to Professional Investor only and is not intended for investors in Korea who are not Professional Investor within the meaning of the Article 9(5) of the FSCMA and should not be passed on to any such persons. Some products or transactions described in this document/communication may not be authorized in Korea and may not be available to Korean investors. This document/communication is being provided in accordance with procedures required under applicable laws and regulations as well as internal control standards of Natixis Asia Limited, Seoul Branch. India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Natixis has set-up representative offices in India, Indonesia and Thailand. The activities of the representative offices are supervised by the Reserve Bank of India, the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Services Authority) and the Bank of Thailand respectively. Australia: Natixis Asia Limited is registered with the Securities and Futures Commission to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 5 (advising on futures contracts) regulated activities under the SFO. If this document is distributed in Hong Kong, this document is only to Professional Investors as defined in the SFO of Hong Kong and any rules made under the SFO. In Australia, Natixis has a wholly owned subsidiary, Natixis Australia Pty Limited ("NAPL"). NAPL is registered with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and holds an Australian Financial Services License (No. 317114) which enables NAPL to conduct its financial services business in Australia with "wholesale" clients. Details of the AFSL are available upon request Natixis S.A. is not an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Australian Banking Act 1959, nor is it regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Any references made to banking in the document refer to Natixis activities outside of Australia. United Arab Emirates: Natixis is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) for the conduct of its business in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). The document is being made available to the recipient with the understanding that it meets the DFSA definition of a Market Counterparty or Professional Client; the recipient is otherwise required to inform Natixis if this is not the case and return the document. In accordance with the Decision No (13/R.M) of 2021 on the Financial Activities Rulebook and Mechanisms of Adjustment of the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) (the SCA Rulebook), the products to which this document relates may only be promoted in the UAE (excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)) as follows: (i) to a person who meets the definition of a “professional investor” under the SCA Rulebook; or (ii) following a ‘reverse’ (i.e., unsolicited) enquiry by an investor. Further, this document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (including the DIFC and the ADGM) and is not intended to be a public offer. The SCA has not verified this document or other documents in connection with the products. Accordingly, the SCA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document. The SCA may not be held liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The products to which this document relates may be illiquid or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence on the products. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial advisor. The recipient also acknowledges and understands that neither the document nor its contents have been approved, licensed by or registered with any regulatory body or governmental agency in the GCC or Lebanon. Oman: In Oman, Natixis neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently, Natixis is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Financial Services Authority. This document has been prepared by Natixis. The information contained in this document is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 18/2019) or the Securities Law (Royal Decree 46/2022), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the conclusion of a contract for the sale or purchase of securities. Natixis does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which Natixis sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from Natixis and by receiving this document, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by Natixis understands, acknowledges and agrees that this document has not been approved by the CBO, the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. Natixis does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. This document has not been approved by the FSA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman, and no authorization, licence or approval has been received by Natixis from the FSA or any other regulatory authority in Oman, to market, offer, sell, or distribute the securities within Oman. Natixis does not advise persons or entities resident or based in Oman as to the appropriateness of investing in or purchasing or selling securities or other financial products. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. The recipient of this communication represents that it is a financial institution and/or is a sophisticated investor (as described in Article 139 of the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law) and that its officers/employees have such experience in business and financial matters that they are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of investments. Qatar: The investments described in this document have not been, and will not be, offered, sold or delivered at any time, directly or indirectly, in the State of Qatar in a manner that would constitute a public offering. This document has not been, and will not be, filed with, reviewed by or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets Authority or any other relevant Qatari authority. This document is intended for the original recipient only and should not be provided to any other person. It is not for general circulation in the State of Qatar and should not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Saudi Arabia: Natixis Saudi Arabia Investment Company, licensed and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (Number: 19205-31), located in Alfaisaliah Tower, 16th Floor, King Fahad Road, Riyadh – KSA. Turkey: Natixis is not licensed in Turkey to perform any banking/capital market activity. No information in this document is provided for the purpose of offering, marketing and sale by any means of any capital market instruments in the Republic of Turkey. Therefore, this document may not be considered as an offer made or to be made to residents of the Republic of Turkey. Accordingly, neither this document nor any other material may be utilized in connection with any offering to the public within the Republic of Turkey without the prior approval of the Turkish Capital Markets Board. However, according to Article 15 (d) (ii) of the Decree No. 32 there is no restriction on the purchase or sale of products in this document by residents of the Republic of Turkey, provided that: they purchase or sell such products in the financial markets outside of the Republic of Turkey; and such sale and purchase is made through banks, and/or licensed brokerage firms in the Republic of Turkey. Links from or to web sites outside Natixis sites are meant for convenience only. Natixis does not review, endorse, approve or control, and is not responsible for any sites linked from or to Natixis sites, the content of those sites, the third parties named therein, or their products and services. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and Natixis will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. No endorsement or approval of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressed or implied by these materials.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 2025年法国公共支出占GDP比重为57.3%,在欧元区排名第二,仅次于芬兰。
  • 医疗保健和社会保护是法国与其它国家支出差距的主要驱动因素。
  • 2024年养老金支出占GDP的13.4%,是社会保护中最大组成部分,也是结构性关键因素。
  • 公共赤字从2024年的-5.8%略降至2025年的-5.1%,但仍为欧元区第二高。
  • 与德国差距在2024年收窄至7.5个百分点,主要由于德国支出大幅上升。
  • 财政负担和社会保障将成为法国总统竞选的核心议题。
风险
  • 中东战争导致的增长下修可能使2026年5.0%的赤字目标更难实现。
  • 偿债成本快速上升可能加大财政压力。
  • 尽管人口老龄化,养老金支出可能仍保持高位。