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法国外贸银行 · Benito BERBER · 2026/08/28

Natixis 哥伦比亚展望

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Natixis 哥伦比亚展望 八月 2026 Benito BERBER Benito.berber@natixis.com

哥伦比亚 2

哥伦比亚:2026 展望 3 地震:全国性影响、严重破坏和代价高昂的重建。• 地震:8月 10, 日 2026,乔科省发生 Mw 7.4 级地震(震中靠近圣何塞德尔帕尔马)——这是多年来全国感受到的最强地震,全国所有 32 个省以及厄瓜多尔、委内瑞拉和巴拿马均有震感。• 伤亡:至少 331 人死亡,4,600 人受伤,240 人失踪。• 影响范围:全国 15 个省的 472 个市受到影响——约占哥伦比亚领土的三分之一。受灾最严重的地区:卡利、佩雷拉、基布多、马尼萨莱斯、亚美尼亚、布埃纳文图拉。• 结构性破坏:约 178,555 套房屋受损,31,540 套被毁,603 栋建筑倒塌;医院、学校、机场(佩雷拉)、道路、桥梁和供水系统受损。• 重建成本:政府的初步数字为 30 万亿比索(约合 $9.6 亿美元或占GDP的 1.9%),随后国家规划部(DNP)修正为最高 40 万亿比索(约合 $12.9 亿美元或占GDP的 2.5%),重建时间跨度为 5 至 6 年。独立机构的估计差异很大,从牛津经济研究院的 $990 亿至 $1.98 亿美元,到美国地质调查局接近 $40 亿美元的估计。

哥伦比亚:2026 展望 4 重建工作将导致财政赤字扩大。• 政府向国会提交了修订后的 2026 年预算提案,以及重要的 2027 年预算提案。我们还缺乏大量信息,因此请将此视为初步结果。• 2026 年修订后的财政赤字占GDP的 7.2%。这比佩特罗原先计划的略高于 5% 要多,但低于财政部长戈麦斯最初表示的 7.8%。其中包括约占GDP 1.3%(哥伦比亚比索 21.9 万亿)的政府支出削减。对于 2027, 年,财政赤字目标为占GDP的 9.4%。由于地震改变了一切,很难进行比较。政府不会增税。财政努力是巨大的,将完全来自支出削减。这是好消息。然而,降低财政赤字的路径不会从 2027, 年开始,这很合理,因为重建工作的主要部分可能会在那一年冲击财政账户。尽管如此,我们也认为重建工作将影响 2028, 年的预算,但我们还没有足够的信息。• 那么,这是正面还是负面?我们认为总体上是正面的,因为政府在削减开支方面做出了巨大努力。然而,2026 年和 2027 年的财政赤字确实很大,债务占GDP的比例可能会上升,主要是在 2027, 年,从现在的约 61% 上升。由于重建工作,2027 年和 2028 年经济可能会强劲增长。这是关键,因为它意味着增长构成将从政府支出转向投资。

哥伦比亚:监测 5 最新数据指向消费和增长放缓,但通胀数据有所改善。单位 3月-26 4月-26 5月-26 6月-26 7月-26 经济活动指数 3m%同比-年化 8.3% 8.5% 11.1% 2.2% - 零售销售 3m%同比-年化 24.7% 41.5% 19.8% 10.8% - 贸易条件季节调整,2000=100 137 132 138 127 121 失业率季节调整,期末 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 - 就业人数 3m变化,季节调整,千 128 201 265 215 - 工资总额同比% 9.8% 10.4% 10.9% 9.7% - 同比%,未经季节调整 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 6.0% 3m%同比-年化 12.8% 11.1% 8.4% 6.8% 4.2% 同比%,未经季节调整 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.3% 3m%同比-年化 13.4% 11.3% 8.4% 6.0% 4.1% 服务CPI 3m%同比-年化 13.4% 11.0% 8.9% 6.4% 4.7% 12m通胀预期 3m%同比-年化 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 当前商业状况 50+ = 增长 41.6 39.8 32.3 41.0 - 未来半年经济预期状况 50+ = 增长 32.1 30.7 33.2 46.9 - CPI 总体CPI 核心CPI

哥伦比亚:增长 6 由于重建工作,经济可能在2027和2028强劲增长。这一点至关重要,因为它意味着增长构成将从政府支出转向投资。增长预测 同比% 2027 XX% 2026 2025 来源:DANE,Haver,Natixis 2.8 2.9 2.6 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 12月-24 3月-25 6月-25 9月-25 12月-25 3月-26 6月-26 哥伦比亚:经济活动量指数 3m%同比-年化,季节调整 2010-2019 平均值

哥伦比亚:增长 7 尽管存在高度不确定性,国内需求已被证明具有韧性。来源:Haver,Natixis -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 3月-23 6月-23 9月-23 12月-23 3月-24 6月-24 9月-24 12月-24 3月-25 6月-25 9月-25 12月-25 3月-26 6月-26 哥伦比亚:对实际GDP增长的贡献 同比%,百分点 私人消费 政府消费 固定资本形成总额 出口 进口 残差包括库存变化 实际GDP

2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 2月-25 5月-25 8月-25 11月-25 2月-26 5月-26 8月-26 哥伦比亚:增长预期 同比%,季节调整 2026 2027 哥伦比亚:增长预期 8 对2026的增长预期在边际上有所下降。我们怀疑,随着经济学家将重建的影响纳入考量,他们的预期中位数将被上调。来源:Bloomberg,Natixis 2.5 2.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2026 2027 最新GDP增长预期 同比,%

哥伦比亚:需求 9 国内需求和投资在2026反弹。来源:DANE,Haver,Natixis 来源:DANE,Haver,Natixis -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 6月-23 12月-23 6月-24 12月-24 6月-25 12月-25 6月-26 哥伦比亚:固定资本形成总额 环比%,季节调整年化比率 固定资本形成总额 2010-2019 平均值 -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 6月-23 12月-23 6月-24 12月-24 6月-25 12月-25 6月-26 哥伦比亚:国内总需求 环比%,季节调整年化比率 国内需求 2010-2019 平均值

哥伦比亚:需求 10 伊朗战争后消费者支出下降,而工资总额增长保持韧性但有所放缓。来源:DANE,Haver,Natixis 来源:Haver,Natixis 工资总额按零售贸易中就业总人数/实际人均工资(指数)的同比%计算 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 4月-24 10月-24 4月-25 10月-25 4月-26 哥伦比亚:工资总额 同比%,季节调整 工资总额 2011-2019 平均值 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 9月-24 12月-24 3月-25 6月-25 9月-25 12月-25 3月-26 6月-26 哥伦比亚:消费 - 实际零售贸易 3m%变化-同比,季节调整 零售销售 2010-2019 平均值

哥伦比亚:劳动力市场 11 3月份,失业率降至二十年来的最低水平,这得益于劳动力参与率的下降。资料来源:DANE、Haver、Natixis 资料来源:Haver、Natixis 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 6月-24 10月-24 2月-25 6月-25 10月-25 2月-26 6月-26 哥伦比亚:失业率 EOP,经季节性调整,% 失业率 2010-2019 平均值 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 6月-24 12月-24 6月-25 12月-25 6月-26 哥伦比亚:就业人数 3 百万变动,期末值,经季节性调整,千

哥伦比亚:通胀 12 主要受最低工资上涨 23% 以及伊朗冲突影响,我们目前预测通胀率为 6.6%,在 2026, 年,高于目标区间。展望未来,厄尔尼诺现象可能在 2026 年末和 1 年上半年通过推高电价和食品价格,进一步推升通胀。通胀预测 同比% 2027 XX% 2026 2025 资料来源:Haver、Natixis 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:CPI 同比%,未经季节性调整 目标区间 IPCA 同比 6.6 5.1 5.1

哥伦比亚:通胀 13 通胀预期已有所下降,但仍高于目标水平。资料来源:DANE、Haver、Natixis 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 6月-24 12月-24 6月-25 12月-25 6月-26 哥伦比亚:通胀 同比%,未经季节性调整 总体 总体 - 2010-2019 平均值 核心 核心 - 2010-2019 平均值 服务业 服务业 - 2010-2019 平均值 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 6月-23 12月-23 6月-24 12月-24 6月-25 12月-25 6月-26 哥伦比亚:通胀预期 vs 目标 同比%,未经季节性调整 处于 11 百万 处于 23 百万 目标

哥伦比亚:汇率 14 汇率预测 期末值,兑美元 2027 XX% 2026 2025 公允价值 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Bloomberg、Natixis 哥伦比亚比索升值,而 3 百万波动率下降。 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:汇率和 3 百万波动率 3 百万 隐含波动率 - 左轴 汇率兑美元,期末值,右轴 公允价值偏离 BEER PPP BEER PPP 3750.36 3834.30 10% 12% 3150 3800 3818

8月-26 9月-26 10月-26 11月-26 12月-26 1月-27 2月-27 3月-27 4月-27 5月-27 6月-27 7月-27 8月-27 9月-27 Natixis 预测 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.75 11.50 11.50 11.25 市场定价 哥伦比亚:货币政策 15 我们现在倾向于将 12.00% 作为终端利率,部分原因是哥伦比亚比索在名义汇率和实际有效汇率(REER)方面均大幅升值。此外,货币政策立场已经具有限制性。政策利率预测 期末值,% 2027 XX% 2026 2025 资料来源:Haver、Natixis 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:政策利率路径 期末值,% 10.75 9.25 12.00

哥伦比亚:货币政策 16 资料来源:Bloomberg、Natixis -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:事前实际利率 vs. 中性区间 % 中性区间 事前实际利率

哥伦比亚:贸易 17 自 2013 年以来贸易余额一直为负,进口增速快于出口。贸易条件近期也有所下降。资料来源:DANE、BANREP、Haver、Natixis 资料来源:DANE、Haver、Natixis 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 哥伦比亚:贸易条件 同比% 和 2019=100, 经季节性调整 贸易条件,同比% - 左轴 2011-2019 平均值 贸易条件,2019=100 2010-2019 平均值 -30,000 -15,000 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:货物贸易 12 百万美元 总计,百万美元,经季节性调整 出口 进口 贸易余额

哥伦比亚:经常账户 18 在国内需求增长的背景下,经常账户赤字扩大,主要受商品贸易逆差增大驱动,这与过去情况一致。经常账户预测(占GDP百分比) 2027 XX% 2026 2025 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 哥伦比亚:经常账户(百万美元) 商品 服务 收入 经常账户余额 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6

哥伦比亚:外部头寸 19 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis 检查 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:外国直接投资 4季度移动合计,百万美元 FDI 2010-2019 平均 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:侨汇 12月移动合计,季调,百万美元 工人侨汇 2010-2019 平均

哥伦比亚:财政余额 20 财政赤字将因重建工作而扩大。然而,重要的是强调政府削减约GDP的1.3%支出的努力,这相当于过去的财政改革。财政余额预测(占GDP百分比) 2027 XX% 2026 2025 资料来源:DANE、Haver、Natixis -7.2 -9.4 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:预算余额(占GDP百分比) -6.3

哥伦比亚:国际资产 21 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis 资料来源:BANREP、Haver、Natixis 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:外汇储备总额(期末,季调,百万美元) $ 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:公共债务总额(占GDP百分比,季调)

哥伦比亚:债券收益率 22 哥伦比亚在1月发行了$5亿美元,认购倍数为4.6。资料来源:Bloomberg、Natixis 资料来源:Bloomberg、Natixis 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:10年期债券(COP)及10年期美国国债收益率(%)与利差(基点) 10年期哥伦比亚债券 - COP 10年期美国国债 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23 24 25 26 哥伦比亚:10年期债券(UST)及10年期美国国债收益率(%)与利差(基点) 10年期哥伦比亚债券 - 美元 10年期美国国债

哥伦比亚:债券与股票资金流 23 尽管在伊朗战争停火谈判开始后有所反弹,债券和股票的资金流近期有所下降,尤其是股票资金流出现大幅下降。哥伦比亚:ETF月度资金流 - 固定收益(百万美元) 资料来源:Natixis、Bloomberg 哥伦比亚:ETF月度资金流 - 股票(百万美元) -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 8月-23 2月-24 8月-24 2月-25 8月-25 2月-26 8月-26 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 5月-25 8月-25 11月-25 2月-26 5月-26 8月-26

哥伦比亚:外汇展望 24 由于高利差和美元疲软,我们预计COP将在今年剩余时间内保持强劲。然而,我们预计随着央行和政府购买美元,它将逐步贬值。资料来源:Natixis、Bloomberg 0 5 10 15 20 25 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 3月-22 11月-22 7月-23 3月-24 11月-24 7月-25 3月-26 11月-26 7月-27 COP汇率展望及3个月隐含波动率 COP/USD CLP 200日均线 3个月隐含波动率(右轴)

哥伦比亚:宏观预测 25 GDP增长 CPI 财政余额 经常账户 政策利率 汇率 汇率 同比% 同比% 占GDP百分比 占GDP百分比 期末,% 平均,兑美元 期末,兑美元 2024 1.6 5.2 -5.9 -2.9 9.50 4114 4406 2025 2.6 5.1 -6.3 -2.6 9.25 4051 3818 2026 2.8 6.6 -7.2 -2.4 12.00 3383 3150 2027 2.9 5.1 -9.4 -2.6 10.75 3538 3800 资料来源:Natixis、Haver 哥伦比亚:宏观预测

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 地震后的重建将推动2027-2028年强劲增长,增长结构从政府支出转向投资。
  • 由于重建,财政赤字将扩大,但政府削减支出约GDP的1.3%是积极努力。
  • 预计2026年通胀率为6.6%,高于目标,受最低工资上调及伊朗冲突推动,且面临厄尔尼诺风险。
  • 鉴于比索走强和货币政策已有限制性,央行可能将政策利率维持在12.00%的终端水平。
  • 由于高利差和美元疲软,COP在2026年剩余时间将保持强势,随后因央行及政府购买美元而逐步贬值。
风险
  • 厄尔尼诺现象可能在2026年底和2027年上半年推高通胀,因电力和食品价格上涨。
  • 财政赤字超预期可能推高债务占GDP比重,尤其在2027年。
  • 重建成本可能超出政府估计,导致更大财政压力。
  • 如果央行和政府大量购买美元,比索贬值速度可能快于预期。