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西太平洋银行 银行卡追踪器,2026年8月17日

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西太平洋银行 银行卡追踪器,2026年8月17日

阅读完整报告“西太平洋银行 银行卡追踪器,17年8月(PDF 587KB)”

西太平洋银行–DataX银行卡追踪指数自7月中旬以来持续改善,上升2.6点至159.6,创下历史新高。

季度增长势头回升至1.1–1.5%区间,为3月底以来最强增速。值得注意的是,这与临时燃油消费税削减结束后燃油价格上涨关系不大,该影响迄今对季度增长率影响甚微。

月度增长势头也稳定在0.7%左右,但燃油价格变化的影响更为明显,不含燃油的银行卡活动增速较缓,为0.3%。

本季度燃油和电力支出放缓,似乎为可自由支配支出腾出了一些空间。可自由支配领域目前增长2.4%,为一年来最强增速。增长主要由假日旅行推动,此前受中东冲突影响而中断的假日旅行已反弹。相比之下,本季度必需品支出基本持平。

按州划分,维多利亚州继续领跑主要州,银行卡支出增长2.4%,尽管过去四周势头明显放缓。其他地区支出增长温和但为正,新南威尔士州增长1.1%,西澳大利亚州增长1.8%。

尽管消费者面临多重逆风,但近几个月势头有所增强。回顾来看,涵盖约三分之二消费的Q2家庭支出指标实际增长0.7%,表现稳健。然而,我们仍预期更广泛的国民账户指标在Q2增长0.2%,该数据将于9月2日发布。尽管本季度尚早,最新银行卡数据表明,我们当前预测的Q3消费增长0.4%面临上行风险。总体而言,我们预计2026消费增长将达1.6%(详见我们的8月市场展望(PDF 4MB)以及8月红皮书中的消费者深度分析)。

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完整英文原文

Read full report 'Westpac Card Tracker, 17 August 2026 (PDF 587KB)'

The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index has posted a sustained improvement since mid-July, rising 2.6pts to 159.6, a new historical high.

Quarterly growth momentum has lifted back into the 1.1–1.5% range, the strongest pace since late-March. Notably, this has little to do with the move higher in fuel prices following the end of temporary excise tax cuts, with this effect having little bearing on quarterly growth rates so far.

Monthly growth momentum is also holding steady at around 0.7%, although here the impact of fuel price changes is clearer with card activity ex fuel tracking a softer 0.3% pace.

The softer fuel and electricity spending over the quarter appears to have freed up some capacity for discretionary spending. Discretionary segments are now growing at 2.4%, the strongest pace in around a year. Much of the lift has been driven by holiday travel, which has rebounded following disruptions earlier in the year associated with the Middle East conflict. In contrast, spending on essentials has been broadly flat over the quarter.

By state, Victoria continues to lead the majors, with card spending up 2.4%, although momentum has softened noticeably over the past four weeks. Elsewhere, spending growth remains more modest but positive, tracking between 1.1% in NSW and 1.8% in WA.

Momentum has strengthened through recent months, even though consumers face several headwinds. Looking back, the Q2 Household Spending Indicator, which captures around two-thirds of consumption, recorded a solid 0.7% rise in real terms. However, we still expect the broader national accounts measure to show a more modest 0.2% increase in Q2 when it is released on 2 September. While still early in the quarter, the latest card data suggest some upside risk to our current forecast of a 0.4% rise in consumption in Q3. Overall, we expect consumption growth to rise by 1.6% in 2026 (see our August Market Outlook (PDF 4MB) for the full outlook and our August Red Book for a consumer deep dive).

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关键论点
  • 银行卡支出指数升至历史新高159.6,自7月中旬以来上涨2.6点。
  • 季度增长势头为1.1%-1.5%,为3月下旬以来最强,燃料价格影响甚微。
  • 可自由支配支出增长2.4%,为一年来最快,主要由假日旅行反弹带动。
  • 本季度必需品支出大致持平。
  • 各州支出增长率介于1.1%(新南威尔士州)至2.4%(维多利亚州)之间,维多利亚州势头减弱。
  • 西太平洋银行预测2026年消费增长1.6%,并认为第三季度预测(增长0.4%)存在上行风险。
  • 第二季度家庭支出指标实际增长0.7%,但国民账户预计增长0.2%。
风险
  • 中东冲突可能影响假日旅行和可自由支配支出。
  • 燃料价格变化可能影响月度增长势头。
  • 消费者面临多重不利因素,可能抑制支出。
  • 各州势头不一,维多利亚州放缓可能预示整体放缓。