阅读完整报告《澳大利亚GDP：预览简报》
经济增长仍处于慢车道，预计第二季度GDP环比上升0.2%%，同比上升1.7%%。尽管面临利率上升和中东冲突带来的显著阻力，经济表现仍比担心的要更具韧性，西太平洋银行-Now显示活动在季度后期有所增强。
在上半年，国内需求增长保持在高于趋势水平的步伐，其中很大一部分流向了进口含量高的活动（包括购买电动汽车、数据中心设备和飞机），导致净出口形成拖累。
正如我们之前所指出的，数据中心和可再生能源投资激增可能不会平稳，大型项目的时机选择会带来显著的季度间波动。虽然其中一些波动将通过进口被抵消，但与建筑、物流和专业服务的联动意味着部分波动仍将反映在GDP总量中，正如早期2010年代液化天然气投资热潮期间所发生的那样。
我们还可能看到第二季度生产率增长环比下降0.2%%。尽管这可能引起澳大利亚储备银行的关注，但考虑到能源供应暂时性冲击以及投资激增初期通常带来的生产率拖累，这并不令人意外。而且，与第一季度一样，我们在第二季度工资价格指数中看到的工资增长放缓，可能会限制经济成本基础的相应增加。
Read full report 'Australian GDP: a preview bulletin'
Growth remained stuck in the slow lane, with GDP expected to rise 0.2%qtr and 1.7%yr in Q2. Despite significant headwinds from higher interest rates and the conflict in the Middle East, the economy has proven to be a little more resilient than feared, with Westpac-Now showing activity firmed as the quarter progressed.
Domestic demand growth is holding at an above above-trend pace over the first half of 2026, with a large share flowing into activities with high import content (including the purchase of EVs, data centre equipment and aircraft) resulting in a drag from net exports.
As we have previously noted, the data centre and renewables investment surge is unlikely to be smooth, with the timing of large projects generating significant quarter-to-quarter volatility. While some of this volatility will be netted out through imports, the linkages to construction, logistics and professional services mean some of it will still be reflected in the GDP aggregates, much as occurred during the LNG investment boom in the early 2010s.
We are also likely to see productivity growth fall 0.2%qtr in Q2. While this may be of some concern to the RBA it is not overly surprising given the presence of a temporary supply shock around energy and the productivity drag that typically comes during the initial stages of an investment surge. And, as in Q1, the moderation in wages growth we saw in the Q2 WPI is likely to limit any associated increase in the economy’s cost base.
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