美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的演讲虽然使我的观点有所缓和，但并未改变我的看法，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内按兵不动。
在我看来，美联储减少前瞻指引可能会扩大可能结果的范围，并有可能增加期限溢价，推高长期债券收益率。
财报季以大多数市场的积极惊喜结束，标普500指数取得了数十年来最好的超预期与不及预期比率之一，欧洲和日本均实现了两位数的增长。
我和家人在树林里度过了漫长的周末，趁着开学和年终冲刺前享受最后的宁静。计划是呼吸新鲜空气、少看屏幕、读点书、远足几次。但整个夏天第一次天气变坏，我们没能去远足。
美联储主席凯文·沃什周五在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表了关于加息的演讲。（我们错过的同一种。）他用了三次这个词，都是关于行走的。演讲的其余部分偏鹰派，虽然使我的观点有所缓和，但并未改变我的看法，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内按兵不动。我认为上周他没有给我们提供多少加息路径图。
沃什重申了美联储对2%通胀目标的承诺，并指出目前已经连续数月未达到该目标。他表示，他“很难将广泛的金融状况描述为限制性的”，并称美联储“现在应该关注价格”。对我来说，这表明他感觉没有政治压力要求降息。这或许可以解释为什么在他讲话时，美国收益率曲线的长端短暂上涨。但到周五收盘时，10年期和30年期债券收益率走高，尽管涨幅小于5年期和2年期收益率。
我认为周五收益率上涨的原因，以及我认为它们可能进一步走高的原因，是因为沃什正在移除“路标”。众所周知，前瞻指引正在消失。如果美联储停止发出路径信号，那么投资者可能不得不自己来推断可能的结果范围。在我看来，他们会认为这些范围更宽，并且可能想要为这种不确定性获得补偿，这在我看来应该意味着更多的期限溢价。鉴于经济持续增长，我认为收益率可能还有进一步上升的空间。
沃什称劳动力市场“相当稳定”，我认为他可能没有说错。在他站起来讲话时，美国劳工统计局悄悄发布了季度薪资修订数据（就业和工资季度普查）。2023年4月至2024年3月的就业创造被下修了79万，这只是之前修订的一小部分。对我来说，这是一个有韧性的劳动力市场，而不是一个正在恶化的市场。
随着英伟达公布财报，上个盈利季收官，许多地区整体业绩表现强劲。我们在许多市场看到了积极惊喜，标普500指数的超预期与不及预期之比创下了几十年来较好的水平，欧洲和日本的企业盈利实现了两位数的增长。3
美元上周五上涨，但我怀疑这种走势能否持续。通常情况下，偏鹰派的美联储和更高的收益率可能支撑美元，但收益率上升的原因很重要。如果长端收益率上升是因为投资者需要为不再提供前瞻指引的央行获得补偿，那么这并不是信心投票。沃什在讲话中表示，美元是他关注的指标之一，随后明确表示他打算以自己的判断为核心重建美联储。我不认为这两点能够并存并支撑美元。
我们值得从上周五的情况中跳出来，看看2026。市场已经吸收了大量干扰，并且比许多人预期的表现更好。曾经有一些时刻，恐慌似乎是合理的做法，而且不止一次我曾考虑搬到小木屋里，脱离电网生活。我相信今年剩余时间会带来新的干扰，但我不太担心的一个干扰是收益率上升。因为私人部门的杠杆率低于之前的周期，4 在我看来，它对利率的敏感度远低于以往。
在我看来，一个似乎已经承受了2026所带来冲击的全球经济和股市，很可能能够承受美国10年期国债收益率在5%的水平。我也相信，市场可以在没有美联储指导的情况下找到自己的路径。或许我们真正应该担心的是收益率急剧下降，因为这可能意味着真正的增长恐慌。我对当前数据的解读表明，这种情况发生的概率仍然很低。
所以，目前我就像坐在森林中的小木屋里，屋顶有雨声，没有地图，我也不担心找不到地图。我对今年剩余时间感觉良好。希望你也如此。
来源：彭博资讯，截至28,年2026。国债收益率是不同期限美国国债的市场利率。
来源：美国劳工统计局，基于当前就业统计（CES）全国基准修订对非农总就业的初步估计，截至28,年2026。
来源：彭博资讯，截至28,年2026,，基于标普500指数、STOXX600指数和TOPIX指数的盈利数据。当前超预期与不及预期比率为86%，而历史中位数为71%。标普500指数是代表美国股市的未管理指数。STOXX欧洲600指数代表欧洲地区17个国家的大、中、小市值公司。TOPIX指数是自由流通市值加权指数，衡量东京证券交易所上市大盘股的表现。
来源：彭博资讯和美联储，截至28,年2026,，基于家庭净资产与收入比、家庭债务偿付与收入比等指标。
所有投资都涉及风险，包括损失风险。
过往表现并不保证未来结果。
无法直接投资于指数。
这不构成对任何特定投资者投资策略或产品的推荐。投资者在做出任何投资决策前应咨询金融专业人士。
超预期与不及预期比率衡量公司报告盈利超出分析师预期的频率与低于预期的频率之比。
消费者价格指数（CPI）衡量消费者价格的变化，是常用的通胀衡量指标。
每股收益（EPS）指公司总收益除以流通股数量。
一般而言，股票价值会波动，有时波动较大，以回应公司特定活动以及整体市场、经济和政治状况。
通胀是指商品和服务总体价格水平的上升速度。
杠杆率衡量公司总债务相对于公司账面价值的情况。
生产者价格指数（PPI）计划衡量国内生产者为其产出所收到的销售价格随时间的平均变化。PPI中包含的价格来自许多产品和一些服务的首次商业交易。
采购经理人指数（PMI）基于对全球公司的月度调查，衡量制造业和服务业的商业状况。
对特定公司的引用不构成买入/卖出建议。
标普 500® 指数是一个未管理的指数，被认为是美国股票市场的代表。
期限溢价是投资者为持有长期债券而非一系列短期债券而要求的超额收益率。
收益率曲线在某一时间点绘制具有相同信用质量但不同到期日的债券的利率，以预测未来利率变化和经济活动。
上述观点是作者截至8月 31, 2026 的观点。这些评论不应被解释为建议，而是作为更广泛主题的说明。前瞻性陈述不是未来结果的保证。它们涉及风险、不确定性和假设；不能保证实际结果不会与预期产生重大差异。
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium tempered, but didn’t change, my view that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year.
Less forward guidance from the Fed may widen the range of possible outcomes, in my opinion, and has the potential to increase the term premium and push longer-term bond yields higher.
Earnings season ended with positive surprises in most markets, one of the better beat-to-miss ratios the S&P 500 has produced in decades, and double-digit growth in both Europe and Japan.
My family and I spent the long weekend in the woods, grabbing the last of the calm before school starts and the end-of-year rush begins. The plan was fresh air, fewer screens, some reading, and a couple of hikes. Then the weather turned for the first time all summer, and we didn't get to hike.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh opened the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday with a speech about hikes too. (The same kind we missed.) He used the word three times, all of them about walking. The rest of the speech was on the hawkish side, and it tempered, but didn’t change, my view that the Fed stays on hold for the rest of the year. I don’t think we got much of a hiking map last week from him.
Warsh recommitted the Fed to its 2% inflation target and pointed out that it has now missed that target for 65 months. He said he was "hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," and that the Fed's focus "right now should be on prices." To me, that suggests he feels under no political pressure to cut. That might explain why the long end of the US yield curve rallied briefly as he spoke. But by Friday's close, 10-year and 30-year bond yields were higher, although less so than 2- and 5-year yields.1
The reason I think yields rose on Friday, and why I think they could still move higher, is because Warsh is taking down the “trail markers.” Forward guidance, as we’ve known it, is going away. If the Fed stops signaling a path, then investors may have to work out the range of outcomes themselves. They’ll see those ranges as wider, in my view, and will likely want to be paid for the trouble, which should mean more term premium in my opinion. With an economy that has continued to grow, I think yields may have further to climb.
Warsh called labor markets “quite stable,” and I think he’s likely not wrong. As he stood up to speak, the Bureau of Labor Statistics quietly published its quarterly revisions to payrolls (the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages). Job creation for April 2025 to March 2026 was revised down by 79,000,2 which is a fraction of the revisions that came before it. That’s a resilient labor market to me rather than a deteriorating one.
Earnings season ended last week with Nvidia rounding out generally strong results in many regions. We’ve seen positive surprises across many markets, one of the better beat-to-miss ratios the S&P 500 has produced in decades, and double-digit earnings growth in Europe and Japan.3
The US dollar rose on Friday, but I doubt that holds. Ordinarily, a hawkish Fed and higher yields could support the dollar, but why yields are rising matters. If the long end climbs because investors need compensation for a central bank that no longer tells them where it’s going, that isn’t a vote of confidence. In his speech, Warsh said the dollar is something he watches, and then made it clear that he intends to rebuild the Fed around his own discretion. I don’t think those two things sit together and support the dollar.
It’s worth stepping back from Friday and looking at 2026. Markets have absorbed a lot of disruption and held up better than many people expected. There have been points where panicking might have felt like a sensible thing to do, and more than once I have contemplated moving to a cabin and living off-grid. I’m confident that the remainder of the year will bring new disruptions, but one disruption I’m less concerned about is higher yields. Because the private sector has less leverage than in prior cycles,4 it has shown itself to be far less sensitive to rates, in my opinion.
A global economy and stock markets that appear to have taken what 2026 has thrown at them can likely live with the US 10-year bond at 5%, in my view. I’m confident too that markets can find their way with less Fed guidance. Perhaps what we might worry about is sharply falling rates, because that may likely mean a real growth scare. My reading of current data says that remains a low probability.
So, for now, I’m in a cabin in the woods with rain on the roof and no map, and I’m not worried about finding one. I feel good about the rest of the year. I hope you do too.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug. 28, 2026. Treasury yields are the market interest rates on US Treasury securities across different maturities.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment, as of Aug. 28, 2026.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug. 28, 2026, based on earnings data for the S&P 500 Index, STOXX 600 Index, and TOPIX Index. The beat-to-miss ratio is currently 86% versus the 71% historical median. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market. The STOXX Europe 600 Index represents large-, mid-, and small-capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region. The TOPIX Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index measuring the performance of large-cap stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Source: Bloomberg L.P and the Federal Reserve, as of Aug. 28, 2026, based on metrics such as household net worth to income and household debt service expense to income.
All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investments cannot be made directly in an index.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
A beat-to-miss ratio measures how often a company's reported earnings results exceed analyst expectations versus how often they fall short.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in consumer prices and is a commonly cited measure of inflation.
Earnings per share (EPS) refers to a company’s total earnings divided by the number of outstanding shares.
In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic, and political conditions.
Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.
Leverage measures a company’s total debt relative to the company’s book value.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.
References to specific companies aren’t buy/sell recommendations.
The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.
Term premium is the excess yield that investors require to commit to holding a long-term bond instead of a series of shorter-term bonds.
The yield curve plots interest rates at a set point in time for bonds of equal credit quality but differing maturity dates in order to project future interest rate changes and economic activity.
The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of Aug. 31, 2026. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.
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