在政策制定者信誉及人工智能生态系统盈利可持续性受到日益严格审视的时期，多元化策略和选择性投资或有助于应对挑战。
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伊朗冲突：多元化策略发挥作用
摘要
伊朗冲突：多元化策略发挥作用
自伊朗战争爆发以来的六个月里，全球增长保持韧性，而通胀仍高于目标水平。
股市因盈利和人工智能乐观情绪而上涨，而债券则因财政宽松担忧和供应增加而受挫。
欧洲多元化投资组合带来了强劲回报，抵消了债券市场的疲软，并受益于股市反弹。
中东冲突开始六个月后，宏观背景比预期更具韧性，尤其是在欧元区，我们看到第二季度数据走强，领先指标改善。通胀预计将在较低水平见顶，但在主要经济体中仍将高于目标，地缘政治紧张局势和气候模式仍对能源和食品价格构成风险。与此同时，盈利增长保持稳健，不仅限于科技领域，且在不同国家间扩大，而收益率因财政和供应担忧以及货币政策预期的转变而上升。
展望未来，跨地区和跨资产类别的多元化策略或有助于应对政策制定者信誉及公司基本面（尤其是人工智能生态系统中的公司基本面）受到日益严格审视的时期。
本周要闻概览
股市因最新盈利数据提振了对人工智能热潮的信心并帮助恢复了投资者情绪而上涨。固定收益方面，美国短端收益率在新任美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表偏鹰派言论后走高，导致收益率曲线趋平。油价因对伊朗外交的乐观情绪重燃而下跌，而金价在央行进一步加息预期下回落。外汇方面，美元小幅走高。
股票和债券市场（图表）来源：彭博。市场由以下指数代表：全球股票 = MSCI全球指数（美元），美国 = 标普500指数（美元），欧洲 = 欧洲斯托克600指数（欧元），日本 = 东证指数（日元），新兴市场 = MSCI新兴市场指数（美元），全球综合债券 = 彭博全球综合债券指数（美元），欧元区综合债券 = 彭博欧元区综合债券指数（欧元），新兴市场债券 = 摩根大通新兴市场债券全球多元化指数（美元）。
所有指数均按即期价格计算，且不含费用和税费。
政府债券收益率（表格），大宗商品、外汇和短期利率。
来源：彭博，数据截至8月29日。图表显示黄金价格。
多元化投资并不保证盈利或免受损失。
Amundi投资研究所宏观焦点
PCE物价指数环比小幅上升，同比维持在3.7%，略高于预期的3.6%；核心PCE维持在3.3%。通胀未进一步显著加速，但仍处于高位，这支持美联储在9月按兵不动。消费方面，美国个人支出环比增长0.2%%，但经通胀调整后持平。支出主要集中在必需服务和资产价格相关的服务上，而非 可选消费 需求。
法国通胀上升，主要由能源推动
在法国，8月通胀率从2.4%升至2.7%，环比上涨0.8%%。上涨主要由能源价格推动，尤其是石油产品。同时，食品价格略有上涨，而服务业通胀放缓。因此，核心通胀的信号比整体数字所暗示的要温和。石油和天然气价格上涨对通胀构成上行风险，对增长构成下行风险，这可能会使欧洲央行保持谨慎。
韩国央行将政策利率上调25bp个基点至3%，同时在其六个月的点阵图中暗示未来收紧步伐将放缓。为了防止通胀压力扩大，采取先发制人的反应被认为是必要的，同时金融稳定风险仍需关注。韩国央行将2026年增长预测从3.3%上调至2.6%，但将通胀预测维持在2.7%，因为人工智能芯片热潮和更强劲的国内需求可能抵消油价下跌和本币走强带来的通缩影响。
重要日期
巴西GDP、欧元区制造业PMI和CPI、美国ISM制造业指数
欧元区服务业和综合PMI、欧元区PPI、美国ISM非制造业指数
欧元区零售销售、美国非农就业和失业率
伊朗冲突：多元化策略发挥作用
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完整英文原文
Summary
Diversification and selectivity could help navigate a period of increasing scrutiny over policymakers’ credibility and the sustainability of earnings in the AI ecosystem
Iran conflict: Diversification at play
In the six months since the start of the Iran war, global growth has remained resilient, while inflation has stayed above target.
Equities rose on earnings and AI optimism, while bonds suffered on fears of fiscal slippage and higher supply.
A European diversified portfolio delivered strong returns, offsetting bond weakness and benefiting from the equity rally.
Six months after the conflict in the Middle East began, the macroeconomic backdrop has proved more resilient than expected, particularly in the Eurozone where we are seeing stronger Q2 data and improving leading indicators. Inflation is expected to peak at lower levels, but remain above target in major economies with geopolitical tensions and climate patterns still posing risks to energy and food prices. Meanwhile, earnings growth has remained solid, broadening beyond technology and across countries, while yields have risen, amid fiscal and supply concerns, as well as shifting monetary policy expectations.
Looking ahead, a diversified approach across regions and asset classes could help navigating a period in which the credibility of policymakers and the fundamentals of companies, particularly in the artificial intelligence ecosystem, will come under increasing scrutiny.
This week at a glance
Equity markets gained after fresh earnings data reinforced confidence in the AI boom and helped restore investor sentiment. In fixed income, shorter-dated US yields moved higher after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, causing the curve to flatten. Oil fell on renewed optimism around diplomacy with Iran, while gold retreated as markets priced in further central bank rate hikes. In FX, the US dollar edged slightly higher.
Equity and bond markets (chart)Source: Bloomberg. Markets are represented by the following indices: World Equities = MSCI AC World Index (USD) United States = S&P 500 (USD), Europe = Europe Stoxx 600 (EUR), Japan = TOPIX (YEN), Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging (USD), Global Aggregate = Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD Euro Aggregate = Bloomberg Euro Aggregate (EUR), Emerging = JPM EMBI Global Diversified (USD).
All indices are calculated on spot prices and are gross of fees and taxation.
Government bond yields (table), Commodities, FX and short-term rates.
Source: Bloomberg, data as of 28 August 2026. The chart shows the price of gold.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Amundi Investment Institute Macro Focus
The PCE price index increased slightly on a monthly basis and remained at 3.7% YoY, slightly above the expected 3.6%; core PCE remained at 3.3%. There has been no further significant acceleration, but inflation remains too high, supporting a Fed hold in September. On the consumption side, US personal spending rose 0.2% MoM, but adjusted for inflation it remained flat. Spending has been concentrated in essential and asset-price-linked services rather than discretionary demand.
France’s inflation rises, driven mainly by energy
In France, inflation rose in August, from 2.4% to 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.8%. The rise was driven primarily by energy prices, particularly petroleum products. Meanwhile, food prices increased slightly, while inflation in the services sector slowed. As a result, the signal on core inflation is less concerning than the headline figure suggests. Rising oil and gas prices pose an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to growth, which is likely to keep the ECB cautious.
The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate by 25bp to 3%, while signaling a low pace of tightening from here in its six-month dot plot. A preemptive response was deemed necessary to prevent inflation pressures from broadening, while financial-stability risks still required attention. The BOK raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6% but kept inflation at 2.7%, as the AI-chip boom and stronger domestic demand may offset disinflation from lower oil prices and a firmer currency.
Key Dates
Brazil GDP, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and CPI, US ISM Manufacturing
Eurozone Services and Composite PMI, Eurozone PPI , US ISM Services
Eurozone retail sales, US Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate
Iran conflict: Diversification at play
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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
- 多元化和选择性可能有助于应对对政策制定者信誉和AI生态系统盈利可持续性日益严格的审视。
- 股票因盈利和AI乐观情绪上涨，而债券因财政失序和供应增加担忧而下跌。
- 预计通胀将在较低水平见顶，但主要经济体的通胀仍将高于目标。
- 由于通胀仍高于目标，美联储可能在9月维持利率不变。
风险
- 地缘政治紧张局势和气候模式对能源和食品价格构成风险，可能推高通胀。
- 石油和天然气价格上涨对通胀构成上行风险，对增长构成下行风险，可能使欧洲央行保持谨慎。
- 政策制定者的信誉和AI盈利的可持续性正受到日益严格的审视。