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拉丁美洲每日报告:秘鲁贷款增长在7月延续积极趋势

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拉丁美洲每日报告:秘鲁贷款增长在7月延续积极趋势

7月直接贷款同比增长约 8.7%%,高于6月记录的 8.3%% 同比增幅,延续了自10月 2021 以来观察到的上升趋势。在经济活动韧性的支持下,贷款持续加速,经济活动在 1H26 期间累计增长 3.1%%。企业贷款同比增长约 7.5%%(表 1),保持了比 2Q26 更强劲的增速,并维持其积极趋势。与此同时,家庭贷款加速至近 10.5%% 的同比增幅,仍高于其平均增速。

企业贷款继续以健康的速度增长,年度表现有所改善(图 1),与私人投资的扩张基本一致,私人投资在 2Q26 期间增长 17.6%%。7月记录的贷款流量高于6月,主要受小企业贷款推动。大多数贷款组合表现更为强劲,但企业贷款除外,其增速从6月的同比 5.9%% 放缓至7月的同比 5.1%%。

在企业贷款部分中,7月大型企业贷款同比增长 4.5%%,而中型企业贷款表现优于上月,同比增速从 11.7%% 加速至 13.1%%。小企业贷款增长保持在同比 13.0%% 附近。相比之下,微型企业贷款组合仍处于负值区域,但持续改善,从6月的同比 -10.6%% 回升至7月的同比 -10.0%%。

家庭贷款继续显示出强劲势头,同比扩张近 10.5%%(图 2)。该板块保持坚实的上升趋势,受健康的贷款流量支撑。抵押贷款保持稳定,年增长率约为 7.7%%,贷款流量与年度平均水平大致一致。

7月消费贷款同比增长超过 13.0%%,高于6月的同比 12.0%%,受私人消费强劲的支撑,私人消费在 2Q26 期间可能增长 3.7%%。此外,贷款流量在整个月内保持强劲,可能反映了正式就业的积极表现和持续处于低位的拖欠率。

最后,我们预计未来几个月直接贷款将继续显示强劲势头。到 2026, 年底,我们预测直接贷款同比增长约 8.0%%。因此,企业贷款预计将保持在同比 7.0%% 附近,而国内需求的有利表现应继续支持家庭贷款,我们预计到年底家庭贷款将增长约 9.0%% 的同比增幅。

本报告由丰业银行经济部编制,作为丰业银行客户的资源。本报告中的观点、估计和预测为报告发布之日的我方观点,如有变更,恕不另行通知。本报告中的信息和观点来源于我们认为可靠的来源,但未对其准确性或完整性作出任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证。丰业银行及其任何高管、董事、合伙人、员工或关联方均不对因使用本报告或其内容而产生的任何直接或间接损失承担任何责任。

完整英文原文

Direct loans grew by around 8.7% y/y in July, above the 8.3% y/y recorded in June, extending the uptrend observed since October 2021. Lending continues to accelerate, supported by the resilience of economic activity, which posted cumulative growth of 3.1% during 1H26. Business loans expanded by approximately 7.5% y/y (table 1), sustaining a stronger pace than in 2Q26 and maintaining their positive trend. Meanwhile, household loans accelerated to nearly 10.5% y/y, remaining above their average pace.

Business loans continued to grow at a healthy rate, showing an improvement in annual terms (chart 1), broadly consistent with the expansion in private investment, which grew 17.6% during 2Q26. July recorded higher loan flows compared to June, mainly driven by small business loans. Most lending portfolios showed a stronger performance, with the exception of corporate loans, whose growth eased from 5.9% y/y in June to 5.1% y/y in July.

Within the business segment, large business loans grew by 4.5% y/y in July, while medium business loans posted a stronger performance than in the previous month, accelerating from 11.7% y/y to 13.1% y/y. Growth in small business loans remained close to 13.0% y/y. In contrast, the micro business loans portfolio remained in negative territory, although it continued to recover, improving from -10.6% y/y in June to -10.0% y/y in July.

Household loans continued to show strong momentum, expanding by nearly 10.5% y/y (chart 2). The segment maintains a solid upward trend, supported by healthy loan flows. Mortgages remained stable, growing at around 7.7% annually and recording flows broadly in line with the annual average.

Consumer loans expanded by more than 13.0% y/y in July, up from 12.0% y/y in June, supported by the strength of private consumption, which likely grew 3.7% during 2Q26. In addition, loan flows remained robust throughout the month, likely reflecting the positive performance of formal employment and persistently low delinquency rates.

Finally, we expect direct loans to continue showing solid momentum over the coming months. By the end of 2026, we forecast direct loan growth of around 8.0% y/y. Accordingly, business loans are expected to remain close to 7.0% y/y, while the favourable performance of domestic demand should continue to support household loans, which we project to grow at around 9.0% y/y by year-end.

This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor any of its officers, directors, partners, employees or affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.

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关键论点
  • 7月份直接贷款同比增长8.7%,高于6月份的8.3%,延续了自2021年10月以来的上升趋势。
  • 企业贷款同比增长7.5%,中型企业贷款加速至13.1%,而微型企业贷款仍为负增长,为-10.0%。
  • 家庭贷款加速至近10.5%,其中消费贷款同比增长超过13.0%。
  • 丰业银行预测,到2026年底直接贷款增长约8.0%,企业贷款接近7.0%,家庭贷款接近9.0%。
风险
  • 贷款增长的下行风险包括经济活动放缓或私人消费恶化。
  • 企业贷款增长放缓,从6月份的5.9%降至7月份的5.1%,这一趋势可能持续。
  • 微型企业贷款仍为负增长,表明该领域持续面临挑战。