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富兰克林邓普顿 · 2026/08/26

富兰克林邓普顿研究院

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富兰克林邓普顿研究院

全球投资管理调查

这项半年度的展望调查旨在提供我们各投资团队的视角。对 2026 的预期基于所有资产类别投资专业人士的调查结果。我们还提供了对通胀、衰退、资产类别表现等的预测。

世界并未崩溃:2026 年中投资展望

2026, 年过半,富兰克林邓普顿研究院的全球投资展望框架仍然是一个有价值的视角——但格局已经发生变化。

大反转:新范式下的投资机遇

二十年来,美国消费,中国制造。这种分工不仅发生了演变——它已经反转。为 2000 年代初绘制的投资地图已不再适用于未来十年。

来自美国市场交易台:扭转操作

每周为您带来超越媒体头条的高确信度洞察。

市场广度已实现,现在需为波动做好准备

市场领导力已超越大型科技股,但下一阶段可能会奖励纪律严明、多元化的投资者,富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Chris Galipeau 和 Lukasz Kalwak 写道。

关注我们的研究院院长兼首席市场策略师

通过 LinkedIn 关注 Stephen Dover,及时了解我们研究院的最新动态,他将发布自己的观点和评论以及《全球市场展望》通讯。

来自美国市场交易台:现在……我们等待……

每周为您带来超越媒体头条的高确信度洞察。

大反转:新范式下的投资机遇

二十年来,美国消费,中国制造。这种分工不仅发生了演变——它已经反转。为 2000 年代初绘制的投资地图已不再适用于未来十年。

来自美国市场交易台:扭转操作

每周为您带来超越媒体头条的高确信度洞察。

思考:薛定谔的霍尔木兹海峡

富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Kim Catechis 将“薛定谔的猫”的概念应用于当前霍尔木兹海峡的局势。

思考:匈牙利——2026 年迄今最重要的选举

富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Kim Catechis 对匈牙利选举影响的思考。

思考:格陵兰情景分析——跨大西洋贸易和防务影响

在特朗普总统再次表示有意收购格陵兰后,地缘政治紧张局势升级。富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Kim Catechis 探讨了相关影响。

大反转:新范式下的投资机遇

二十年来,美国消费,中国制造。这种分工不仅发生了演变——它已经反转。为 2000 年代初绘制的投资地图已不再适用于未来十年。

是时候再次考虑核心(增强)债券组合了吗?

富兰克林邓普顿研究院发现固定收益各板块的估值正变得更具吸引力,综合收益率接近有吸引力的水平——这是一个信号,表明应考虑从短久期偏好转向核心债券组合。

宏观视界:孔雀与老虎的故事

韩国仍然是亚洲最具吸引力的股票市场之一,但它已不再是一个简单的“买入指数”的市场,富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Christy Tan 表示。

大反转:新范式下的投资机遇

二十年来,美国消费,中国制造。这种分工不仅发生了演变——它已经反转。为 2000 年代初绘制的投资地图已不再适用于未来十年。

来自美国市场交易台:扭转操作

每周为您带来超越媒体头条的高确信度洞察。

市场广度已实现,现在需为波动做好准备

市场领导力已超越大型科技股,但下一阶段可能会奖励纪律严明、多元化的投资者,富兰克林邓普顿研究院的 Chris Galipeau 和 Lukasz Kalwak 写道。

人工智能:不过是繁荣-萧条周期中的又一章,还是科技能征服一切?

富兰克林邓普顿研究院调查了人工智能投资热潮,以判断它是遵循其他投资浪潮的模式,还是具有能够避免崩盘的独特性。

深水浪潮:加速、扩展、影响深远

在日常头条新闻之下,强大的长期力量正在改变社会、推动技术发展,并促使地缘经济逻辑塑造我们未来的世界。在本多年系列的最新更新中,了解“深水浪潮”。

人工智能与电力能源基础设施

随着人工智能改变各行各业,其对能源的巨大需求正在给现有基础设施带来压力。需要创新解决方案来满足日益增长的需求,从而推动对新能源和智能电网系统的投资。

大反转:新范式下的投资机遇

二十年来,美国消费,中国制造。这种分工不仅发生了演变——它已经反转。为 2000 年代初绘制的投资地图已不再适用于未来十年。

核心债券增强策略:内在机制与何时考虑

富兰克林邓普顿研究院认为,在收益率上升和信用基本面强健的支持下,核心债券增强策略存在有吸引力的机会。

来自美国市场交易台:扭转操作

每周为您带来超越媒体头条的高确信度洞察。

探索领域

我们正在构建和加速技术解决方案,以帮助客户打破增长壁垒,跟上我们所处行业的颠覆性变革步伐。

具有前瞻性的思考和可操作的见解,以促进可持续变革和更具包容性的经济。

从根本上说,可持续性意味着在不损害子孙后代满足其自身需求的能力的前提下,满足我们这一代人的需求。这是我们应用于投资思考的视角,旨在为全球数百万客户创造可重复的风险调整后回报。

完整英文原文

Global Investment Management Survey

This bi-annual outlook survey is designed to give a view across our investment teams. The expectations for 2026 are based on survey results from investment professionals across all asset classes. We also provide our predictions on inflation, recession, asset class performance and more.

The World Didn’t Break: 2026 Mid-Year Investment Outlook

Midway through 2026, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Global Investment Outlook framework remains a valuable lens—but the landscape has shifted.

The great inversion: Investment opportunities amid a new paradigm

For two decades, the United States consumed and China built. That division of labor has not merely evolved — it has inverted. The investment map drawn for the early 2000s no longer describes the next decade.

From the US Market Desk: Operation Twist

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Broadening Delivered. Now Prepare for Volatility.

Market leadership has broadened beyond mega-cap tech, but the next phase is likely to reward disciplined, diversified investors, write Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak of Franklin Templeton Institute.

Follow our Head of Franklin Templeton Institute and Chief Market Strategist

Stay current with our Institute by following Stephen Dover on LinkedIn where he will be posting his thoughts and comments as well as his Global Market Perspectives newsletter.

From the US Market Desk: Now…We Wait…

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

The great inversion: Investment opportunities amid a new paradigm

For two decades, the United States consumed and China built. That division of labor has not merely evolved — it has inverted. The investment map drawn for the early 2000s no longer describes the next decade.

From the US Market Desk: Operation Twist

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Consider This: Schrödinger’s Straits

Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis applies the concept of “Schrödinger’s cat” to that of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Consider This: Hungary—The most meaningful election of 2026 so far

Reflections on the implications of the Hungarian election from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis.

Consider This: Greenland scenario analysis—transatlantic trade and defense implications

Geopolitical tensions have escalated following President Trump’s renewed intent to acquire Greenland. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis explores the implications.

The great inversion: Investment opportunities amid a new paradigm

For two decades, the United States consumed and China built. That division of labor has not merely evolved — it has inverted. The investment map drawn for the early 2000s no longer describes the next decade.

Time for Core (Plus) Bond Portfolios Again?

Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.

Under the Macroscope: A Tale of the Peacock and the Horangi

South Korea remains one of Asia’s most compelling equity stories, but it is no longer a simple “buy the index” market, according to Franklin Templeton Institute’s Christy Tan.

The great inversion: Investment opportunities amid a new paradigm

For two decades, the United States consumed and China built. That division of labor has not merely evolved — it has inverted. The investment map drawn for the early 2000s no longer describes the next decade.

From the US Market Desk: Operation Twist

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Broadening Delivered. Now Prepare for Volatility.

Market leadership has broadened beyond mega-cap tech, but the next phase is likely to reward disciplined, diversified investors, write Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak of Franklin Templeton Institute.

AI: Just another chapter for the boom-bust book, or can tech conquer all?

Franklin Templeton Institute investigates the AI investment boom to see if it is following the pattern of other investment waves or if it has distinctive features that can prevent it from going bust.

Deep Water Waves: Accelerating, Broadening, Consequential

Beneath the daily headlines, powerful long-term forces are changing societies, driving technology and compelling geoeconomic logic to shape our future world. Learn about Deep Water Waves in this update to our multi-year series.

Artificial intelligence and electricity energy infrastructure

As AI transforms industries, its massive energy appetite is straining existing infrastructure. Innovative solutions are needed to meet growing demands, driving investments in new energy sources and intelligent grid systems.

The great inversion: Investment opportunities amid a new paradigm

For two decades, the United States consumed and China built. That division of labor has not merely evolved — it has inverted. The investment map drawn for the early 2000s no longer describes the next decade.

Core Bond (Plus): What’s Under the Hood and When to Consider It

Franklin Templeton Institute sees attractive opportunities in core bond-plus strategies, supported by elevated yields and resilient credit fundamentals.

From the US Market Desk: Operation Twist

Get ready each week with high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Areas of Exploration

We are building and accelerating technology solutions to help clients break down barriers to growth and keep pace with the disruptive transformation of our industry.

Thought leadership and actionable insights for sustainable change and more economic inclusion.

At the heart of it, sustainability means meeting our generation's needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It's a lens we apply to our investment thinking to create repeatable risk-adjusted returns for millions of clients around the world.

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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 中美分工已逆转:中国转向消费,美国转向建设,重塑投资格局。
  • 市场领导地位已从超大盘科技股扩大,多元化投资者获得回报。
  • 固定收益估值变得更具吸引力,整体收益率接近有吸引力的水平。
  • 韩国仍是一个有吸引力的股票市场,但需要选择性选股。
  • AI的巨大能源需求正在推动新能源和智能电网系统的投资。
风险
  • 地缘政治紧张,如霍尔木兹海峡,可能升级并影响市场。
  • AI投资浪潮可能遵循过去投资浪潮的模式,并可能破裂。
  • 中美分工的逆转可能导致结构性破坏。