8月份CPI通胀意外上行，从7月的3.0%加速至3.4%，主要受燃料价格上涨推动。然而，这一增长可能被夸大，因为波兰统计局可能未完全捕捉到8月下半月临时削减燃料增值税的影响
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完整中文译文
波兰通胀超预期，受燃料价格推动
根据波兰中央统计局（Statistics Poland）的初步估计，8月份CPI通胀同比加速至3.4%，高于7月份的3.0%，远高于我们的预测和市场共识的3.1%。按月计算，消费者价格环比上涨0.4%，高于市场预期的0.1%，此前7月份上涨了0.8%。
整体同比通胀的上升主要是由燃油价格上涨推动的，其同比涨幅从一个月前的15.8%加速至24.2%。这一因素的通胀影响并未被食品价格更深程度的下跌所完全抵消，食品价格同比涨幅从7月份的-0.4%降至8月份的-0.9%。根据我们的估计，剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀同比小幅上升至3.2–3.3%，高于7月份的3.1%。
在8月下半月，政府暂时恢复了燃油的较低增值税税率（8%，而非23%）。然而，这并不足以阻止燃油价格环比上涨5.2%，因此也未能阻止通胀加速。话虽如此，下半月燃油价格的暂时下跌可能并未被波兰中央统计局完全捕捉到。8月份食品市场的通缩趋势持续，部分原因是主要零售连锁店之间的价格战。
我们预计未来几个月通胀将保持高位，接近波兰国家银行（NBP）目标区间的上限。因此，央行很可能在今年年底前维持利率不变（目前为3.75%）。
然而，燃油价格强劲的统计基数效应可能会在第一季度和第二季度交替之际，将CPI通胀拉低至NBP的2.5%目标附近。再加上接下来几个季度的有利通胀前景，这可能促使货币政策委员会在明年年中放宽货币政策。我们的基线情景假设在2027年将进行两次、每次25bp个基点的降息。
完整英文原文
CPI inflation surprised on the upside in August, accelerating to 3.4% from 3.0% in July, driven by higher fuel prices. However, the increase may be overstated, as Poland's statistical office may not have fully captured the impact of a temporary VAT cut on fuel in the second half of the month
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According to Statistics Poland's preliminary estimate, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.4% year-on-year in August from 3.0% in July, well above both our forecast and the market consensus of 3.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, above the consensus estimate of 0.1% and following a 0.8% increase in July.
The rise in headline YoY inflation was driven primarily by higher fuel prices, which accelerated to 24.2% from 15.8% a month earlier. The inflationary impact of this factor was not fully offset by the deeper decline in food prices, from -0.4% YoY in July to -0.9% YoY in August. According to our estimates, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, edged up to 3.2–3.3% YoY from 3.1% in July.
In the second half of August, the government temporarily reinstated the reduced VAT rate on fuel (8% instead of 23%). However, this was not enough to prevent fuel prices from rising by 5.2% month-on-month and, consequently, did not prevent the acceleration of inflation. That said, the temporary decline in fuel prices in the second half of the month may not have been fully captured by Statistics Poland. Deflationary trends in the food market persisted in August, supported, among other factors, by a price war between the leading retail chains.
We expect inflation to remain elevated over the coming months, close to the upper limit of the National Bank of Poland's target range. As a result, the central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged until the end of this year (currently at 3.75%).
However, strong statistical base effects in fuel prices may bring CPI inflation down towards the NBP's 2.5% target around the turn of the first and second quarters of 2027. Together with a favourable inflation outlook for the following quarters, this may prompt the Monetary Policy Council to ease monetary policy in the middle of next year. Our baseline scenario assumes two 25bp interest-rate cuts in 2027.
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关键论点
- 8月总体通胀同比从7月的3.0%升至3.4%，高于预期。
- 燃料价格同比飙升24.2%，推动意外上行。
- 核心通胀同比微升至3.2-3.3%。
- 临时增值税削减可能未完全反映在数据中。
- 通胀在2026年底前将保持在央行目标区间上沿附近。
- 基数效应可能在2027年第一季度/第二季度将CPI降至2.5%，从而促成降息。
风险
- 统计部门可能未充分计入增值税削减，当前通胀可能被高估。
- 燃料价格可能因地缘政治或供应因素而波动。
- 如果食品通胀回落减弱，核心通胀可能比预期更顽固。
- 如果通胀持续高位更久，降息可能推迟。