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富兰克林邓普顿 · 2026/08/25

投资于未来经济的基础

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投资于未来经济的基础

执行摘要

每个投资时代都有其组织信念。上一个时代倾向于效率:全球供应链、精益库存、低成本资本,以及那些无需拥有太多实物资产就能扩展的业务。下一个时代可能更倾向于韧性:安全的输入、可靠的电力、持久的基础设施、战略位置,以及能在压力下维持经济运转的资产。

几个力量正在推动这一转变。地缘政治碎片化正促使国家和企业将供应链区域化,并确保关键输入的安全。国内政治压力正在增加国家在产业政策、国防、住房、能源和基础设施中的作用。气候变化正将适应变成资本配置的要求。人工智能(AI)和电气化正揭示数字增长背后的物理约束,尤其是电力、电网容量、土地、水和物流。与此同时,高企的公共和私人债务负担在投资需求上升之际限制了政府和市场的灵活性。

这些力量汇聚在一起,指向同一方向:未来可能更加实体化、更加本地化、更加电力密集、更加依赖基础设施,并更容易受到稀缺性的影响。对于投资者而言,机会不仅仅是拥有“硬资产”,而是识别那些位于关键经济系统内部并帮助这些系统在压力下运转的资产。

我们将此描述为以系统为导向的投资。它始于处于压力下的系统——能源、数据、住房、物流、食品、水、自然资源和社会基础设施——但迅速转向投资问题:哪些资产是稀缺的、必不可少的,并且能够提高系统的韧性?在这种环境下,实物资产不是边缘配置。它们越来越成为经济韧性的物质基础。

富兰克林实物资产汇集了基础设施和功能性房地产的能力,使投资者能够通过公开市场、合作私募策略和直接私募投资来获取这些机会。随着世界从效率转向韧性,许多最重要的机会可能就在于那些使未来经济成为可能的资产中。

什么让增长成为可能

未来十年的关键投资问题将不仅仅是增长发生在哪里,而是什么让增长成为可能。

在能源、数据、住房、物流、食品、水和自然资源领域,使经济运转的资产正变得日益宝贵。这并不是因为世界放弃了创新或数字增长,而是因为创新和增长越来越依赖于物质产能、安全的投入、有韧性的系统和纪律严明的资本形成。

总的来说,重塑全球经济的各种力量指向同一个结论:未来可能更加实体化、更加本地化、更加依赖电力、更加依赖基础设施,并且更容易受到稀缺性的影响。理解这一转变的投资者可能更好地定位资金需求所在和价值积累之所。

富兰克林实物资产通过一个广泛的平台为投资者提供进入这些机会的途径,该平台涵盖公开市场、合作私人策略以及跨实物资产领域的直接私人投资。目标不仅仅是获得对实物资产类别的敞口,而是投资于支撑经济增长、韧性和现代社会运作的基本系统。随着世界从优先考虑效率转向更加重视韧性,许多重要的投资机会可能出现在那些保障基本流动、缓解关键瓶颈和为未来经济提供基础的资产中。

所有投资都涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。

股票证券受价格波动和可能损失本金的影响。

小盘股和中盘股比大盘股涉及更大的风险和波动性。

分散投资并不保证盈利或防范损失风险。

结合主题投资机会识别的投资策略及其表现,如果投资经理未能正确识别此类机会或主题以意外方式发展,可能会受到负面影响。将投资集中于医疗保健、信息技术(IT)和/或技术相关行业,相比投资于更广泛行业的策略,面临这些行业不利发展和价格波动的风险要大得多。

对私人市场投资的适合性仅适用于能够承担其相关风险(如私人信贷和私人股权)且潜在流动性有限的投资者。份额不会在公共交易所上市,且预计不会发展出二级市场。

完整英文原文

Executive Summary

Every investment era has an organizing belief. The last one favored efficiency: global supply chains, lean inventories, low-cost capital and businesses that could scale without owning much of the physical world. The next one is likely to favor resilience: secure inputs, reliable power, durable infrastructure, strategic locations and assets that keep economies functioning under stress.

Several forces are driving that shift. Geopolitical fragmentation is pushing countries and companies to regionalize supply chains and secure critical inputs. Domestic political pressure is increasing the role of the state in industrial policy, defense, housing, energy and infrastructure. Climate change is turning adaptation into a capital-allocation requirement. Artificial intelligence (AI) and electrification are exposing the physical constraints behind digital growth, particularly power, grid capacity, land, water and logistics. At the same time, elevated public and private debt burdens limit the flexibility of governments and markets just as investment needs are rising.

Together, these forces point in the same direction: The future is likely to be more physical, more local, more power-intensive, more infrastructure-dependent and more exposed to scarcity. For investors, the opportunity is not simply to own “hard assets.” It is to identify the assets that sit inside essential economic systems and help those systems function under stress.

We describe this as systems-led investing. It starts with the systems under pressure—energy, data, housing, logistics, food, water, natural resources and social infrastructure—but moves quickly to the investment question: Which assets are scarce, essential and capable of improving system resilience? In this environment, real assets are not peripheral allocations. They are increasingly the physical foundations of economic resilience.

Franklin Real Assets brings together capabilities across infrastructure and functional real estate, enabling investors to access these opportunities through public markets, partnered private strategies and direct private investments. As the world moves from efficiency to resilience, many of the most important opportunities are likely to be found in the assets that make tomorrow’s economy possible.

What Makes Growth Possible

The defining investment question of the next decade will not simply be where growth occurs. It will be what enables that growth.

Across energy, data, housing, logistics, food, water and natural resources, the assets that make economies function are becoming increasingly valuable. This is not because the world has abandoned innovation or digital growth. It is because innovation and growth increasingly depend on physical capacity, secure inputs, resilient systems and disciplined capital formation.

Taken together, the forces reshaping the global economy point toward the same conclusion: The future is likely to be more physical, more local, more power-intensive, more infrastructure-dependent and more exposed to scarcity. Investors who understand that shift may be better positioned to identify where capital is needed and where value may accrue.

Franklin Real Assets provides investors with access to these opportunities through a broad platform spanning public markets, partnered private strategies and direct private investments across the real-asset landscape. The objective is not simply to gain exposure to the real-asset class but to invest in the essential systems that underpin economic growth, resilience and the functioning of modern society. As the world shifts from prioritizing efficiency to placing greater emphasis on resilience, many of the most significant investment opportunities may be found in the assets that secure essential flows, relieve critical bottlenecks and provide the foundations for tomorrow’s economy.

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal.

Small- and mid-cap stocks involve greater risks and volatility than large-cap stocks.

Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against risk of loss.

Investment strategies which incorporate the identification of thematic investment opportunities, and their performance, may be negatively impacted if the investment manager does not correctly identify such opportunities or if the theme develops in an unexpected manner. Focusing investments in the health care, information technology (IT) and/or technology-related industries carries much greater risks of adverse developments and price movements in such industries than a strategy that invests in a wider variety of industries.

An investment in private market investments is suitable only for investors who can bear the risks associated with them (such as private credit and private equity) with potential limited liquidity. Shares will not be listed on a public exchange, and no secondary market is expected to develop.

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This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton. The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton ("FT") has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Franklin Templeton has environmental, social and governance (ESG) capabilities; however, not all strategies or products for a strategy consider “ESG” as part of their investment process. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction. Issued in the U.S. by Franklin Templeton, One Franklin Parkway, San Mateo, California 94403-1906, (800) DIAL BEN/342-5236, franklintempleton.com. Investments are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed. You need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view and print PDF documents. Download a free version from Adobe's website. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 下一个投资时代将更看重韧性而非效率,关注安全投入、可靠电力、持久基础设施以及能在压力下维持经济运转的资产。
  • 推动这一转变的力量包括地缘政治分裂、国内政治压力、气候变化、人工智能和电气化暴露的物理约束,以及高企的债务负担。
  • 投资者应关注处于关键经济系统内部并帮助其在压力下运转的资产,这被称为“系统导向投资”。
  • 实物资产日益成为经济韧性的物理基础,而非边缘配置。
  • 创新和增长越来越依赖物理容量、安全投入、韧性系统和纪律性资本形成。
风险
  • 所有投资都涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。
  • 股票证券面临价格波动和可能损失本金的风险。
  • 中小盘股比大盘股涉及更大风险和波动。
  • 分散投资不保证盈利或防止损失。
  • 主题投资策略可能因主题意外发展而受到负面影响。
  • 专注于医疗、IT或技术相关行业的投资面临更大风险。
  • 私募市场投资流动性有限,且预期无二级市场。