改变联邦基金利率需要12名投票者中的简单多数(7)。尽管7月29的FOMC会议显示了3次赞成加息的异议,我们根据过去的评论,识别出另外六名成员(下文中灰色标注)最有可能打破美联储的观望姿态,转而支持加息。今年早些时候,州长沃勒从宽松倾向转向中性立场,并最近表示,如果当前高于目标的通胀数据持续,他对再次转向鹰派持开放态度。州长杰斐逊和库克都曾暗示,如果通胀未能“很快”放缓,加息将被提上议程。一系列的鹰派言论表明,主席沃什可能投票推动加息,我们预计这一转变将在9月16会议的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会之后到来。
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关键论点
- 改变联邦基金利率需要12位投票者中的7票简单多数。
- 7月29日FOMC会议有3位反对者支持加息,表明支持力量在增长。
- 根据过往言论,另外六位成员可能打破观望立场。
- 州长沃勒已转向中立,并暗示若通胀持续则可能转向鹰派。
- 州长杰斐逊和库克均暗示若通胀未很快放缓,加息在考量之中。
- 主席沃什可能会在杰克逊霍尔研讨会后投票推动加息通过。
风险
- 通胀可能不会持续,削弱加息理由。
- 尽管有鹰派言论,美联储官员可能维持观望立场。
- 市场预期可能与美联储行动背离,引发波动。