II 全球机构情报
三井住友银行 · 2026/08/07

美国利率周报 20260807

前往官网原文 ↗
研报原件
1 / 110%

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

美国利率策略周报 8月 7, 2026 Joseph Abate,美国利率策略 Monty Gandhi,美国利率策略 Troy Ludtka,美国经济学 joseph.abate@smbcnikko-si.com mgandhi@smbc-cm.com troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212 893-1592 1 212 224-5114 1 212-224-5483 • 美国财政部保持国债拍卖规模稳定,并维持其“几个季度”的承诺。我们预计每周票据发行将在9月中旬前保持稳定。预计第三季度净票据供应将增加$250亿美元,而年终现金目标较低,为$850亿美元。1 • 如果美国财政部决定将其盈余现金投资于回购市场,多数交易商倾向于维持每日回购投资稳定。• 鉴于票据二级市场流动性更深且对交易商中介的依赖较少,报告更汇总和详细的交易层面数据可能更容易。• 在Warsh向市场提供反应函数并表明他关注哪些数据之前,隐含波动率可能仍高于实际波动率。这可能使长期买家保持观望。• 我们考察了一种简单的买入和卖出拍卖策略,适用于10和30年期债券,在过去一年中成功概率超过一半。• 我们预测7月通胀数据相对温和,总体CPI环比0.1%(同比3.5%),核心CPI环比0.18%(同比2.6%)。零售销售预计在总体水平和扣除汽车后均环比增加0.1%。更多透明度 美国国债市场监测的跨机构工作组正在考虑扩大TRACE(交易报告与合规引擎)的范围。理论上,扩大TRACE报告并提高市场透明度应改善市场流动性。随着对交易模式更多了解,做市商可能成为更积极的中介——缩小买卖价差、降低交易成本,并更频繁进入市场进行套利。自TRACE报告扩大以来,国债市场流动性有所改善,但部分可能反映了电子化交易的增加。目前,TRACE报告所有国债类型的每日交易量汇总数据。仅对于新发国债(OTRs),可获得更详细的价格和行业分类信息。虽然OTR板块流动性强、深度大且交易活跃,但仅占未偿还国债债务的2%。TRACE还报告交易层面数据,记录交易价格、成交量、时间和对手方类型。为保持匿名并防止过度披露,交易被分桶处理,顶层规模设有上限。无此上限的交易数据延迟6百万发布。1 新年假期的时点将社会保障金支付从1月初转移到12月,降低了年终现金余额。

SMBC美国利率策略周报 2 财政部借款咨询委员会(TBAC)研究了哪些类型的国债可以被收集和报告更多数据。他们考察了国库券、非活跃券和通胀保值债券(TIPS)。在这些中,最容易报告更多总量和详细交易层面数据的是国库券。国库券市场的每日交易量很高,且不集中在特定事件或日期(图1)。对于信息披露的敏感性似乎也较低。货币市场基金被要求每月报告其持仓,个别基金(和稳定币)常常以更高频率报告其持有量。同样,由于国库券是可互换的并定期增发,它们更容易被类似券种替代,因此其二级市场流动性对交易商中介和资产负债表的依赖较小。这些特性可能意味着国库券市场对扩大TRACE报告的敏感性较低。其他市场则不是这样。特定非活跃券CUSIP的交易稀少,TIPS市场的持仓集中。同样,TIPS交易集中在月末,因为投资组合指数再平衡(图2)。因此,这些证券的二级市场流动性更依赖交易商中介。Chaboud等人研究了同一证券中客户交易量在15分钟内的占比。2 虽然特定活跃券在15分钟内的交易量占比接近60%,但对于非活跃券或TIPS,这一比例低于20%。换句话说,交易商需要更长时间才能在这些证券中找到对冲的买方/卖方。因此,增加报告可能会使交易商更难在不透露市场信息的情况下谨慎地抵消其买卖。 不确定性溢价 不确定性仍然很高,债市受到新美联储主席(其反应函数仍未知)和未解决的伊朗局势的推动。伊朗尾部风险是双向的,即使人们承认没有好的选择。关于美联储,除非沃什承诺某种形式的前瞻指引或给出2 参见“美国国债市场中的全对全交易”,A. Chaboud, E. Correia Golay, C. Cox, M. Fleming, Y. Huh, F. Keane, K. Lee, K. Schwarz, C. Vega, 和 C. Windover,纽约联邦储备银行政策评论,2025年2月。图1:国库券交易量(十亿美元) 图2:TIPS交易量(十亿美元) 来源:美联储,SMBC日兴 来源:美联储,SMBC日兴 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1月-18 1月-20 1月-22 1月-24 1月-26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1月-18 1月-20 1月-22 1月-24 1月-26

SMBC美国利率策略周报 3 市场足以理解其反应函数,隐含波动率相对于已实现波动率可能仍将保持高位。高波动率本身会损害投资者需求,因为它使天平倾向于减少久期风险。期限溢价仍接近4月份 2025(45-90 bp个基点)之后区间的上端。一个可信的沟通框架可以压缩波动率并吸引长期买家回归。再融资拍卖前的布局 鉴于下周的再融资拍卖,我们讨论一个在过去十二个月及自 2023 以来行之有效的简单机械拍卖策略。该规则是在拍卖前的周五卖出一半仓位,在拍卖时买入全量,然后在拍卖后的周一卖出剩余一半。这是为了捕捉在招标前累积的折让而进行的直接尝试。在过去十二个月中,该策略在 10 年期品种上 58%% 的时间里有效(图 5),平均收益为 2.6bp,在 30 年期品种上 67%% 的时间里有效(图 6),平均收益为 1.7bp。最差回撤为 10 年期品种的 10bp 和 30 年期品种的 13bp,两者均出现在 2026 年2月。图 6 显示,在 30 年期品种中有两次回撤大于 10bp。将样本延伸至 2023 年,两种结论均保持成立,10 年期品种的最差两次回撤为 -17bp 和 -23bp(均在 2023 年)。图 3:1 年期/5 年期隐含波动率 图 4:10 年期期限溢价(纽约联储ACM模型) 资料来源:彭博,SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:美联储,SMBC日兴证券 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1月-25 7月-25 1月-26 7月-26 1年期/5年期隐含波动率 已实现波动率,21日 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 2月-24 8月-24 2月-25 8月-25 2月-26 8月-26

SMBC美国利率策略周报 4 图 5:10 年期 图 6:30 年期 资料来源:彭博,美国财政部,SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:彭博,美国财政部,SMBC日兴证券 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 8月-25 11月-25 2月-26 5月-26 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 8月-25 11月-25 2月-26 5月-26

SMBC美国利率策略周报 5 未来一周 • 消费者价格指数(7月,周三):我们预测7月份通胀数据将相对温和,总体CPI环比上涨0.1%(同比上涨3.5%),核心CPI环比上涨0.18%(同比上涨2.6%)。鉴于当月油价和农产品价格走势,我们估计能源价格环比下降-1.1%,而食品成本环比上涨0.3%。住房成本估计环比上涨0.2%,而扣除住房后的核心CPI预计仅环比上涨0.16%。二手车价格当月下跌-0.7%。然而,ISM指数衡量的价格表明,尽管中东紧张局势有所缓和,通胀压力仍然高企(图7)。在今年剩余时间内,由于房地产市场疲软和实际个人收入降温,我们预计核心CPI将趋于下降,这两者历来领先生于消费者价格分别18个月和12个月。 • 零售销售(7月,周五):对于7月份,我们预测零售销售总额和扣除汽车后的成分均仅环比增长0.1%,原因是汽油价格下跌-2.9%以及汽车销售下降1.2%(负值)。自四年前开始加息以来,房地产市场疲软已广泛拖累消费者支出和经济活动。扣除住房相关支出后,零售销售正在上升(图8)。图7:综合ISM价格指数(指数)和核心CPI(同比百分比) 图8:扣除住房相关项目的零售销售和住房相关支出(十亿美元) 资料来源:ISM、BEA、BLS、Haver、SMBC日兴证券 资料来源:人口普查局、Haver、SMBC日兴证券 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 综合ISM价格指数 核心CPI(同比百分比,右轴) 30 40 50 60 70 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 扣除住房敏感项目的零售销售(十亿美元) 住房敏感项目*(右轴,十亿美元)

SMBC美国利率策略周报 6 表 3:经济指标预测

机构免责声明
SMBC US Rates Strategy Weekly 7 Disclaimers This document has been prepared by SMBC Group (including, collectively or individually, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (“SMBC”) , SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., SMBC Nikko Securities Canada, Ltd., SMBC Capital Markets, Inc., SMBC Leasing and Finance, Inc., and JRI America, Inc.) and is being furnished by SMBC Group solely for use by the client(s) or potential client(s) to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered. SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc. (“SMBC Nikko America”) is a U .S.-registered broker- dealer. SMBC Nikko Securities Canada, Ltd. (“SMBC Nikko Canada”) is a U .S. and Canadian registered broker-dealer. SMBC Capital Markets, Inc. (“SMBC Capital Markets”) is a U .S. swap dealer registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( “ CFTC ” ). SMBC Group deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities. In the U.S., capital markets and other investment banking activities for SMBC Group are performed by a combination of SMBC Nikko America, SMBC Nikko Canada, and SMBC Capital Markets. Derivative activities may be performed by SMBC Capital Markets or SMBC. Lending and other commercial banking activities are performed by SMBC and its banking affiliates. SMBC operates in the U.S. through state-licensed branches, and representative offices, and does not accept deposits from the general public. SMBC is not a member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) and is not an FDIC-insured institution. Deposits placed with SMBC are not insured by the FDIC. FDIC deposit insurance coverage only protects against the failure of an FDIC-insured depository institution. Non- deposit products are not insured by the FDIC; are not deposits; and may lose value, subject to certain limited exceptions. This document is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be advice, a recommendation, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, or any commitment to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities, is not an offer or commitment to provide any financing or extension of credit or service, and does not contain any tax, accounting, or legal advice. Any transactions or strategies discussed herein do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any client, and may not be suitable for all parties. This document is not a research report, and neither this document nor its author(s) is subject to SMBC Group policies and procedures that apply to the globally branded research reports and research analysts of SMBC Group and its affiliates or to legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. This document has been prepared for and is directed exclusively at Qualified Institutional Buyers, sophisticated institutional investors, and other market professionals. It is not intended for distribution to or use by retail customers. SMBC Group makes no representations to, and does not warrant, this document’s accuracy or completeness. In preparing this document, SMBC Group has relied on information available from third parties, including public sources, and we have assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of such information. Any specific prices, indices or measures, including ranges, listed in this document were determined at or around the time the document was prepared and are subject to change without notice. SMBC Group expressly disclaims any liability for any results in connection with use of the information set forth herein, including, without limitation, any use of the information in the preparation of financial statements or accounting material. SMBC Group does not provide tax, accounting, or legal advice. Accordingly, any discussion of tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone for the purpose of avoiding any tax-related penalties. Prior to participating in any transaction or strategy, you should consult your own independent legal, tax, accounting and other professional advisors. This document may contain forward-looking statements, which may include projections, forecasts, income estimates, yield or return, future performance targets, or similar analysis. Any such forward-looking statements, prices, indices, or measures are based upon certain assumptions. All forward-looking statements are based on the information available at the time the document was prepared and SMBC Group is not obligated to provide an update. Any opinions, projections, price/yield information or estimates are subject to change without notice. Actual events may differ from those assumptions or available information. There can be no assurance that any estimated returns or projections will be realized, that forward-looking statements will materialize, or that actual results will not be materially different from those presented herein. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The value, price, or income from transactions or strategies may fall as well as rise. SMBC Group or an affiliate may have a position in any of the underlying instruments, assets, indices or rates mentioned in this document, at any time. This document is confidential and is the property of SMBC Group, subject to copyright. Any reproduction of this document, in whole or in part, is prohibited, and you may not release this document to any person, except to your advisors and other professionals to assist you in evaluating the document, provided that they are obligated, by law or agreement, to keep the document confidential. ©2026 SMBC Group. SMBC CONNECT is a trademark of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. All rights reserved.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 财政部保持定期拍卖规模稳定并维持“几个季度”的承诺;预计每周票据发行量在9月中旬前保持稳定;第四季度净票据供应增加2500亿美元,年末现金目标下调至8500亿美元。
  • 扩大TRACE报告可能改善流动性,但票据因可替代性和二级市场深度而不太敏感;非活跃券和TIPS更依赖做市商中介,增加报告可能有害。
  • 新美联储主席沃什的反应函数不确定,使隐含波动率相对于已实现波动率偏高,期限溢价接近区间上沿;可信的沟通框架可压缩波动率并吸引长期买家。
  • 机械拍卖策略(周五卖一半,拍卖时买全额,周一卖剩余)在过去12个月中10年期成功率为58%(平均收益+2.6bp),30年期为67%(平均+1.7bp)。
  • 预测7月CPI环比+0.1%(同比+3.5%),核心CPI环比+0.18%(同比+2.6%);零售销售环比+0.1%(总体和剔除汽车);预计核心CPI在年内剩余时间趋于下行。
风险
  • 伊朗局势仍未解决,可能导致油价和通胀波动。
  • 新美联储主席沃什可能不提供明确反应函数,使波动率保持高位。
  • 扩大TRACE报告可能削弱非活跃券和TIPS的做市商中介能力。
  • 拍卖策略并非万无一失;最差回撤10年-10bp,30年-13bp(2026年2月)。