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三井住友银行 · 2026/08/13

081326 医疗通胀脉搏

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医疗通胀脉搏 根据今日公布的PPI报告,7月医疗价格环比放缓至0.12%,为2月以来的最低水平(2026)。PPI医疗价格至关重要,因为它们直接计入PCE医疗价格,而这一组成部分在总体PCE和核心PCE平减指数中分别占17%和19%。因此,美联储偏好的通胀数据可能受到抑制,并可能缓解美联储和市场的一些通胀焦虑。我们预测总体PCE平减指数将上涨0.15%,核心PCE平减指数将上涨0.22%。请订阅我们的新研究网站以访问我们的内容(此处)。资料来源:美国劳工统计局、美国经济分析局、Haver、SMBC日兴证券 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2023 2024 2025 2026 PPI:医疗保健(环比%) PCE:医疗保健(环比%)

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关键论点
  • 医疗保健PPI通胀环比放缓至0.12%,为2026年2月以来最低。
  • 医疗保健价格直接计入PCE医疗保健价格,后者占整体PCE的17%和核心PCE的19%。
  • 受控的医疗保健通胀可能会缓解美联储和市场的通胀担忧。
  • SMBC预计整体PCE平减指数上涨0.15%,核心PCE平减指数上涨0.22%。
风险
  • 如果其他组成部分出现意外价格上涨,医疗保健通胀可能回升。
  • 实际PCE数据可能因修正或其他因素与预测存在偏差。