II 全球机构情报
三井住友银行 · 2026/08/14

081426 消费者回归趋势

前往官网原文 ↗
研报原件
1 / 110%

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

消费者回归趋势 7月份零售支出疲软,总体零售销售环比下降-0.6%,零售控制组(直接计入GDP数据)环比下降0.4%。因此,我们对3季度实际个人消费支出的跟踪预测已下调至+2.2%(此前为+2.5%)。此前2季度个人消费支出增长强劲,达到3.1%,因此本季度的趋势回归在预期之中。我们仍对3季度GDP和消费者前景持乐观态度,预计8月和9月的支出数据将反弹。请订阅我们的新研究网站以获取我们的内容(此处)。 实际零售销售 vs 实际个人消费支出… 来源:人口普查局、劳工统计局、经济分析局、Haver、三井住友银行日兴证券 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 实际零售销售(环比%) 实际个人消费支出(环比%,右轴)

机构免责声明
Disclaimers This document is provided by SMBC Group (including, collectively or individually, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., and their affiliates, as applicable) for informational purposes only, solely for use by the client(s) or potential client(s) to whom such document is directly addressed and delivered. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation of the sale or purchase of securities or other investments. This document was prepared by SMBC Group’s economist(s). The information contained herein is obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but SMBC Group and the economist(s) make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. In some cases, such information may be incomplete or summarized. The views, statements, assumptions, and forecasts expressed herein are those of the economist(s) and do not reflect the judgment of any other person or of SMBC Group. This document has been prepared based on assumptions and parameters determined by SMBC Group’s economist(s) in good faith. The assumptions and parameters used are not the only ones that could have been selected, and therefore no guarantee is given as to the accuracy, completeness, or reasonableness of any such quotations, disclosures, or analyses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of any future results. This document has been prepared for, and is directed at, institutional investors and other market professionals and is not intended for use by retail customers. It does not take into account any specific investment objective, financial situation, or particular need of any recipient(s). The information contained herein should, for whatever purpose, be used solely at the discretion and responsibility of the recipient(s). SMBC Group does not accept any liability or responsibility for any results in connection with the use of the information. Recipients are responsible for making final investment decisions and should do so at their own discretion following their own independent analysis and assessment of the merits of any transaction prior to execution, after conducting a careful examination of all documentation delivered, explanatory documents pertaining to listed securities, prospectuses, and other relevant documents. Any financial instruments discussed in this document may be speculative and may involve risks to principal and interest. Conflicts of Interest Disclosures The views, statements, assumptions, and forecasts expressed herein may differ from those expressed in the globally branded research produced by SMBC Group. The trading desks of SMBC Group trade or may trade as principal in the financial instruments that are the subject of this document, and the economist(s) may have consulted with the trading desks while preparing the document. The proprietary interests of SMBC Group may conflict with those of the recipient(s). SMBC Group may seek to do business with companies mentioned in this material and the trading desks may accumulate, be in the process of accumulating or have accumulated, long or short positions in financial instruments mentioned and may have acquired them at prices no longer available. The trading desks may also have or take positions inconsistent with the views expressed in this document or may have already traded on those views. This document is not a research report, and neither the document nor the economist(s) is/are subject to policies and procedures that apply to the globally branded research reports and research analysts of SMBC Group or to legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. This document is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This means that SMBC Group, and its directors, representatives, or employees, may have a long or short position in any financial instruments mentioned in this document and may make a market or trade in financial instruments economically related to the securities, derivatives or other underlying assets mentioned herein, in each case either as principal or as agent, at any time. No part of economist compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. The personal views of economists may differ from one another. This document is the property of SMBC Group, subject to copyright. Any reproduction of this document, in whole or in part, is prohibited and you may not release this document to any person, except to your advisors and professionals to assist you in evaluating the document, provided that they are obligated by law or agreement to keep the document confidential. Distribution, possession or delivery of this document in, to, or from certain jurisdictions may be restricted or prohibited by law. Recipients of this document are required to inform themselves of and comply with all such restrictions or prohibitions. © 2026 SMBC Group. All rights reserved.
AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
  • 7月零售支出疲软,总体零售销售环比下降0.6%,零售控制组环比下降0.4%。
  • 由于7月数据疲软,第三季度实际个人消费支出跟踪估计从此前的+2.5%下调至+2.2%。
  • 7月数据疲软之前,第二季度个人消费强劲增长3.1%,因此趋势回归在意料之中。
  • SMBC对第三季度GDP和消费前景保持乐观,预计8月和9月支出数据将反弹。
风险
  • 如果消费者情绪持续疲软,8月和9月支出反弹可能不会实现。
  • 如果零售支出继续下降,第三季度GDP估计可能面临下调。