仍在等待……7月FOMC会议纪要态度中性,委员会大体上预计,在“接连的供给冲击”推迟了去通胀进程后,通胀将逐步回落至2%。这一点很重要,因为7月28-29会议是在8月7和12,公布的较为疲软的就业报告和温和的通胀报告之前召开的,这些报告可能证实了许多“观望”投票者的看法,同时也会促使摇摆票更偏向鸽派。纪要还显示,“几位与会者认为,此前关税上调向价格水平的传导目前已基本完成”,这意味着未来的通胀报告在他们看来应该会有所缓和。展望未来,我们注意到,根据地区联储银行投票委员最近的意见(见下文),2027年地区联储银行投票委员的轮换可能比当前的投票阵容更偏鸽派。请订阅我们的研究新网站以访问我们的内容(此处)。2027年偏鸽派的地区联储银行投票轮换…… *=灰色行表示可能的摇摆票联储投票委员。
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关键论点
- FOMC会议纪要显示,在连续的供给侧冲击后,通胀应回落至2%。
- 会议纪要早于疲软的就业和温和的通胀报告发布,可能确认'观望'票委并推动摇摆票委转向鸽派。
- 多位参与者认为关税对价格的传导已基本完成,暗示未来通胀报告将趋于温和。
- 2027年地区联储银行投票委员的轮换可能比当前名单更偏鸽派。
风险
- 通胀可能不会如预期回落至目标水平。
- 关税传导可能尚未完全完成,价格压力持续。
- 如果地区联储银行评论改变,2027年的轮换可能不如评估的那么鸽派。