近期趋势发出了关于美国劳动力市场健康状况的混乱信号。自2025,末以来，即使失业率下降，就业/人口比率也在走低。这似乎在现代历史上没有先例：自1949,以来，每一次就业/人口比率出现类似下降，失业率都会上升，且通常失业率的上升幅度超过就业/人口比率的下降幅度（根据美国人口普查局和劳工统计局（BLS）的数据）。
本轮周期有所不同，主要是因为劳动力供应出现异常快速的收缩。劳动力市场的各种结构性变化可能正在起作用，包括老年（可能是高收入）工人退休增多。证据表明，整体劳动力需求仍然低迷，而这些结构性力量本身可能正在限制劳动力成本。
美国劳动力市场相互矛盾的信号使美联储追求其双重使命（最大化就业和价格稳定）变得复杂。然而，有一点似乎很清楚：劳动力市场不是通胀压力的来源；影响劳动力市场的结构性力量的净效应包括工资通胀缓和和单位劳动力成本受抑。这应有助于美联储在需要时适当应对更广泛的通胀压力。
Recent trends are sending confusing signals about the health of the U.S. labor market. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined. This appears to be without precedent in modern history: Since 1949, for every comparable decline in the employment/population ratio, the unemployment rate rose, and typically by more than the employment/population ratio fell (according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)).
This cycle has been different, largely due to an unusually rapid contraction in labor supply. Various structural changes in the labor market are likely contributing, including more retirements among older, potentially higher-income workers. Evidence suggests that overall labor demand remains tepid as well, and these structural forces may themselves be limiting labor costs.
Conflicting signals about U.S. labor markets complicate the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of its dual mandate (maximum employment and price stability). However, it does seem clear that labor markets are not a source of inflationary pressure; the net effects of the structural forces affecting labor markets include moderating wage inflation and subdued unit labor costs. This should help the Fed respond appropriately to broader inflationary pressures as needed.
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