由于伊朗和阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡进行的谈判取得进展，且巴基斯坦表示与伊朗就结束中东战争的谈判取得一定进展，油价仍面临下行压力。
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完整中文译文
大宗商品周报：原油下跌，霍尔木兹海峡谈判取得进展
能源——俄罗斯考虑延长柴油出口禁令
油价持续回落，ICE布伦特原油昨日收跌3.89%，并跌破$90美元/桶。今日亚洲早盘交易中，这一下行压力仍在延续。催化剂似乎是波斯湾谈判的积极信号。在访问德黑兰之后，巴基斯坦官员表示，他们在结束战争方面取得了重大进展。与此同时，伊朗和阿曼似乎就霍尔木兹海峡的航运路线接近达成协议。然而，双方之间的任何协议并不意味着我们将看到通过这一关键咽喉要道的石油流动恢复正常。我们可能需要看到美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁并放宽对伊朗的制裁，才会看到任何走向正常化的举措。
石油流动监控已悄然成为市场最关键的风险指标之一。油轮在通过霍尔木兹海峡时越来越多地关闭应答器，这使得可视性变得复杂，而与此同时，将原油运出波斯湾的穿梭运输明显增加。这些趋势加在一起，使得实时追踪霍尔木兹海峡的流动对交易员来说成为一项更具影响力且更具挑战性的任务。美国声称，平均有8-9百万桶/日的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡，这在短期内或许可以实现。然而，从更长的时间框架来看，这一数字似乎过于激进。一些船舶跟踪估算的数字要低得多，介于2百万桶/日至约6百万桶/日之间。
隔夜API库存数据显示，美国原油库存在过去一周增加了4.2百万桶。然而，成品油市场进一步收紧，汽油和馏分油库存分别下降了3.2百万桶和500千桶。
有报道称，鉴于俄罗斯炼油基础设施持续遭受袭击，俄罗斯正在考虑将柴油出口禁令延长至1年10月。这加剧了国内燃料市场的紧张。俄罗斯最初于8年7月宣布出口禁令，随后延长至1年9月。俄罗斯是全球第二大柴油出口国。因此，延长禁令对市场具有重要意义，尤其是考虑到我们目前在全球看到的中质馏分油供应紧张局面。
农产品——俄罗斯考虑暂停粮食出口关税
俄罗斯农业部正考虑在2026年底前暂停对小麦、大麦和玉米征收浮动出口关税。这一提议是在亚速海和黑海（占70%以上）的运输持续中断之际提出的。
完整英文原文
Oil prices remain under downward pressure as Iran and Oman talks on the Strait of Hormuz move forward and Pakistan signals some progress in talks with Iran to end the Middle East war
Energy – Russia looking to extending diesel export ban
Oil prices continue to retreat, with ICE Brent settling 3.89% lower yesterday and breaking below $90/bbl. This downward pressure continued in early morning Asia trading today. The catalyst appears to be positive signals from Persian Gulf talks. Following a visit to Tehran, Pakistani officials say they have made significant progress on ending the war. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman appear closer to an agreement on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, any agreement between these two parties does not mean we will see normalisation in oil flows through the key chokepoint. We would likely need to see the US lift its blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions on Iran before we see any move towards normalisation.
Oil‑flow surveillance has quietly become one of the market’s most critical risk metrics. Tankers are increasingly transiting the Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off, complicating visibility just as there’s been a noticeable pickup in shuttle movements moving crude out of the Persian Gulf. Together, these trends make real‑time tracking of Hormuz flows a far more consequential and challenging task for traders. The US claims that an average of 8-9m b/d of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be achievable over short time periods. However, over a longer time frame, this number seems aggressive. Several ship-tracking estimates are coming in much lower, ranging from 2m b/d to around 6m b/d.
Overnight API inventory data show US crude oil inventories rose by 4.2m barrels over the last week. However, the products market tightened further, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 3.2m barrels and 500k barrels, respectively.
Reports say Russia is considering extending its diesel export ban until 1 October amid ongoing attacks on refinery infrastructure in the country. This has tightened the domestic fuel market. Russia originally announced an export ban on 8 July, which was then extended until 1 September. Russia is the second-largest diesel exporter. So, the extended ban matters for the market, particularly given the tightness we are seeing globally in middle distillates.
Agriculture – Russia considers suspending grain export duty
Russia's Agriculture Ministry is considering suspending floating export duties on wheat, barley, and corn until the end of 2026. The proposal comes amid continued disruptions in shipments from the Azov Sea and Black Sea, which account for over 70%
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关键论点
- 霍尔木兹谈判进展压低油价，但正常化需美国解除制裁。
- 油轮关闭应答器使石油流通监测复杂化，实时跟踪面临挑战。
- 美国原油库存增加，汽油和馏分油库存下降。
- 俄罗斯延长柴油出口禁令，收紧全球中质馏分油市场。
- 在黑海运输中断背景下，俄罗斯考虑暂停谷物出口关税。
风险
- 中东局势进一步升级可能破坏霍尔木兹流量，尽管有谈判。
- 因监测缺口，霍尔木兹实际石油流量存在不确定性。
- 俄罗斯柴油出口禁令延长至10月后可能加剧供应紧张。
- 谷物出口关税暂停可能不会实现或不足以抵消运输中断的影响。