我们的每周持仓报告追踪截至25年8月2026日当周对冲基金在外汇和大宗商品期货中的持仓情况。
财政部回购后美元多头减少：投机者将总美元多头削减了8.3亿美元，降至27.6亿美元，主要受欧元、加元、瑞郎和新西兰元空头回补带动，而日元抛售仍在继续，因美日利率差异不利。
农产品多头头寸以创纪录速度激增：十大主要谷物和软商品的管理资金净多头头寸以有史以来最快的速度增加，其中玉米、糖、棉花和堪萨斯小麦的持仓达到多年高点，而CBOT小麦在价格飙升11%之前仍为净空头，因黑海供应风险恶化迫使空头撤退。
金属和能源持仓出现分化：黄金期货买盘在上涨6.2%的情况下仍相对克制，而铜的多头头寸则从高位回落。能源方面，由于霍尔木兹海峡流量增加降低了中东风险溢价，基金削减了布伦特原油多头头寸11%。
截至8月25日当周的COT外汇报告，反映了美国财政部债券回购公告后的市场反应，该公告最初令美元走弱，但随后在本报告期晚些时候出现部分买盘。总体而言，彭博美元现货指数在报告周内下跌约0.8%%，但上周五在Kevin Warsh于杰克逊霍尔发表鹰派讲话后，完全逆转了债券回购引发的跌势。
在此背景下，最初的反应不出意料是美元多头平仓，投机者转为净买入本报告追踪的八种IMM货币期货中的大部分。主要例外是日元。总体而言，投机性美元净多头减少了8.3亿美元，至27.6亿美元，延续了仅一个月前创下的约50亿美元纪录多头的急剧逆转。
在单个货币层面，欧元空头减少了38%%，此前投机者净买入22.7千份合约，相当于3.3亿美元，使净空头降至5.3亿美元。加元净空头减少23%%，即2.7亿美元，此前净买入36.6千份合约。瑞郎和新西兰元也出现大量空头回补，各自对美元的净空头分别减少约1.1亿美元。
英镑和澳元也出现适度净买入，但两者仍保持净空头，而墨西哥比索继续是八种货币中唯一对美元持有投机性净多头的货币。其相对强势继续受到有利的利差支撑——同样的动态，但方向相反，持续对日元构成压力。
与整体趋势相反，日元连续第二周出现净卖出，投机者卖出10.4千份合约，使净空头升至63.3千份合约，约合5亿美元。这一分化凸显了相对利率预期持续的重要性，美日利差仍然较大，限制了日元从美元整体走弱中获益的能力。
在大宗商品领域，截至8月25日的最新报告周，涵盖了美国国债意外回购公告发布后的时期，该公告引发了对硬资产、尤其是贵金属的抢购，同时伴随的美元走弱为整个大宗商品板块提供了更广泛的支撑。这也是一个地缘政治紧张局势在黑海地区及其周边升级的一周，而中东局势的暂时缓和则促进了通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油流量增加，并部分化解了石油市场的地缘政治风险溢价。
当周，彭博大宗商品指数上涨1.1%%，除畜牧业外的农业板块以及贵金属板块领涨，工业金属同样走高。这些涨幅足以抵消能源板块的下跌。投机者通过削减布伦特原油、豆油和畜牧业的净多头头寸作出回应，而大多数其他市场则出现净买入。再次，最强劲的需求集中在谷物和软性商品上，这一板块在几周内已从相对被低配转变为持有越来越多的投机性净多头头寸。
在其他方面，对投资金属强劲上涨的持仓反应相对温和。黄金在报告周内上涨6.2%%，而管理资金净多头仅增加4%千份合约至151.3千份，接近其一年高位。白银和铂金的百分比涨幅更大，尽管起始头寸要小得多。这表明，对财政部公告的强劲价格回应并未伴随期货持仓同样激进的增加，可能表明需求也来自其他来源。
上周五，在凯文·沃什于杰克逊霍尔发表偏鹰派讲话后，黄金引领贵金属板块大幅下挫，他在讲话中承诺对抗通胀，提升了美联储可能在年底前加息的预期。这种疲软延续到了今天的交易时段，此前金价上周五收盘跌破其200日移动均线，目前位于美元4,528,，迫使交易员重新评估短期技术面展望。下一个关键支撑位在美元4,328,附近，即8月涨势的50%回撤位。考虑到美国债务约40万亿美元带来的长期财政挑战并未消失，关注美元和债券收益率。
农业：在本报告追踪的十大主要谷物和软性商品期货中，过去两周管理资金净多头合计激增546千份合约，创下有记录以来最快速度，总量上升至超过1.1百万份合约，为四年多来最高，名义敞口超过40亿美元。这一转变的速度尤为引人注目，因为几个月前合计头寸还接近中性。
买入以玉米为首，基金净增126千份合约，将净多头推升至376.5千份合约，为四年多来最高。大豆也吸引了大量需求，净多头增加46.6千份合约至198.3千份，而白糖又出现55.7千份合约的净买入，将头寸推升至两年新高的207.1千份合约。棉花也触及两年高位，达到95.8千份合约，而堪萨斯城小麦净多头升至44.1千份合约，为四年高位。
一个显著的例外是芝加哥期货交易所的小麦，尽管出现部分空头回补，但截至上周二，投机者仍持有超过 100,000 份合约的净空头头寸。这有助于解释为何随后几日价格涨幅超过 11%，因为空头在俄罗斯出口大幅放缓以及乌克兰运输中断不仅威胁当前出口还威胁未来播种的消息下撤退。因此，基本面背景对于剩余的小麦空头而言已变得相当不利。
COT报告由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）以及ICE欧洲交易所（针对布伦特原油和柴油）发布。报告于每周五美股收盘后发布，涵盖截至前一个周二的持仓情况。报告将期货市场的未平仓合约按资产类别分为不同类别的市场参与者。
大宗商品：生产商/贸易商/加工商/用户、掉期交易商、管理基金以及其他需报告持仓者
金融产品：交易商/中介机构、资产管理人/机构、杠杆基金以及其他需报告持仓者
外汇：商业与非商业参与者之间的更宽泛划分，后者通常被视为投机者
我们主要关注投机者（如对冲基金和趋势跟踪型商品交易顾问，CTA）行为的主要原因如下：
他们更可能设置严格的止损，且没有需要进行对冲的实物敞口
这使得他们对基本面或技术面价格变化反应更为迅速
他们的持仓情况能揭示主要趋势，而极端持仓也有助于识别可能出现的反转或回调
值得注意的是，这一群体往往倾向于预期、加速并放大已由基本面推动的价格走势。作为动量追随者，这些交易者通常在强势时买入，在弱势时卖出。因此，他们往往在周期接近顶部时持有最大多头敞口，或在市场即将触底前持有最大空头敞口。因此，极端持仓可作为有用的反向指标，但很少单独使用：时机仍取决于改变当前趋势的基本面或技术面催化剂。
如需市场评论和见解（而非交易建议），请关注我并在Twitter和Substack上参与讨论。
Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 25 August 2026.
Dollar longs cut after the Treasury buyback: Speculators reduced the aggregate dollar long by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, led by short covering in the euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar, while yen selling continued amid unfavourable US-Japan rate differentials.
Agriculture length surges at a record pace: The managed-money net long across ten major grains and softs jumped at the fastest pace on record, with corn, sugar, cotton and Kansas wheat reaching multi-year positioning highs, while CBOT wheat remained net short ahead of an 11% price surge as worsening Black Sea supply risks forced shorts to retreat.
Metals and energy positioning diverge: Gold futures buying remained relatively restrained despite a 6.2% rally, while copper length eased from elevated levels. In energy, funds cut Brent longs by 11% as increased Hormuz flows reduced the Middle East risk premium.
The COT update on forex covering the week to 25 August captured the aftermath of the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement, which initially weakened the dollar before some buying returned later in the reporting period. Overall, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ended the reporting week down around 0.8%, before fully reversing the buyback-driven decline by last Friday following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.
Against this backdrop, the initial reaction was unsurprisingly one of dollar-long liquidation, with speculators turning net buyers of most of the eight IMM currency futures tracked in this report. The main exception was the Japanese yen. Overall, the aggregate speculative dollar long was cut by USD 8.3 billion to USD 27.6 billion, extending a sharp reversal from the record long of around USD 50 billion reached just one month earlier.
At the individual currency level, the euro short was cut by 38% after speculators bought a net 22.7k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.3 billion, leaving the net short at USD 5.3 billion. The Canadian dollar saw its net short reduced by 23%, or USD 2.7 billion, following net buying of 36.6k contracts. The Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar also attracted sizeable short covering, each seeing their respective dollar-equivalent shorts reduced by around USD 1.1 billion.
Sterling and the Australian dollar also saw modest net buying, although both remained firmly net short, while the Mexican peso continued to stand out as the only currency among the eight carrying a speculative net long against the dollar. Its relative strength continues to be supported by favourable rate differentials - the same dynamic, but in reverse, that continues to weigh on the Japanese yen.
Going against the broader trend, the yen saw net selling for a second consecutive week, with speculators selling 10.4k contracts and lifting the net short to 63.3k contracts, or around USD 5 billion. The divergence highlights the continued importance of relative rate expectations, with the still-wide US-Japan yield differential limiting the yen's ability to benefit from the broader bout of dollar weakness.
In commodities, the latest reporting week to 25 August covered the period following the surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar weakness provided broader support across the commodity complex. It was also a week in which the geopolitical temperature rose in and around the Black Sea region while a temporary easing in the Middle East contributed to an increase in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a partial unwinding of the oil market's geopolitical risk premium.
During the week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.1%, with strong gains across agriculture excluding livestock and, not least, precious metals, while industrial metals also advanced. These gains more than offset losses across the energy sector. Speculators responded by cutting length in Brent crude, soybean oil and livestock, while most other markets saw net buying. Once again, the strongest appetite was concentrated in grains and softs, a sector that in a matter of weeks has moved from being relatively under-owned to carrying an increasingly sizeable speculative long.
Elsewhere, the positioning response to strong gains across the investment metals was relatively muted. Gold rose 6.2% during the reporting week, while the managed-money net long increased by just 4% to 151.3k contracts, leaving it close to its one-year high. Silver and platinum saw larger percentage increases albeit from considerably smaller starting positions. This suggests that the strong price response to the Treasury announcement was not accompanied by an equally aggressive build-up in futures positioning, potentially pointing to demand coming from other sources as well.
On Friday, gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into today's session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus on the dollar and bond yields considering the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.
Agriculture: Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in this report, the combined managed-money net long has now in the past two weeks surged by 546k contracts, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, with the combined position having been close to neutral only a few months ago.
The buying was led by corn, where funds added a net 126k contracts to lift the net long to 376.5k contracts, the highest in more than four years. Soybeans also attracted sizeable demand, with the net long rising by 46.6k contracts to 198.3k, while sugar saw another 55.7k contracts of net buying, lifting the position to a fresh two-year high of 207.1k contracts. Cotton also reached a two-year high at 95.8k contracts, while the Kansas City wheat net long rose to 44.1k contracts, a four-year high.
One notable exception was CBOT wheat, where speculators, despite some short covering, still held a net short position of more than 100,000 contracts by last Tuesday. This helps explain why prices jumped more than 11% in the days that followed, as short sellers retreated on news that Russian exports had slowed sharply and disruptions to Ukrainian shipments increasingly threatened not only current exports but also future planting. The fundamental backdrop has therefore become considerably less comfortable for remaining wheat shorts.
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close, covering positions held as of the previous Tuesday. The reports break down open interest in futures markets into different categories of market participants, depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money, and Other Reportables Financials: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds, and Other Reportables Forex: A broader breakdown between commercial and non-commercial participants, with the latter generally viewed as speculators
The main reasons we focus primarily on the behaviour of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTAs, are:
They are more likely to have tight stops and no underlying physical exposure that needs to be hedged
This makes them more reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
Their positioning provides insight into major trends, while extreme positions can also help identify when a reversal or correction may be looming
It is worth noting that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate and amplify price moves that have often already been set in motion by fundamentals. As followers of momentum, these traders typically buy into strength and sell into weakness. As a result, they are often found holding their largest long exposure near the peak of a cycle or their largest short exposure ahead of a trough in the market. For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.
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