宏观：周末霍尔木兹海峡附近的袭击事件与美联储主席的鹰派言论碰撞，为本周定下基调。
股票：美股因鹰派美联储信号下滑，欧洲股市反弹，亚洲股市从早盘跌幅中恢复，因利率担忧和油价上涨打击科技股。
数字资产：矿工和国库公司遭大幅抛售，而币种本身几乎未动。
大宗商品：原油因供应风险重现而跳涨，沃什言论打压贵金属；投机者以创纪录速度涌入农产品。
固定收益：美联储主席沃什周五讲话转鹰派，美债收益率曲线熊陡。全球收益率跟随美债收益率走高。
外汇：沃什讲话偏鹰派，美元走强，美元兑日元一度交投于160.00上方。
自动质量提示本研报仍可阅读，但 AI 分析或译文低于优选质量阈值，已进入改进队列。重要判断请同时核对官网原文。
完整研报正文
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市场快评 - 沃什转鹰派，霍尔木兹海峡风险重返
市场驱动因素与催化事件
宏观
美联储主席凯文·沃什上周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的美联储研讨会上发表了偏鹰派的讲话，他宣称通胀并未放缓，利率是美联储实现其使命的“主要工具”，但他继续批评美联储先前前瞻指引政策的理念，也没有就政策收紧提供任何具体暗示。“我今天站在这里，承诺的是纪律，而不是某个决定。”
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，他预计日本央行将在政策上“做出正确的选择”，并称他预计将在即将于今天在北卡罗来纳州举行的G20峰会期间与日本央行行长植田和男会面。日本财务省上周五表示，其为支撑日元而进行的干预已动用了超过15万亿日元（96亿美元）。
周末的军事交锋重置了地缘政治背景。美国周日袭击了据报正准备在霍尔木兹海峡布雷的伊朗火箭发射器，这是一个多月来的首次此类行动，同时美国加大了制裁压力。每天仍有约6至8百万桶原油通过该海峡。一名伊朗官员表示，与华盛顿重新进行谈判并非不可能。
更多内容请参见我们的宏观分析与宏观经济新闻
财报事件
周二：帕洛阿尔托网络、美敦力、MongoDB、Credo科技、蔚来、GitLab、戴尔科技
周三：博通、Snowflake、慧与、NetApp、Five Below
周四：Zscaler、露露乐蒙、Ciena、Samsara、DocuSign、Planet Labs
如需查看所有宏观、财报和股息事件，请参阅盛宝财经日历。
股票
美国：上周五，标普500指数下跌500，道指跌幅不到0.3%，纳斯达克0.1%指数下跌100，因美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔的偏鹰派言论推高了利率预期，并打击了科技股。英伟达下跌0.7%，而迈威尔科技尽管盈利超预期，但因前景未能达到高涨的AI预期，股价重挫4.6%。PayPal在Stripe和Advent International放弃收购谈判后暴跌10.3%，而亚马逊因分析师基于AI驱动零售效率提升而上调目标价，股价上涨12.7%。市场现在转向美国就业数据和9月美联储决策。
欧洲：上周五，斯托克4.0%指数上涨600，德国DAX指数上涨0.5%，富时0.8%指数上涨100，法国CAC0.3%指数反弹40，法国股市回升，汽车股领涨。宝马大涨1%，佛吉亚上涨4.5%，此前花旗将这两只股票列入积极催化剂观察名单，指出预期低迷，且即将到来的公司及政策事件可能带来上行空间。依视路陆逊梯卡在宣布股票回购后上涨5.1%，法国银行股也从周四的抛售中反弹。欧洲投资者现在面临油价走强和利率风险上升这一同样令人不安的组合。
亚洲：周一，亚洲股市从大幅低开中强劲反弹，日本日经指数下跌2.4%，韩国Kospi指数下跌0.2%，此前分别一度下跌超过0.3%和2%。市场最初因美联储主席凯文·沃什的偏鹰派言论和油价上涨而抛售，引发对利率和通胀的担忧，但买家迅速回归科技股。中国券商股仍是焦点，上市券商公布上半年合并利润同比增长超过3%，而比亚迪表示上半年海外收入首次超过国内收入（40%年）。
更多内容请参阅我们的股票交易 - 股市分析与新闻。
数字资产
上周五，上市加密货币相关股票遭到大幅抛售，尽管周末期间币价几乎未动。IREN在第四财季业绩公布后下跌12.53%，该季度AI云收入首次超过挖矿收入，但减值拖累了业绩。Marathon下跌10.11%，CleanSpark下跌9.96%，Cipher下跌9.54%，Riot下跌9.05%，Strategy下跌7.34%，Coinbase下跌6.33%。
美国现货比特币基金在8月24至28日当周吸引了约924百万美元的资金流入，使该月迄今的资金流入保持在3亿美元以上。资金流动并不均匀，IBIT吸引了228百万美元，而其他基金则出现赎回。
大宗商品
原油价格跳涨，布伦特原油交易价回升至每桶90,美元上方，因中东爆发新的战斗，且美国表示可能对伊朗实施新的二级制裁。美国袭击了伊朗的火箭发射器，据报这些发射器正准备在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷，而约旦军方拦截了八枚导弹，此前德黑兰军方声称对美国在约旦的军队发动了袭击。这些事态发展再次降低了冲突结束的可能性。然而，鉴于估计每天有6至8百万桶原油通过该海峡，上行风险目前受到限制。
黄金领跌贵金属板块，此前凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表偏鹰派讲话，承诺抗击通胀，提升了美联储可能在年底前加息的预期。跌势延续至周一交易日，此前金价上周五收盘跌破其200日均线，目前位于每盎司4,528,美元，迫使交易员重新评估短期技术前景。下一个关键支撑位在每盎司4,328,美元附近，即8月涨势的50%回撤位。焦点仍在于美元和债券收益率，而美国债务约达40万亿美元所带来的长期财政挑战并未消失。
近期主要农产品大宗商品的涨势，受到战争和天气相关的供应担忧支撑，引发了创纪录的两周投机性多头头寸累积。在截至25月的两周内，十大主要谷物和软商品期货的基金经理净多头头寸增加了创纪录的523,000份合约，至超过1百万份合约，为四年来最高，名义价值超过40亿美元。转向速度尤其引人注目，可能使近期建立的多头头寸面临看涨叙事突然转变的风险。
更多内容见我们的《大宗商品新闻、分析及评论》
固定收益
周五，美国国债收益率曲线出现熊市趋陡走势，因美联储主席沃什的讲话比预期更为鹰派。周一亚洲早盘，收益率略有回落，但基准两年期收益率仍比沃什讲话前高出约七个基点，交易价格接近自2024末以来的区间上沿，因市场对9月16美联储FOMC加息概率的预期升至50%以上。基准10年期美国国债收益率比讲话前高出约三个基点，报4.71%，债券市场正关注关键的4.75%区域，该区域在过去一个月多次成为区间顶部。
受美联储主席沃什鹰派讲话影响，上周五晚些时候和周一早间，全球债券收益率随美国国债走高。德国基准两年期收益率上升四个基点，收于略低于2.91%的水平，为今年以来及自-2024中期以来的最高水平。日本基准两年期国债（JGB）收益率上升两个基点，至1.73%，创下自-1990年代中期以来的现代新高。
外汇
美联储主席沃什偏鹰派的讲话导致美元大幅上涨。美元兑日元自7月底和8月初官方干预以来首次在周五和周一早盘短暂突破160.00。至欧洲早盘，美元兑日元回到159.80区域，仅略高于沃什讲话前的水平。欧元兑美元的反应更为顽固，周一欧洲早盘仍低于1.1600，明显低于沃什讲话前的1.1640–1.1650区域。
瑞典克朗在G10货币中表现突出，因为瑞典央行尚未在本周期内加息，且被认为可能行动缓慢。受美联储主席沃什周五讲话影响，欧元兑瑞典克朗从11.09升至接近11.15，创下几乎整整一年来的最高水平。
更多外汇内容请参见我们的专门板块：外汇交易新闻与分析
完整英文原文
Market drivers and catalysts
Macro: A weekend strike near Hormuz collided with a hawkish Fed chair to reset the week
Equities: US stocks slipped on hawkish Fed signals, Europe rebounded, Asia recovered from early losses as rate fears and higher oil hit technology.
Digital Assets: Miners and treasury companies were sold hard while the coins themselves barely moved
Commodities: Crude jumps on renewed supply risks as Warsh drives precious metals slump; speculators rush into agriculture at record pace
Fixed Income: US Treasury yield curve bear flattens on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh speech Friday. Global yields follow US Treasury yields higher.
Currencies: USD stronger on hawkish Warsh speech, USDJPY briefly traded above 160.00.
Macro
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday as he declared that inflation is not slowing and that interest rates are the “predominant tool” for the Fed to achieve its mandate, though he continued to criticize the notion of the Fed’s former forward guidance policy or to provide any specific hints on policy tightening. “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Bank of Japan will “do the right thing” on policy and said he expected to meet with Bank of Japan governor Ueda on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit, which starts today in North Carolina. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Friday that its intervention to support the JPY had deployed over JPY 15 trillion (USD 96 billion).
A weekend military exchange reset the geopolitical backdrop. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, its first such attack in over a month, alongside increased sanctions pressure. Roughly 6 to 8 million barrels of crude still transit the strait each day. An Iranian official said renewed talks with Washington are not impossible.
More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News
Earnings events
Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks, Medtronic, MongoDB, Credo Technology, NIO, GitLab, Dell Technologies
Wednesday: Broadcom, Snowflake, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Five Below
Thursday: Zscaler, Lululemon, Ciena, Samsara, DocuSign, Planet Labs
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares. Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations. PayPal tumbled 12.7% after Stripe and Advent International abandoned takeover talks, while Amazon gained 4.0% after an analyst raised its price target on improving AI-driven retail efficiency. Markets now turn to US jobs data and the September Fed decision.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rebounded 1% on Friday as French stocks recovered and autos led gains. BMW jumped 4.5% and Forvia rose 5.1% after Citi placed both on positive catalyst watches, pointing to depressed expectations and potential upside from upcoming company and policy events. EssilorLuxottica gained 2.4% after announcing a share buyback, while French banks also recovered from Thursday’s selloff. European investors now face the same uncomfortable mix of firmer oil prices and higher-rate risk.
Asia: Asian equities recovered sharply from steep opening losses on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei down 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi 0.3% lower after earlier falling more than 2% and 3%, respectively. Markets initially sold off as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks and higher oil prices raised concerns over rates and inflation, but buyers quickly returned to technology shares. Chinese brokerages remained in focus after listed securities firms reported combined first-half profits up more than 40%, while BYD said overseas revenue exceeded domestic revenue for the first time in the first half of 2026.
More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News
Digital Assets
The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. IREN fell 12.53% after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed. Marathon lost 10.11%, CleanSpark 9.96%, Cipher 9.54% and Riot 9.05%, with Strategy down 7.34% and Coinbase 6.33%.
US spot bitcoin funds drew about USD 924 million over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.
Commodities
Crude jumped, with Brent trading back above USD 90, as fresh fighting flared in the Middle East and the US signalled it was likely to unveil new secondary sanctions on Iran. The US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, while Jordan’s army intercepted eight missiles after Tehran’s military claimed attacks against American forces in the kingdom. These developments have once again reduced the prospects of bringing the conflict to an end. However, with an estimated 6–8 million barrels per day of crude flowing through the Strait, the upside risk is for now being capped.
Gold led the precious metals sector sharply lower following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, in which he pledged to fight inflation, lifting expectations that the Fed could raise rates before year-end. The weakness extended into Monday’s session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally. Focus remains on the dollar and bond yields, while the longer-term fiscal challenge posed by US debt at around USD 40 trillion has not disappeared.
The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.
More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary
Fixed Income
The US Treasury yield curve bear flattened Friday in reaction to the more hawkish than expected speech from Fed Chair Warsh. Yields eased slightly in early Monday trading in Asia, but the benchmark two-year yield is still some seven basis points higher than it was before Warsh’s speech, trading near the top of the range since late 2024 as the odds of a September 16 FOMC rate hike rose above 50%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is some three basis points higher than before the speech at 4.71% as the Treasury market eyes the key 4.75% area that has marked the top of the range on multiple occasions over the last month.
Global bond yields rose in line with US Treasuries late Friday and early Monday in the wake of Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. The benchmark German two-year yield lifted four basis points to close the week just below 2.91%, the highest level for the year and since mid-2024. Japan’s benchmark two-year JGB yield rose two basis points to 1.73%, a new modern high since the mid-1990s.
Currencies
The US dollar rose sharply on Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. USDJPY traded through 160.00 Friday and briefly in early Monday trading for the first time since the official intervention in late July and at the beginning of August. By early European hours, USDJPY returned to the 159.80 area, only slightly above the levels trading before Warsh’s speech. The reaction in EURUSD was stickier, as it remained below 1.1600 by early Monday in Europe, solidly below the 1.1640–1.1650 area trading before Warsh’s speech.
The Swedish krona stands out among the weaker G10 currencies as the Riksbank has yet to hike its policy rate for the cycle and is seen as likely slow to do so. EURSEK rose from 11.09 to nearly 11.15 in the wake of US Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday, posting its highest level in almost exactly a year.
More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis
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AI 分析
由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文
关键论点
- 美联储主席沃什的鹰派讲话推升了利率预期，打压股市并提振美元。
- 美国袭击霍尔木兹海峡附近的伊朗火箭发射器，加剧供应风险，布伦特原油升破90美元。
- 黄金收于200日均线下方，引发技术性抛售。
- 农产品投机性头寸创纪录高位，增加了急剧平仓的风险。
风险
- 中东冲突升级可能进一步推高油价和通胀。
- 美联储加息预期可能进一步上升，施压股市和贵金属。
- 农产品投机性头寸过度，可能急剧平仓。
- 美国债务担忧可能重现，影响长期收益率。